Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

Esab India, Monthly - Has been consolidating for a year in this wedge while numbers have improved consistently. Current quarter numbers are an all time high and should hopefully lead to a breakout from this consolidation.

Esab India is into welding consumables (welding rods or stick electrodes), welding equipment and cutting products. Seems to be a picks and shovels approach for capex play. They supply to Shipbuilding, construction, transport, energy and also in repair and maintenance of steels mills, cement, sugar etc. So this is probably the safest way to play the capex. The company has a very good return ratios with RoCE around 45% and RoE around 33%.

The company came up with some very good numbers over the weekend - 25% topline growth and about 33% bottomline growth YoY. Margins were at an all time high as well owing to operating leverage playing out. Unsure of what the capacity utilisation currently is but if these sort of margins continue, there could be disproportionate growth ahead.

Permanent Magnets, Daily - Broken out from pre-result prices with a gap up, most of which it filled intraday. Might re-test the trendline at around 630 levels

Numbers have been quite good here again with a 45% topline growth and a 65% bottomline growth with good margin expansion. More details on the business are present in AR and investor presentations and the AGM recording.

Disc: Have a position in Esab India from around current levels. Permanent Magnets from 550 levels and added a bit more today. A re-test could be good levels to add more.


QoQ growth continues for Arman, as Quarterly Pat crosses 19+ crores and Interest income has also grown.

Stock close to 52 Week highs

Disclaimer: invested since 700s. Mfi cycle, lets see signs of picking up pace with funds raised hitting Bs next Q. Run rate should accelerate


Techno Electric, Monthly - 1.5 years of downtrend under that trendline along with the business which has gone through Covid, commodity prices and execution problems, being predominantly a EPC player. Currently though all of them are easing and orderbook is at an all time high 3200 Cr and the management thinks it will end FY23 with an orderbook of 4000 Cr in the Q2 concall.

Execution in H1 has been tepid though the management has guided for 1200 Cr topline (conservatively, as per management) for the year, which means H2 will see about 800 Cr topline (Q3 to be better than last 2 quarters and Q4 will have bulk of it). The EPC margins guided are 12% (again, conservative) but if commodity prices ease, can be higher (Recession in Europe management says could be a positive for them). Considering H2 FY22 EBITDA of 82 Cr, the EPC EBITDA alone could be 96 Cr (12% of 800 Cr). On top of this, the Power segment could contribute about 25 Cr so H2 EBITDA growth could be ~50% if my guesstimates are right.

Those near-term positives should help the breakout.

On a long-term perspective, the valuation for the business is at ~9x EV/EBITDA. There is about 1200 Cr cash on the books and there’s a buyback going on for 160 Cr (~50 Cr buyback completed I think) which should lend support to the price. The management has guided for giving out 500 Cr as dividend as well. FY24 and FY25 topline could be in the order of 1750-2000 Cr as per latest guidance since the orderbook is timebound and has to be executed in the next 2 years.

The data center business is a nice optionality in the valuation and could positively surprise from next year. They have guided for revenue contribution from July onward next year. I don’t quite understand how this works but it looks like it could be a 250 MW data center and Techno Electric could get 10 Cr per MW. I am yet to study this bit and what term sheet they are getting into and so on since I haven’t considered this in the valuation but this could be a positve long-term surprise.

The chart and valuation and business prospects says there isn’t much to lose from here. Technically a monthly close above 320 will confirm a strong breakout which should happen in the next 2-3 months. This can be a very illiquid stock on some days and quite liquid on others - so staggering buys could be a better approach.

Disc: I have some positions around 290, initiated today. Not SEBI registed and I am a novice, please research and use your own judgement. This is my written thesis for clarity for the trade and nothing more.


They are selling one third of their power assets. Does this change anything in your estimates?

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Nice write up @phreakv6

The 250MW target it till 2030. In the first phase it will be 30MW at Chennai. They will look at other locations like Kolkata for the next one. The cost is around 45Cr/MW. They are actively looking for a partner for this business and in discussion with quite a few. They want to use their wind assets to power this data center so that it can be categorized as green and the tenants who have ESG commitments come to them.
They will have a revenue potential of 10Cr/MW (-power cost).
Ref: Conf call
Disc: Invested recently


GE shipping ,Monthly :- It broke it’s lifetime high of 625 today that it made during 2008,I am not much of technical guy but fundamental wise the stock is bound to break it’s lifetime high due tanker rates being super high due to ongoing russia-ukraine war.This quarter they posted the highest net-profit ever in the history of the company and management in this con-call has guided for an even higher net profit due to Europe subsituting it’s energy needs from USA and other countries instead of Russia and demand for these commodities is higher in winters leading to more demand for ships and shios have to travel extra miles.Even if russia and ukraine war was to stop tomorrow ,it will take time to heal wounds and for Europe to start buying gas and oil from Russia again so these tanker rates might not fall in the near future.This is the only listed shipping company apart from shipping corporation of India which is a Psu,Shipping business is all about cyclicality might not be worth investing in Sci as it works for the nation then the shareholders.

