ValuePickr- Mumbai


(Anandh) #278

I am planning to organize the next larger scale meetup for Mumbai folks on May 12, 2018(Saturday) at KJ Somaiya Polytechnic, 2pm. As usual, this would have a nominal fee and invite only. This is NOT the registration link, this will be emailed when the poll is closed
UPDATE: THe Poll is now closed. Please PM or email me if any queries. The registration link will be posted here if any slots available
Please vote on the following

  • Yes, I can attend and interested present
  • Yes, I can attend but not interested to present
  • No, I would not be able to attend
  • Tenative, Not sure

0 voters

Please suggest topics/formats you wish. If any other topics, please PM me(Do not comment on this thread, I may add this as a topic if wide interest)

  • Stock Ideas(Brief 10min format)-min 20% CAGR expected 3yrs
  • Industry Discussions
  • Thematic(eg Electric Cars, Currencies)
  • Investment strategy/style
  • 2018 Outlook-India/Global
  • Technicals/Technofunda

0 voters


(viral8686) #279

Hi anand, i am interested in attending. Not able to PM you. Can u mention ur email id plz


(Amit Agarwal) #280

i am interested to share & learn


(Adia) #281

Hi I am interested to attend this.


(Anandh) #282

We had the May-18 meetup at KJ Somaiya Polytechnic on May 12, 2018(Saturday). The meetup was open to past/present/future contributors of ideas, and hence not quite open to all.

@sukhlani presented a brief on the graphite electrodes industry and helped people understand the interplay between industries(lithium ion cells, electric cars, steel) and pet-coke. Also the concept of value added commodity and capacity cycles. Folks came away with a better understanding of the whole HEG/Graphite sector play, from someone who had riden the story.
@amangoklani presented his learnings from the book ‘100 Baggers’ with some examples. Some discussion followed the subject of which companies could be felt to ‘do good’
Rahul Ramchandani explained his investment thesis on Edelweiss, with a caveat that we should not lose track of the core lending business, while tracking the AUM play. An interesting discussion followed on potentially eroding mutual fund moats(index fund competition)
@ravish explained his thesis on PCR kit manufacturer Kilprest India, duly aided by Ravindra Bapat who is an industry veteran. The discussion centred around the industry economics attractiveness for MNC, and the possibly deep run away for the kits.
Harsh Gupta discussed his thesis on Narayana Healthcare, with some unique takes on their remuneration, business model and social purpose.
Amit Darji from Navsari joined us today to elaborate on his thesis with LT Foods. With his practical understanding of the business, he enriched our understanding of the rice sector. Discussion centred around value added mix, GST impact etc.
@andy161161 presented some points from the 25th anniversary edition of the book ‘Financial Shenanigans’ released in Mar-2018.

These presentations below are not a specific investment recommendation, and not for further circulation. Please use it in this context
Kilpest India By Ravish Malav.pptx (54.2 KB)
Financial Shenanigans M18 presentation.pptx (44.0 KB)
Valuepick- Mumbai Meet-LT Foods.pptx (53.8 KB)
A perspective on GE.pdf (537.3 KB)
Edelweiss.pdf (1.1 MB)
100Baggers_Learnings.pdf (2.2 MB)
Narayana Healthcare.pptx.pdf (2.9 MB)

Please PM me with your profile/brief introduction if you wish to be considered for future meetups


(sko5prasad) #283

Thanks anandh for sharing the presentations of meet.


(ragsingh0305) #284

I am fairly new to value picker forum based out of Mumbai, and just realized this wonderful forum…I think i missed a quite a lot of not being part of this group…better late than never.
Is there any formal process to join the group?
My brief Profile
I am a credit analyst working with India’s leading rating agency. Have total exp of 11 years covering various commodities sector.

It would be great if i can join the group.


(kapilgokharu) #285

I am also want to attend the Meet up.

Kapil


(ragsingh0305) #286

Kindly some1 reply please…thanks!


(bkasal) #287

andy161161 might be announcing once he finalizes logistics for meet.


(tbhavesh) #288

I would also like to be part of the event.


(amitsoni) #289

I would like to be a part of this meet


(Anandh) #290

Hi All,
The next meetup is planned tentatively for Aug 3rd week/4th week. Please use the poll to confirm the topics you are interested to discuss and also the participation type. If you indicate type 2/3, I would message you for further inputs. To clarify, those who vote for ‘attend only’ would receive an invite only if there are slots available after other categories

  • Attend only
  • Attend and help review/improve presentations
  • Attend and present stock discussion(15min+Q&A) or industry overview(25miN+Q&A)

0 voters

What type of meetup do you suggest. Select the top 2 preferences

  • Stock specific themes
  • Thematic(AI/Reforms etc) with list of impacted stocks
  • Investing story(if >25% CAGR in last 3yrs)
  • Industry analysis(eg Pharma)
    *Fraud/Corporate misadventures

0 voters

The venue will be KJ Somaiya only like always from 2pm-6pm. If we do not have enough responses, a smaller scale invite only meetup would be done


(smart_harsh) #293

interested in attending. Maybe can do a quick refresh on my last picks.


