ValuePickr Public Portfolio


(Administrator) #1

To drive home the importance of proper capital allocation, we thought best to start from homeground! A first look at how our stock picks have done over the last year or so.

Please help analyse reasons for the hits & the misses. That will lead us all to becoming better Capital Allocators!! - Time for another thread:)

Informal ValuePickr Scorecard

Stock

Initiation

Reccomendation

Lowest level

Highest Level

CMP

Absolute

Annualised

Current View

Date

Price

Date

Price

since Recco

since Recco

2-Aug-11

Returns

Returns

1

Suprajit Engineering*

16-Mar-10

17.7

14-Jan-11

20.8

18.35

22.45

20.2

-2.88%

-

Hold; Buy on declines

2

Manjushree Technopack

17-Mar-10

44.25

12-May-10

43.55

41.75

107.75

73.85

69.58%

55.66%

Hold

3

Balkrishna Industries*

17-Mar-10

122.55

18-Aug-10

134.59

114.3

183

178.85

32.89%

32.89%

Hold; Add on declines

4

Vinati Organics

24-Jul-10

80.15

26-Aug-10

79

62

92

71.05

-10.06%

-

Exit

5

Mayur Uniquoters

18-Aug-10

237

10-Feb-11

240

232

442

391

62.92%

107.86%

Hold; Add on declines

6

Gujarat Reclaim

18-Aug-10

1001

26-Aug-10

1007.2

911.9

1278.95

1145.5

13.73%

13.73%

Hold; Add on declines

7

Balaji Amines*

20-Aug-10

40.39

5-Oct-10

45.2

37.1

52.6

38.85

-14.05%

-

Exit

8 Pondy Oxides 28-Aug-10 30.4 1-Sep-10 30.4 22.95 68.8 - 126.32% - Exit recommended Nov10

9

Riddhi Siddhi Gluco Biols

15-Nov-10

481.4

15-Nov-10

481.4

261.5

464.7

337.3

-29.93%

-

Exit recommended Jan 13

10

Ajanta Pharma

17-Jan-11

180.65

17-Jan-11

180.65

173

359.35

336.75

86.41%

129.62%

Hold; Add on declines

11

Astral Poly Technik

2-Mar-11

124.05

29-Mar-11

125

121

206.5

200.55

60.44%

145.06%

Hold; Add on declines

12 PI Industries 7-Mar-11 594 7-Mar-11 594 573 1118.15 1006.2 69.39% 166.55% Hold; Add on declines

*

Price adjusted for splits/bonus

Other Notes:

This is an informal scorecard, as Recco dates are approximate. The first instance when the Initiator has disclosed positions/intention to buy more has been taken as Recco date

Usual names figure in the Recco list - Ayush Mittal, Hitesh Patel, Mahesh Shah, Donald Francis. Many prolific stock pickers have since joined. Hope to see more names next time

More than a 100 individual stock threads exist at ValuePickr, only threads seeing maximum participation/digging work/research- Management Q&A/Stock story picked

This is a good record, Especially as the Market has gone nowhere! We have had more hits than misses. Some spectacular hits. One bad miss!

To improve on this performance, it needs a critical look! Its no excuse saying Review backdrop is against a difficult market situation.Our job is to beat the Markets at all times!


Welcome to ValuePickr Investing Forums
Separating Luck and Skill in Investing Performance?
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(Donald Francis) #2

First things first:

1). Credit goes out to the Stock Initiators/recommenders. Prolific contributors that must be mentioned here Ayush Mittal, Hitesh Patel, Mahesh Shah

2). Due credit must also be given to guys who take the discussion to the next level - people who regularly send in anlaysis, dig out reports, send in market feedback, meet suppliers/distributors, meet or arrange to meet Management - Prolific contributors here are Nagabrahma, TCX, Arindam, YSB, Abhishek, Siddharth, Kiran, Vinod MS, to name a few. These are top of mind…there are more guys putting their hands up by the day!