Historically the company has traded between 50 to 110% of it’s book value currently at 65% and with all the tailwinds(high dollar rate, high scraping price for ships, company becoming net debt free, new shipping scrapage policy reducing supply of ships in the shipping sector this might do very well.

Counter arguments :- a global recession could trigger a low demand for commodities leading to what happened in shipping stocks 15 years back during the 2008 financial crisis. but the company is ready with cash this time in balance sheet to add to it’s ageing fleet this time.

Disc :invested from 280 levels will add more if the tankers rates keep going higher and price stays rangebound.


Pricol, Monthly - 4 year bottom formation and a lot of dilly-dallying around for 6+ months this year and then getting a move on. A breakout like this generally doesn’t happen unless there’s strong fundamental shifts and a price struggle for 6 months post breakout also implies the confusion for sustenance and the belief is perhaps in the price its trading it last 3 months. This pullback that’s currently on could be a good entry for the long-term.

Why Pricol? The recent (this year) partnerships show the company is ambitious and hungry. Three very good partnerships - with Sibros in the driver info systems and telematics space (DIS will show everything from speedo, odo, temp, battery etc., along with ability monitor where the vehicle is remotely and also do OTA updates just like most smart devices.)

Another partnership with BMS Powersafe that gets them into the BMS space. I like how Vikram Moham the MD explains about BMS - as the equivalent of an engine for a EV (although I see it more as a ECM - Engine Control Module, which is the brain of an ICE vehicle, controlling the fuel injection, spark plugs and the firing). This gets them future ready into crucial EV components

The partnership with Candera will help them design good UX in their DIS. As the layout, the nature of colors, the design of menus etc. will matter a lot in their digital TFT screen based touch-screen interfaces, as compared to the traditional analog instrument clusters.

The products they make currently

Good clientele

Recent product launches

It looks like the sort of interfaces we are used to in cars, are making their way to 2W space now.

They also make instrument clusters for CVs, tractors

They also make some crucial components like Fuel pump, water pump for ICE vehicles and count CAT, Ducati, BMW, Volvo etc. among their clients in the export market

There seems to be some sort of transformation happening the business and having seen this business making auto meters and boring analog instrument clusters, its nice to see them reinvent and get ready for the future.

There is a lot of info in the concalls Q4, Q1 and Q2 and investor presentations Q4, Q1 and Q2 and the AR

The earnings have started to show up in the recent quarters but I believe the future may have a lot more to offer.

The balance sheet is lot stronger of late after they have taken some hard decisions to sell of some of their subsidiaries to re-align themselves.

The valuation at 10x EV/EBITDA isn’t very expensive for a company displaying the hunger to grow in a country with a lot of opportunities to do so. There are margin risks though in the business since a lot of the electronic components like the TFT screens are imported from China which exposes them to forex risks. There’s also risk of obsoletion of some of their products in the ICE catalog and the analog instrument clusters. However the business is perhaps in a better place today to overcome those than anytime in its history.

Disc: Have positions around 175.


South Indian Bank- weekly chart

Crossed the nearest resistance with very high volumes, indicating entry of institutions. Volumes in recent months have been life time high.

Price is the indicator and volumes are the weight of the evidence.

Relative strength vs the Bank nifty indicates out performance.

Coming to Fundamentals:-

  1. New book vs Old book mix. After the new MD joined in 2020, there has been a conscious focus on asset quality. Also sector level, credit risk has bottomed out after years of credit quality issues.

Here is the background of the new md & my industry checks indicate he is someone stringently focused on asset quality.

  1. Asset quality of the new book vs the old book. New book has higher Net interest margins and higher share of corporates that are A+ rated vs the legacy book.

NNPA of the new book is 0.01% vs 2.41%+ for the old book.

  1. Improving NIMs:

-Firstly, rate transmission to depositors has been slower. This has been true for the entire banking space, and will start normalising.

