ValuePickr- Mumbai


(sarthak kumar) #242

Hello Amit,

Could you please upload your presentation.

Thanks


(Amit Jain) #244

Work in progress… By next meet will hv it completed…


(Anandh) #248

Next meetup on Jan 6, 2018(Saturday). Below link to register


Update: We are now closed to FCFS registrations. Base price will be discounted to original price for those with the invite code(past presentors, top contributors etc). This higher base of 1K is just to discourage regular registrations now. Those who wish to be considered for further registrations please fill this sheet with examples observed by you and email meBull Mkt Frauds.xlsx (12.6 KB)


(Anandh) #256

Hi All,
The Jan-18 monthly meet happened at Vorq Business Space, Andheri(E). With a nearly 3mth hiatus between the last one and this one, there was quite a bit of active participation and turnout of 45+ people in a limited 50 seat hall. Thanks to all presentors for their presentations, and the brief meeting report is below. Please DO NOT ping asking to be added to the whatsapp group, we are about full now.

@dd1474 presented on insolvency framework and its implications for investors looking to benefit from these cigar butts. He contrasted the present approach with earlier frameworks that were promoter friendly.
@jatinderagarwal presented the updated data sheet on insurance companies, in his concise and entertaining manner. People were left seeking more, so maybe one next time
**Gurmeet Singh presented on JK Paper, and also why we should not lump all paper stocks together without diffrentiating the business.
@SinghiGirish presented on KCP, a cyclical stock on which he had just entered before its 25% run up. The discussion centred around the low declining ROCE, entire company for the price of just cement(capital (mis)allocation, cement olipogolies amid low utilisation.
Nitiin Khandkar(founder of Beyond Quant) presented on company analysis. While this was basic for our more experienced participants, I believe those with 0-4yrs exp got the maximum value
@maheshkmurthy leveraged his day job experience of industrial sales, and presented on Bhansali Engineering Polymers. While he managed to simplify the complex terminology of ABS, audience Q&A centred around whether its capacity plans were realistic, and the zero debt status lasting for long.
Tejesh Shah from Spark Capital led a discussion on why multibaggers may be overlooked with an example of Page Industries. Key points covered included franchisee renewal risk, promoter holding(or selling), labour risk, price point risk, single distribution for basic and premium, promoter hunger for growth, FCF generation trend, foreign competition, dividend policy etc. In a concise 10min, he presented his retrospect on a stock seen by him for a decade

Presentations used at site(Excluding Tejesh)
BEPL Investment Rationale.pptx (46.1 KB)
KCP.pptx (45.3 KB)
VP Mumbai Insolvancy and Bankruptcy code January 2018 (2).pptx (146.9 KB)
Insurance - Jan 2018.xlsx (88.8 KB)
Company Analysis (Nitiin A. Khandkar - BQiT).pdf (2.4 MB)
Jan2018_JK Paper_vFF.pdf (1021.8 KB)


IBC referred Cases: Value investing or Value trap?
(Anandh) #257

**Meetup Attendance

Please note, we are limited by venue size(Its difficult to find something that does not cost more than 100-200/head for 4-5hrs on weekends excluding basic snacks assuming 80% capacity), Hence, we limit to 50.

If you know of any venue in Chembur/Powai/Andheri/BKC meeting above criteria and seating>=65/70 people, we can consider expanding the invite list. Also, until there is quality content, we cannot confirm a definite meeting date.

Whenever meetings are planned however, following priority
-Present Organizers + people presenting at this time
-People presenting at last 2 meetups(or willing to do in next meetup)
-People sharing knowledge actively on valuepickr or publicly via blog
-Frequent attendees and active participants of earlier meetups
-First Time attendees/FCFS basis(ideally not more than 10, that too if seats remain)
-Discretionary attendance-For the last 25% seats, this will be filled considering above principles. Email me for the invite link. Normal registration will remain closed.