3). Have deliberately not included AVT Naturals - recommended on May 9,2011. That would have been another nice addition, but would have skewed the picture. Also, other than Mahesh the Initiator/recommender no one else contributed much to the discussion process:(. Perhaps as a practice we should only include something that has seen 2 quarters of performance post recco?

Now let’s get to the business of analysing the Hits and the Misses! Please alert if there are any other notable omissions from the list.


(Vinod MS) #3

Hi, great looking “report card”, sureto a get a few “stars” from the teacher :slight_smile:

ShouldHOV, Sreesakthi and ABC bearing be in the list? The first two could look good if we include dividendpayouts along with capital gains. Also wanted to know Hitesh’s opinion on these. ABC has come down to 118 today and HOV to 81.

Regards

Vinod


(Arindam) #4

I think this exercise should lead us to make our stock selections more carefully.

Like why did we “misread” Riddhi Siddhi situation. Even when we detected the early warning signs why couldn’t we call a full exit. And why is a Balaji Amines -an exit call today?

These things should become clearer to every member who cares to read up, and works on refining his investment strategies.


(TCX) #5

I would like to understand why Vinati Organics and Balaji Amines is a clear Exit now. What has changed in our understanding, or in the business itself??

Also we could have included Piramal Healthcare in the list. There was lot of passionate work in digging up material facts and the homework:)


(Donald Francis) #6

The reasons for recommending a complete exit from Balaji Amines and Vinati Organics are mainly poor visibility on PAT growth (infact degrowth is a distinct possibility), difficulty in understanding the business & inherent raw material linkages (completely dependent on story fed by company), and poor perception of the Sector.

These conclusions backed up by data of last 9 quarters, has been put up in their respective threads. Open to debate & further questioning, etc.


(Arindam) #7

Thanks Donald.

I would tend to agree with you one needs to be cautious in the case of both Vinati and Balaji Amines. The recent history of both the stocks has also not helped their cause - of standing out as Specialty Chemicals company - rather than commodity chemicals. Operating margins have been on a downtrend belying such hopes in the near term atleast.

When you recommend a complete exit, I assume you refer to the opportunity cost of having the money parked in something where there is more “hope” than visibility. And if you have some others where there is more “visibility” than hope, one should go with that - Is that where you are trying to steer the conversations to??

You didn’t mention the Riddhi Siddhi debacle. So I went back through the thread and saw that you did flag off the near certainty of the Corporate action (investment into subsidiary of a majority stake by Roquette) leaving only a shell company behind. You had argued in terms of probabilities and you were right. But the **huge implication **of that on the share price of the company - investors shunning a holding company structure with lots of cash - what use the cash will be put to being completely uncertain - was not so clear!

This was certainly an unexpected Corporate event taking us by surprise - not really since it took a lot of time for the announcement of structure to be made -twice board meets were postponed - we should be better prepared next time, this was a lesson well-learnt!


(Donald Francis) #8

Broadly summarising the learnings from above discussions: (while we wait for more inputs from other members)

The stocks that did very well - had few things going for them

1). Strong fundamentals 2. Solid growth visibility and track record 3. Big Opportunity size in front 4. Ability to scale up

The stocks that did not do well - despite reasonably strong fundamentals - had a few things holding them back

1). Poor growth visibility 2. Poor sector perception 3. High correlation of RM to Margins 4. Cyclicality overhang

Its important to note that the Winners while having the strengths mentioned,DID NOThave any of the weaknesses of the latter!

The stage gets set for me to start a proper discussion on Capital Allocation, in a separate thread. But please continue pouring in your thoughts in dissecting the ValuePickr scorecard of the last year, so we can keep refining!

Thx

Donald


(Hitesh Patel) #9

sureto

:))ShouldHOV,

dividendpayouts

hi vinod,

hov and sree sakthi both are dividend plays but looking at some recent announcement of hov I am not too comfortable with the management antics. They have all of a sudden decided to change accounting year to jan dec. Plus they are going to publish only standalone results every quarter and hence figures will look very poor. so even though dividend comes into the account like clockwork, one needs to be careful.

Sree Sakthi looks good both on div yield and on growth front.