-Second part, which is much more structural. The new book that is built (33k crores) has higher yields, better NIMs, better quality. As the older book keeps getting churned, the newer books profitability will reflect. And overall NIMs should start looking sustainable.
Nims in newer book is 3.6%.

  1. Valuation:- Book value per share is already at Rs. 30. Key monitor able is net slippages in Q3FY23 result. If net slippages come in net negative, then all street estimates will get revised. Beats in expectations basically.

Disc: invested since Rs11.One of the top 5 allocations in the PF at the moment. Risks are huge too.


Just seems Bulls have started winning the battle with High Volumes…

H2 growth can be higher as full year guidance is 25%+ AUM growth and First half was 19%. Implies AUM growth backended in H2 of this year.

Disc: same as before. Invested. Not a reco to buy or sell


Punjab Chemicals and Crop Protection log chart from 2008.
I won’t write about fundamentals as it’s well covered on VP especially by @harsh.beria93 and @sensaptarishi
But in short over long term it looks like topline expansion, margin expansion and rerating candidate.
Looks like in May’2021 stock broke out of a triangle pattern and retraced after making a high in Aug’2021. Retraced exactly at the trendline connecting the tops from 2008.
Has been consolidating in a small range since then.
Looks like a potential Flag pattern formation too and breakout above the flag channel may result in a trend change.
Current range maybe good levels to accumulate followed by additions on break out.
@hitesh2710 Would you please share your views on this chart.

Discl: Invested.


Varun Beverages, Weekly - Nice C&H breakout, and a ATH with serious volumes. Not sure what has caused the sort of volumes we have seen last week. There was a MSCI rebalancing and VBL was being exited but this is something else - the volumes were even higher than the listing week! Current quarter is seasonally weak though but this is one of those we can sit tight on, as long as TAM expands, and there is strong volume growth and market share gains continue.

Techno Electric, Monthly - This is perhaps playing out with a breakout on the monthly. It is currently trading at 52 week highs and levels last seen in July of last year. ATH is around 360 levels. The fundamental thesis is here. The buyback is authorized until 325 odd levels which should offer very strong support to absorb convictionless equity. There is still 79 odd Crores left which is more than sufficient cash for the buyback. By Q4, if the execution is on track, ATH should be made hopefully.

Esab, Monthly - The one year odd consolidation from here has broken out on the upside. Fundamentally, this is the biggest player and market leader in the welding consumables, welding equipment and cutting products, including automated cutting tools. I learnt more about this business from their youtube videos since there isn’t much by way of presentations or concalls. Again probably the safest way to play the capex theme. The second rung player Ador welding is also perhaps a good bet but the chart here is great, along with the earnings (Ador hasn’t shown similar growth at least as of last quarter)

Permanent Magnets, Monthly - This is a long-term breakout on the monthly. This is where there’s belief that the business might be coming out of its natural rate of growth into something else spectacular. Unsure if its all speculative or if there is perhaps good growth prospects in the next few years. Started a thread on this business with my speculative thoughts. Technicals don’t matter much here as one large seller or buyer can make or break the charts. Have to observe how it plays out fundamentally.

Vimta, Monthly - Breakout on the monthly here again as it closed at its highest ATH monthly close. However here again there’s a trendline resistence corresponding to the business’s natural rate of growth. If the NFL lab plays out as I think it can play out there’s a good possibility we can have a breakout from that 8 year trendline as well by Q4 (500 levels). Here again its very speculative and more fundamental bet than technical until the numbers show up.

Disc: Have positions in all as disclosed earlier in this thread. Writing helps clarify my thoughts and is not advice.



With reverse merger of the holding co. coming up, won’t thr be some selling once the Bank allots shares to holdco shareholders and arbitraguers sell out??

Once you buy based on technical charts, how do you adjust the strategy in face of corp actions like these which come up?? I mean, for a LT buyer, wouldnt it make sense to wait and acquire the shares when avlbl at lower price due to forced selling

Disclosure :- Total novice in technicals. Hold Equitas Holdco from lower levels as pure arb bet.

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Bet is longer term as the Bank might hit 2% Roa on a Quarterly basis

Moreover, the Book value per share will go up as Equitas Hold co has 300 crores of cash. Upon merger, BV gets bumped up by 20%. Outstanding shares will also get cancelled in Sfb. Thereby, bumping up BVPS.