To maximize your chance of attendance/being invited, please
Signup at https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/valueinvestormumbai to be informed
-Share your knowledge publicly or present in your area of expertise
-Respond to survey requests like that of checklist
-AVOID spamming this thread with your mobile numbers/contact details :slight_smile:
-Help yourself and others be included by helping us find a bigger venue available for 4-5hrs

Also, some further points
-Single Registration ONLY-please do not register for/bring your friend/spouse etc unless they have also received this email invite or are valuepickr members. This is a relatively advanced forum.
-All these meetups are charged (except sometimes for presentors). No first time free
-Time is fixed 2pm-6pm but place may vary-please see invite for more details
-Presentors do not receive any remuneration for this
-Any surplus defrays loss if any on subsequent meetups. Usually, ±1k


(SkyWalker) #258

Thanks @andy161161 for arranging this meetup. This was my second meetup and was certainly helpful. I, particularly found @dd1474 Insolvency Framework useful. It was concise and to the point, kind of refresher course.

Appreciate the efforts of all participants to make this a lively meetup.


(Rakesh Kumar Gampa) #263

Can you please add me in the group- Rakesh kumar Gampa


(Manish Vachhani) #264

Please do not share your phone no and/or email id on this public forum as it can be misused. One can directly send messages to the group admin or group member for request. All the city group forum threads would be closed. All those who have put their nos on these threads are requested to remove them for their own safety.Until the whole thread is cleaned up, it will remain locked. So please do not request moderators to open the thread, instead please ask your group members to do all the clean up work individually.


(Manish Vachhani) #265

(Manish Vachhani) #266

(Manish Vachhani) #267

I have opened up the thread. Group leader please ensure that no one shares their contact nos/email ids on the thread.


(S K Goldar) #268

I am S K Goldar from Navi Mumbai. I am regular reader of all the Business News Paper (ET, Business Std, Mint etc) as well as various Business Magazine. Used to keep watch on Economy & regular viewer of Business Channel. I am investing since 2000 & have seen many ups & down of markets. Would like to join Group to share my Knowledge & thought about the Market as well as to get benefited for the new ideas from the Group Members. If possible, you may consider my nomination for the Mumbai Group.

Thanks & Regards
S K Goldar


(csteja) #270

When can be the next meetup. Where should i add by contact details?


(Anandh) #271

The meetup on 4 Feb 2018 at Somaiya Polytechnic saw a turnout of ~20 people since this was largely restricted to those who had made the effort to share a writeup/idea at this or last 2 meetups. The usual disclaimers hold, this is PURELY for your own understanding and not a specific buy/sell recomendation. Also, the commentary below is not necessarily the presentors’s-this is often a capsule of the audience Q&A and my observations
.
@bkasal presented a case for the beaten down value pick Noida Toll bridge, which trades at an Mcap of ~230crs(or EV of 280crs including debt). While revenues are NIL due to the injunction on toll collection, if they win at the Supreme Court, it could see a 6x return for shareholders. A binary event and special situation
@Mayur_Jain discussed the thesis on Unichem buyback wherein we seem getting the business for approx the cash and 1EV international business. Interestingly play.
Utsav Gogiwar of Investec briefly discussed their report on Shriram City Union Finance which was beaten down due to the transition of NPA provisioning from 180DPD to 90DPD and the IDFC merger failure. However, at P/BV ~2.2FY19BV, it seemed priced in and upside chance
Vinod Hassija presented on the Adani Enterprises demerger story. However, the overall company valuation is complex owing to many moving parts, and since the Adani Gas valuation appears less than 50% of the holding company, this is a risky play. Perhaps the spinoff story could be easier to play for re-rating.
@Yogesh_s presented on SME stocks namely CSL Finance, Valiant Organics and SRG Housing finance.The discussion revolved around sources of business moat(in case of CSL), ability to grow exponentially on small base(for CSL and SRG), why HFCs should command P/AUM>1 and the parentage(eg Aarti Group) reason for commanding premium valuations.
@anshuljain791 presented on Sanghvi movers, which is a play on the potential turnaround of their end user segment wind energy. The discussion revolved around whether a pureplay rental business should command more than book value, in a weak demand environment.
@andy161161 presented on how investors could interpret GST better, and react to certain events
@Samar presented on Everest Kanto and its potential turnaround. Even though its run up, could still inch up if they focus purely on Indian operations and the CGD(City Gas Distribution) play
@paresh.sarjani1 presented on NGL Finechem, which has seen a steep correction in the past 2 months. The key event here appears whether the market will wait for the capacity utilisation to come up, or this will be a delayed capex story.