ABC is suffering from lacklustre quarterly results. downside risk looks less here.

But in view of price correction and fundamental development in other stocks which I have updated in my top five picks, I would give all these a miss.


(Anil Raika) #10

I thread:))

Really this is a very worthwile website, i have became a big fan of your website. I want to know why have you asked for exiting in Pondy Oxides, what are the reasons for it


(Donald Francis) #11

Hi Anil,

Pondy Oxides was never a superior business. Look at its margins and returns over last few years and last few quarters and you will know.

The opportunity in Pondy Oxides at the time of entry was sheer undervaluation. At that point of time markets were on a high, there were very few mispriced bets available. We were ready for a 6-9 months haul to see something like a 50% upside. If you follow the Pondy Oxides thread that fortunately there was a Gravitas IPO, a peer being valued at 3x Pondy’s. The run-up happened too fast and we got 2.5x in 3 months or so! And ripe to exit.

Since then market has weakened. Now you have many wonderful opportunities. Why would you bother with a Pondy Oxides? Differenet stages of the market may call for different tactics!

-Donald


(Abhishek Basumallick) #12

While I have not really studied Vinati, I have done some due diligence on Balaji Amines. I have it in my portfolio and am not selling. My reasons are mainly that I think that it will do well once its newer capacities and hotel is complete. So, 2013 onwards it should do very well. Nothing much has changed with the attractiveness of the business. They still make import substitutes and have a strong client base. There will be ups and downs in any business and as I am not a very good timer of the markets, I would rather stay put.

For a stock/business to do well over an extended period of time, I think the most important requirement is scope of opportunity and management integrity. If you think back over the years you will find this to be true. Infosys, Wipro, TCS, Titan and other such wealth creators had both these characteristics. So, I spend maximum of my energy in looking at these two factors (and there is no silver bullet here). Over a shorter term lot of other factors are important including technical and fundamental factors.


(Bobby Mehrotra) #13

Hi Donald,

Congratulations…you are going great…it was a pleasure to add my few cents on astral…i do log in very often and go thru the threads…


(Donald Francis) #14

Thanks Bobby for your hard work and inputs on Astral. Hope this year you are energised to put in much more work, and earn credits among the prolific contributors, and that much more moolah!


(Manish Kulkarni) #15

Good job, Donald & team!


(PATURI BAPAIAH CHOUDARY) #16

Good job. Thanks for the seniors for their hard work. keep it up.


(Administrator) #17

ValuePickr recently completed 2 years as a collaborative stock picking platform. Time to take stock, again!


ValuePickr Scorecard 2 Apr 2012









ValuePickr Long-Term Portfolio Idea Initiation Reccomendation Lowest level Highest Level CMP Absolute Annualised Current View

Min 2-5 years Hold Timeframe Date Price Date Price since Recco since Recco 27-Apr-12 Returns Returns
1 Suprajit Engineering* 16-Mar-10 17.7 14-Jan-11 20.8 16.5 23 20.8 0.00% 0.00% Hold; Review Initiated
2 Balkrishna Industries* 17-Mar-10 122.55 18-Aug-10 134.59 114.3 302 292 116.96% 58.48% Hold; Add on declines
3 Mayur Uniquoters 18-Aug-10 237 10-Feb-11 240 232 520 464 93.33% 53.33% Hold; Add on declines
4 Gujarat Reclaim 18-Aug-10 1001 26-Aug-10 1007.2 911.9 2020 1796 78.32% 44.75% Hold; Add on declines
5 Ajanta Pharma 17-Jan-11 180.65 17-Jan-11 180.65 173 604 571 216.08% 172.86% Hold; Add on declines
6 Astral Poly Technik 2-Mar-11 124.05 29-Mar-11 125 121 224 200 60.00% 60.00% Hold; Add on declines
7 PI Industries* 7-Mar-11 297 7-Mar-11 297 345 630 530 78.45% 78.45% Hold; Add on declines
* Price adjusted for splits/bonus