(Anandh) #294

Hi All, we will be meeting next weekend Sunday (Sept 2nd) at Somaiya. I will send out the invites shortly. by EMAIL with the registration link If you do not receive an invite, it is likely due to space issues.


(Anandh) #297

The registration link is here which will be active for a day. Beyond that, please message me privately and NOT on this thread


(vikrantmehta888) #299

I attended the yesterday’s Meet, it was the first time I attended the same and it was actually a great experience as it helped in understanding several different viewpoints of looking at the same opportunity. Learning about other’s mistakes in the markets from them in person is a big plus.

Kudos to Mitesh Gangar for an excellent presentation on GMDC which he prepared in a very short time. Amazing presentation by Sane about his learning from the market, really helps noobs like me. Story of Kitex told was mindblowing!

Thanks all to make it happen and I am definitely attending all the future ones!


(Anandh) #300

The Sep-18 meetup held after a long time saw a turnout of ~100%, which is either a testimony to a bull market, or to the curation of the audience. Either ways, this was unprecedented. The turnout of 45 included attendance from Pune and Surat too. The agenda discussed was as follows

@amey153 discussed his analysis of Kitex Industries, and updated for recent observations from the annual report, and tried to cull out lessons learnt. Interesting points were triangulating private company performance with its listed peer, mean reversion, related party revenue routing and the risk of high customer concentration
@Yogesh_s discussed lessons learnt from his investment journey, with errors of omission and of commission. The tale of Apple explained the risk of sizing TAM(Total Addressable Market), as also how investment approach evolve over time such as paying up for B2C stocks, keeping macro checks etc
@jprasun discussed his investment thesis on CDSL, a seemingly simple play, but also explained on how to split its revenue streams into regulated annuity based/market linked unregulated etc. He presented the audience a case study on valuing it when estimates ranged between 20x-30x core earnings, which was not too far from reality. Discussions also went into the divergance from CFO to PAT due to an accounting rule
@kashish24 explained his investment thesis on a SME player Sirca Paints(Disclosure: They have business with the company), which is a niche PU based B2B paints trader(it imports and resells), which is now pivoting to a manufacturing operation and eventual branded play. Many having analyzed the stock, discussions led around entry barriers, competition from Pidilite/Asian Paints, affordability, realism of Nepal/Sri Lanka plans, GST excuse for receivables decline, and the need for volume data to make inferences on pricing power etc.
@mythace discussed the investment thesis of GMDC, a lignite manufacturer who is seeing good times due to the coal prices hike. Interesting points like renewable energy play, reserves replacement limit to valuation, customer coal allocation due to PSU policy, market response despite operational improvements etc was discussed.
@paresh.sarjani1 discussed Shiv Keshav Cements. Key questions emerged around the ability of such a small company to fund 20MW solar plant along with the other capex, as also whether a small commodity player could survive and scaleup. Other themes were also on interest expense numbers(why lower)

I have also attached a PPT ‘Ground Rules’ to help first time prospective attendees better understand. Do ping me 1:1 if any queries. As always, the PPTs are shared subject to the usual disclaimer that any investment activity is at your own risk.
Investment Lessons.pdf (320.1 KB)
Investment Gone Wrong - Kitex Garments (1).pdf (2.7 MB)

Ground Rules.pdf (424.3 KB)
CDSL.pdf (680.0 KB)
Sirca Paints Presentation.pptx (491.6 KB)
SKCIL (1).pptx (682.0 KB)
GMDC VP SEP 2018_FV.pdf (1.8 MB)


(Anandh) #301

Also, adding in new post due to the 10 user limit/post, an actively participating audience is the key, and besides @Yogesh_s and @amey153 who actively grilled the presentors like always, @Chinmayk @vinodh @Mayur_Jain @jatinderagarwal @smart_harsh and @prakashh1 were a few whom chipped in with their insights and views. Thanks to all


(dharma) #302

I especially went to Mumbai from Surat to attend this meetup and I wasn’t disappointed at all. To hear such high quality presentations and discussions from experienced guys is goldmine for someone like me, who’s just starting up.

Thanks @andy161161 for organising and all the presenters and all that participated in this high quality debate. I hope to upgrade my investing/business acumen and contribute in some form in the future. Thanks all.