2% Roa, and 1.1x Pb FY24E. Metrics are up there, yet multiple is cheap due to uncertainty around the MD retiring and behaviour of restructured book, which has behaved well. This is why the opportunity exists…

Disc: playing sfb via hold co. Valuation comfort is there and finally the catalyst has entered into play i.e Liquidity…


Honda India Power Products - Good breakout on the monthly chart across 6 years and an ATH. Breakouts like this don’t happen unless there’s a substantial business shift in the business. Unfortunately the company doesn’t do concalls or presentations, so the disclosures and ARs are what we have.

The business sells portable gensets, water pumps, general purpose engines, lawn mowers, brush cutters and tillers. Very recently they have also forayed into marine outboard motors (OBM).

There is substantial difference in the way the business is run from 2019 to now. Few that I noticed

  1. Termination of JV with Usha International as of Apr 1, 2020 and appointment of Mr. Takahiro Ueda at the helm as President & CEO of Honda India Power Products (HIPP)

  2. The above probably shows some change in direction from Honda Motor Co., Japan which is the holding company of HIPP. The way the business is structured and run has undergone a change where the company is getting lot more Export business, expanding its efforts towards localisation of components, introduction of new products, expansion of offline distribution and also building a digital and e-commerce presence (the new website was launched in July) etc.

  3. Exports business is one which has substantially changed. Here’s a quick table I made that captures the forex earned and outgo. (FY23 upto H1)

There’s a substantial increase in exports since FY20 (manufacturing shifting from Thailand as per FY20 AR)
FY 20 AR - Export business

and every year there’s an expansion of approved amount for exports (All exports are to related parties of Honda Motor Co. in Amerca, Canada, Europe, Australia etc.). Exports to US currently I think are mainly driven by the General Purpose Motors and the 7kVA gensets. Exports growing at a 25-30% CAGR since Mr. Ueda took over.

  1. Important thing to notice is that the RPT for purchases from other Honda Motor Co. subsidiaries also is going up. However, there’s a great trajectory of improving value addition within our borders due to localisation (percentage of outgo is reducing). Outgo will never go to 0, since royalty (6%) and export commissions (8%) will be non-zero. This localisation effort has added 200 Cr net forex in H1 which is 85% of net from last year. My guess is that this could be helping in improving gross margins in the recent quarter where EBITDA margins were at a never before seen 14%.

  2. The approval for royalty and commissions in approved RPT as of Nov, indicates topline around 1500 Cr based on approved royalty and commissions (In the past years they have achieved close to this number and in exports even overshot and took a revised approval in AGM for FY22. Approval was for 520 Cr but they did 570 Cr if am not mistaken)

  3. I am unsure of market size of export opportunity but I think there’s a lot of cost arbitration to manufacture in India. The EU7000iS is the model we must be exporting to US and its sold there as EU70iS. The price differential is almost 2x. I believe the noise and emission norms there are different so there is perhaps more components that go into the US version but still there is probably a good cost arbitration in manufacturing here. Same is the case with the general purpose motors as well.

  4. Its a strong domestic agri (water pumps, tillers, brush cutters) play as well. The marine business is currently dominated by Yamaha and Suzuki engines. The company wants to capture 15% market share in OBD market with their pollution and noise-free line-up of fuel-efficient 4-stroke engines. This could be a play on our rudimentary fisheries, coastguard and recreational boating market. They seem to have sales and service tie-up with Esmario marine to break into this market (YouTube launch video has some info on this)

So if they do manage a topline of 1500 Cr, I believe they could do an EBITDA of ~180 Cr and a PAT of ~120 Cr which could imply its trading at ~22x. Again these estimates could be off but if right, the upside could be substantial. (Also there’s cash of 426 Cr on the books)


  1. Royalty and export commissions has stayed at 6% and 8% respectively for sometime. Any increase in this could be hard for HIPP

  2. In Q1, some of the company’s exports were found to be not matching declared spec for emission norms. While it does sound big, the exports to US and Canada which are the major destinations (322 Cr of 350 Cr in H1) are unaffected and its only a matter of revising the spec since its still within environmental limits there and the company has already done that and is continuing exports. They seem to be working on the issue so they can restart exports to UK, EU and Aus. (Actual exports in H1 is only ~1.25 Cr to these countries, so they have proactively stopped)

  1. RPTs and unlisted subsidiaries are a big problem with MNCs like this. Here too a lot of business is driven by RPTs but the company’s disclosures are stellar on the RPTs which is most of the info in this post has come from. However globally Honda Power Packs (swappable batteries for bikes, ricks) seems to be under Power Products division but in India its a separate subsidiary directly under the Holding Co. While they aren’t into a directly competing business line, merging this business under HIPP will make HIPP a much more valuable company perhaps

  2. This company was trading at 1800 or less until last month. Now its almost 40% above that price. The price could go sideways or downwards towards 2200-2400 range which could be a worst case 15% drawdown from current levels. The upside though could be significant if the company executes well and the market sees this as a bit more than a dying gensets business as its perhaps currently viewed.

