Due to the Nifty touching 11k and/or western suburbs location, we had a turnout of ~40 at the Goregaon meetup yesterday. The time of 4hrs overshot to 5hrs but still an enthusiastic audience. As always, the below are individual opinions, not of their employers and do not constitute investment advice, and not for public quote/media without express prior writen consent of the authors.
@Ajit.ku.agrawal presented on the MFI Armaan Financial as a candidate which had survived 2010 AP crisis and Demon, but others pointed out that any remaining MFIs likley had the same. The discussion centred around Bandhan and lastly, Satin, with the open point being whether the 3x P/B of Armaan was justified vs 1.1x of Satin.
@amey153 explained about how cyclical industries make profits, expand and then regress. Sterlite Tech was one such example, which yet may turnaround(my view, not his) due to the proposed anti dumping duty
Harsh Gupta presented on Mastek being an inexpensivep(p/b 1.1) cloud play but that thesis was fiercely challenged about how a mid level IT player(just having reached 1000cr revenue, mostly T&M basis) could achieve non linear growth.
@Amit_Agarwal presented on Mumbai based realtor Sumit Woods, recently listed on the main board. This company is land bank less and a JDA player with revenue shares till 50%, but is now scaling up on project count and on scope. The discussion centred around low interest rates, credit rating and business potential. As someone holding 2% in the company, it is a conviction bet for him, and he spoke confidently about it
@kashish24 presented on Greenpanel, a spinoff story from Greenply, which has been punished due to debt, real estate etc. Despite the high import vs domestic price variance and risk of dumping/import competition, he was confident that the bottom has come, and retail price comparisons bear this out. This is a secular play on Ikea and the prefab furniture trend, if it survives that long.
Nirav Shah presented in GAEL(GujaratAmbuja). A good example of a profitable and growing division(maize starch) commanding premium but overshadowed by other divisions. As the lowest cost producer, it has a chance but the point came about assigning a higher P/E than 10 to such a small company.
Uday Shanbaug presented on Himatsingka Seide, a textile exporter under its own brand. Discussion centred around TUFS debt, export growth, capacities etc
@Shivanms presented on TCI Express, and how it could have a moat in an industry with wafer thin margins. Uday weighted in with his experience of how brand could help LCL carriers get higher capacity even with the same freight. Here, style drift is a risk with capex of 400crores proposed (even with internal accruals) vs earlier asset light model. Other discussions focussed on why Ecom is less atttractive(In-house etc)
@andy161161 presented on how to consider companies for shorting, and some recent examples of it. The very PPT focussed on framework and how it could add alpha. I will contribute more examples on other threads on VP like the Corporate Fraud/Misdemeanor - Public Domain - India lessons - #40 by pahariayogi
Thanks to the audience for actively adding value including @dhruv Ganga Charan @Mayur_Jain Harsh Agarwal. It is useful to have industry professionals in the room when we discuss stocks, and this was evident today.
Arman_Investment_Case_Ajit.pdf (549.5 KB) GAEL-Nirav Shah.pptx (211.6 KB) Greenpanel .pptx (204.7 KB) Himatsingka.pptx (122.6 KB) Mastek VP Presentation 30.11.19.pptx (3.4 MB) Mumbai Meet - 30th Nov-19.pptx (1.1 MB) sumit note 15.11.19.pdf (73.2 KB) TCI Express.pptx (172.5 KB) Short Selling_30Nov2019-FOR UPLOAD.pptx (184.4 KB)