Please join the group to be notified of future meetups. https://groups.google.com/forum/#!pendingmember/valueinvestormumbai/apply However, to be guaranteed a seat, please message me on Valuepickr with an investment idea writeup(1 pg)
Adani Enterprise - A value unlocking opportunity.pptx (82.7 KB)
Investment Ideas Feb 2018.ppt (32.5 KB)
Everest Kanto .pptx (73.3 KB)
GST For Investors.pptx (190.2 KB)
NGL Finechem (1).pptx (457.6 KB)
Unichem, Sanghvi.xlsx (55.4 KB)
Sanghvi Movers.pdf (573.0 KB)
Investment Opportunity - Balaji Kasal @ ValuePickr - 04 Feb 2018.pptx (2.5 MB)


(Mayur Jain) #272

Unichem buyback update — Record Date has been fixed as February 16, 2018. The board meeting was held on Feb 5.

Fairly unusual development, considering that the final date for postal ballot voting for buyback approval is 9th Feb, and the final results of which haven’t been declared.

I’m “guessing” the promoters are in a hurry to wrap this buyback up before March 31, so that they can return more money via another buyback in the next financial year.


(sarthak kumar) #273

Hello Amit,

Don’t want to rush you but just wanted to check if the presentation is complete.

Thanks


(Amit Jain) #274

Lolz. Nice punt.

Have been contributing to the Nifty PE thread, in a somewhat unwelcome manner. On an ongoing basis, I have expressed most of the material there. Except for the last bit, where I intend to trail a little away from the label of Nifty 50, but not the idea.

The initial presentation I had made kinda appears obsolete now.


(Sahiriar) #275

hi I have never made an investor presentation. but I am looking forward to write one. I am unable to message you here. Please send me your email ID so I can send it to you.


(Rahul B) #276

@Mayur_Jain

Thanks for sharing the Excel presentation regarding unichem buyback.
Can you please help me in understanding the below questions

  1. What will be the acceptance ratio for small shareholders. Since they didn’t shared the small shareholders information in annual report I can’t find it.
  2. Since they sold the business to other company, once the buyback is completed, the share price might become lower right.
    What are your thoughts on it.

(Mayur Jain) #277

Q1- You’re right. Can’t know what the acceptance ratio will be. We know that ~20% of the shares are held by investors holding <50,000 shares. Retail category will be fixed around 500-550 shares. So, retail entitlement ratio should be much >20%. As a comparison, Infosys’ entitlement was 29% with final acceptance rising to 52%. Considering Unichem is unknown vs well advertised Infy, I “think” the acceptance should be >60%. Note, that this is just an estimate.

Q2 - As of today (12/2/18), 85% of the company’s mkt. cap. is held in cash. Theoretically, share price reduction is expected, but in this case, tangible cash provides a meaningful floor to the price. There are other meaningful tangible assets that we get for the remaining 15% m.cap.

  • 3 Formulations plants inspected by FDA in FY16: Goa (recently expanded), Baddi & Ghaziabad
  • 3 API plants in Roha, Kolhapur (new plant) & Pithampur (recently expanded)
  • 1 R&D centre at Goa
  • 1 Corporate office in Mumbai

International operations are loss making and will be a long term (>3 yrs) turnaround story that one may track, after the return of cash to shareholders gets completed. Promoter’s had stated a return of >50% cash (after tax) and this buyback represents ~30% of that kitty. So. there could be another corporate action for 20-30% more cash, after this buyback is completed (special dividend/buyback).