Notes:
This is an informal scorecard, as Recco dates are approximate. The first instance when Initiator/Others have disclosed positions/intention to buy more has been taken as Recco date
Usual names figure in the Recco list - Ayush Mittal, Hitesh Patel, Mahesh Shah, Donald Francis. Many prolific stock pickers have since joined. Hope to see more names next time
More than a 100 individual stock threads exist at ValuePickr, only threads seeing maximum participation/digging work/research- Management Q&A/Stock story picked
This is as impressive a record as any â especially as Markets have gone nowhere. We need to keep up the good work and prove this is no flash-in-the-pan fluke.Congratulations! ValuePickrs!
We have certainly become better at Stock selection and Capital Allocation over the last 2 years. Time to bring more focus to the exercise.
We will formally maintain scorecard records for 2 portfolios â ValuePickr Long Term (2-5 years) and ValuePickr Opportunistic (6-9 months)
A review is initiated on whether to maintain Suprajit in this Portfolio. All others have performed extremely well and we have good visibility and comfort in the business going forward. Many of these have completed/are completing expansion programs and will derive important operational leverage from that. Please check/comment in individual threads with your observations, if any.

ValuePickr Opportunistic Portfolio Idea Initiation Reccomendation Lowest level Highest Level CMP Absolute Annualised Current View

Min 6-9 months Hold Timeframe Date Price Date Price since Recco since Recco 27-Apr-12 Returns Returns
1 Manjushree Technopack 17-Mar-10 44.25 12-May-10 43.55 41.75 107.75 80 83.70% 41.85% Hold, Add more at current levels
2 Atul Auto 19-Sep-11 97 10-Oct-11 98 86 143 134 36.73% 62.97% Hold, Add on declines
3 Indag Rubber 15-Nov-11 147 1-Dec-11 150 120 238 202 34.67% 83.20% Hold, Add on declines
4 Oriental Carbon 19-Aug-11 114 24-Oct-11 111 82 148 111 0.00% 0.00% Hold, Add on declines
Notes:
+The Short Term Portfolio exercise first arose out of discussions and needs from a Capital Allocation framework point of view
+We quickly realised, this is also a natural way of working through new stock ideas. Take positions, and build conviction as the business delivers
+Accent is on sheer undervaluation, but good improving fundamentals, low risks with low debt, good dividends are investment cornerstones
+Some of these may well make their way to the Long Term Portfolio in line with business performance and our conviction maturing
+The Opportunistic Portfolio is also an excellent way of Keeping enough CASH available â to switch, redeploy, and take advantage of big corrections in the market
Need for Critical Review:
1. This time round, there are no obvious bloomers. We are improving and that's encouraging.
2. There are many other businesses which have done very well over the last 1 year -despite uncertain markets.
3. Which are these businesses that have not got enough attention at ValuePickr, and why?
4.Reviewing these misses, will help us get better at what we are doing well -Separating the Wheat from the Chaff!!
Congratulations! ValuePickrs!

(Vivek Gautam) #18

The problem with Suprajit in my opinion is

  1. Lack of pricing power due to it being getting squeezed between OEM n RM suppliers.As such it may be focussing on fewlarge customers.

  2. How big is the size of opportunity n how severe is the competion?

  3. is there Fire in belly of the promoters?


(Vivek Gautam) #19

So Donalds ji & other valuepickrs with above 3 filters which I have listed for Suprajit which are the companies that becomes top picks?c


(kishor barhate) #20

Dear Admin & all valupickrs… Publishing scorecard is excellent efforts. May i request following Can this long term & short term valuepicker portfolios can be made dynamic? i.e. new entry, current view, CMP etc could be added/changed as & when it happens or changes rather than updating them quarterly or so…Feel this may help all contributors & regular readers lot… Request Administrator & senior members may find suitable solution for this. However,just as a suggestion, one option can be explored is is to prepare online google spreadsheet which automatically fetches CMP from googlefinance & also updates calculated columns. Such spreadsheet can be owned by administrator OR designated member. New entry / current view can be edited by administrator OR designated member only for changes as & when they happens. And such spreadsheet can be shared with registered users of portal with view only rights…