Disc: Have positions around current levels. I am not SEBI registered and could be very wrong with this thesis. Please do your own research.


Few additional details on opportunity size.

Looks like Power Products world wide is at 6.2 million units/annum across products (As per Honda Global AR). Indian capacity is at 350k units/year whereas Thai unit is at 2.7 million units/year. That’s almost 8x difference in capacities though both Thai and Indian operation for Honda Power Products started in the mid 80s. Thailand has manufactured 45 million units while we have done only 5 million cumulatively.

Thailand exports 93% of its capacity. So their capacity is completely exports focused and since its 43% of worldwide demand, very likely this derisking of supply chain could go on for sometime and Indian exports could keep rising in the near future.


Nifty Weekly - While market reacted like end of the world was near, as if this is Mar '20 all over again, the long term charts suggests nothing abnormal. This is a routine pullback as we have seen several times before. Currently at 20 WMA support, and also re-testing previous tops made in Apr, Aug and Sept and very oversold on the hourly charts, making a bounceback likely next week.

What was peculiar also was the lack of liquidity. This is not the first time either since same thing happened between 13-20th December last year when Nifty fell from 17639 to 16410 (~7% fall). However market recouped all losses and liquidity was back post Christmas starting the strong pre-budget rally.

Considering we are at strong support levels and oversold, it is likely that a bounceback is probably around the corner. Most of this noise will not even be visible in monthly/quarterly charts and they are better guide to someone with slightly longer horizon. Even the midcap/smallcap charts that have broken 20/50 DMAs can look very different when viewed on monthly charts.

Last couple of months have been mental in terms of runup. There was a new sector in fancy every single week - PSU, railways, fertilizers, sugar etc. I think faith in this sort of random runups will be low which augurs well for overall market health. When money making looks very easy, it seizes to be. This time I expect the market to be a bit more discerning and show some respect to earnings, fundamental strengths and most importantly valuations (interest rates are up and expected to stay up, so we must be cognisant of the valuations a lot more for fresh buys).

The above is the reality of Covid cases in India and yet the only stocks in the green or flat today were pharma, healthcare, oxygen cylinders (seriously?), diagnostics making it look like Covid is well and truly back. What caused Mar '20 crash was uncertainty around a new beast. This isn’t a new beast anymore and lightning doesn’t strike the same tree twice. We have learnt enough lessons and I doubt if there are going to be crippling lockdowns and so on.

Disc: I am personally staying put. My portfolio made an ATH on tuesday and is down 8% from top (5% down just today). I expect more volatility ahead both ways but see no reason to sell out of fundamentally strong positions yet.


Sir, very timely and correct depiction of the ongoing trend. As mentioned, market was trying to catch up a new fancy for each week. These fancies may also provided the necessary drawdown in way of preserving the capital or some profit booking as these fancies were not on a fundamental basis. The very idea of overreaction seems plausible.:pray:

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Love reading your inputs and observations.
Markets are humiliating at best and that’s why I like to call it the “TGH”. S&P 500 also hasn’t seen many two back to back years of correction. I think markets are adjusting to high inflation and interest rate scenario where in it becomes difficult/less viable for companies to raise as well as service debt. This also means additional interest cost and double whammy of inflation eating into margins/profit. I have observed in the past that cyclical companies with avg debt tend to underperform during such cycles and niche midcaps/smallcaps showing high growth ( raising capital via equity dilution) doing well.
Also 2023 becomes interesting as election years are mildly positive and hence to me chances of a new high looks probable in 2023.
Biased and will add on dips


SUVENPHAR, 1D, Rs 496 [Daily Chart]

Chart Pattern - Cup and Handle
[ I assume, this thread is originally a chart pattern spotting and sharing here. And not spotting faults of Mr Market, what are market’s wrongdoing as we know what actually is right!]

Fundamentals: [i need to write, as posting chart without Fundamentals is not allowed]

  • Company is almost debt free.
    RoCE = 40%
  • Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 34.9%
  • Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 20.7%

The rebound played out nicely last week in pretty much everything. I think sometimes having a fundamental view can reduce macro and technical noise which a lot more participants herd around and participate (nothing wrong with it). Technicals based on daily charts change very fast but our mind is incapable of drastic shifts in view within a week (we are not George Soros). We must be careful not to form strong opinions or celebrate victories, for there are none in small timeframes.

The fall was nice to shop in some cheap names.

Dynemic Products, Weekly - The stock has been very well covered in its own thread. The company has perhaps bitten more than it can chew in its capex. I suspect pretty much everyone has thrown in the towel by now as the price is now at around pre-breakout level of 2020. The numbers are showing some improvement in the topline and the PnL is hit due to the massive depreciation. The margins are perhaps hit due to the poor utilisation and bad operating leverage that results from it. I think even the gross margins should improve from here without commodity price pressures. So there is a possiblity in my mind that a large GM, OPM improvement and a big multiple expansion is also possible from here whenever things go right. It could be a year or two but at current price, there is perhaps value around 250-300 levels

Honda Power, Weekly - So this did re-test 2200 levels as I thought it might. There is a gap in the daily charts around 1850-2000 levels as well which may or may not be tested. It still looks dicey but any re-test could be fantastic levels for a value investor. Fundamentals in the previous post in this thread.

There is a secular theme that’s underway in the power sector capex, especially in the grid spends. It doesn’t seem to be a theme that’s just domestic but its international as well, with US readying $13b to upgrade their power transmission infra and Europe doing the same and Ukraine at some point going to need a massive overhaul as well. EVs aren’t going to be able to use the existing power grid infra when the sales scale up. It will need a better transmission infra and also last-mile connectivity (US wants charging infra every 50kms). Renewable power generation also needs more power infra with substations and additional wiring in the wind turbines and solar panels. So this appears to be a multi-year theme as we move from dense fossil fuels to energy which is going to be synonymous with “power”.

There are multiple ways to play this theme, in conductors, transformers, transformer oils, T&D structures, cables.

Apar Industries, Weekly - When looking for players in this theme that were fundamentally strong, growing well domestically as well as international, with a strong chart, I came across this. Perfect upward channel since mid August.

Fundamentally, Rev up 55%, EBITDA 77%, PAT 89% YoY - Very strong growth in H1 and H2 should be equally strong as well as per guidance. Exports revenue - up 85% for Q2 and 65% for H1 (clearly exports driven growth and rate of change of growth is phenomenal). Export mix was 47% in Q2 vs 36% Q2 last year (Skipper as well has very good export growth). Exports of Cables (22% of sales) and Conductors (42% of sales) are growing at 206% and 97% - So bulk of the portfolio (64%) is experiencing significant volume-led growth. The investor presentation and the concall has a lot of details needed to understand the business. All products are listed on their site if you want to visualise.

Fundamental thesis for investment is inline - grid spends are driving numbers

Businesses moving away from China and COP26 driving demand (incidentally Techno Electric also talks about COP26 driving FGD demand in thermal plants. Same is confirmed in Hitachi Energy and GE Power concalls as well - and the fact that a player like Power Mech is bagging orders worth thousands of crores)

They have approvals from big 4 renewable players in Europe and this should contribute to sales going forward (70% market share in wind domestically)

This is how they participate in the renewables space

They hedge Copper and Aluminium prices at LME soon as they bag an order which is why they haven’t made a loss in 10+ years and have retained margins in the 6-8% range. In the Conductor and Cables business at least volatility is low. In the Oils business however there is some volatility across quarters (Q3 could be soft) but yearly its stable.

Please note that their RoCE isn’t as strong as reported since they pay interest on payable past 3 months - so interest should be seen just like you see power or employee expense for this business. RoE is a better indicator and thats around 14% - this is expected to go up to 18% in FY23.

Disc : Bought Dynemic around 290-300 and added to Honda power position around 2150-2200. Initiated positions in Apar around 1750 levels

2022 has been a very good year in the markets though I participated actively only in the second half. Hopefully '23 will be good too. Happy new year!


A further fundamental update here. I like posting in this thread, given it gives you flexibility to keep updating

The big overhang on the perception is gone:- MD to continue and ensures stability at the bank.

Let’s see what the seasonally strong H2 has in store for us.

Disc: invested and observing.

On the other one, South Indian Bank reported 18% Gross advances growth in a seasonally weak quarter for Corporate loans.

In context Federal reported 19% and Karnataka bank, barely 8%.

MD’s guidance for growth has been 10-15%. Have outperformed their own guidance.

Attention is fully focused on write backs if they happen and the slippages the bank reports going forward.

Disclosure: invested.