Previous Post Update
38 > 43
Breaking out again (Reverse HNS Pattern)
Next resistance is 48 so same will be considered as next target
1 Like
MSTC, Monthly - 8 month consolidation post the scrappage policy announcement. This is an exciting value-play in the e-auction, e-procurement, e-retail space, mainly for PSUs but also growing into the private sector. There’s even a foray into setting up a power exchange. This company is a little bit all over the place. There is a change in focus in the last one year with the discontinuation of the trading business. Lot of details in the MSTC thread.
The PnLs of this company can be very confusing due to the change in nature of business and also the possibly aggressive revenue-recognition, provisions, write-offs and then write-backs etc. that have happened in the past. These should stop going forward as per recent concall. The same can be seen in the balance sheet as well which has been pretty poor in the past but has been improving quite drastically in the last couple of years where receivables are down drastically, along with the debt and cash going up. Valuations net of cash are still very cheap considering market size for scrap after the scrappage policy (check thread and concalls)
Zee Ent, Monthly - Big bullish candle after 1.5 years of consolidation around 200 month MA. Fundamentals are well known but this is still high-risk depending on which way the recently announced deal goes, along with Invesco’s support for it. Several variables are at play so please deal with caution.
Premco, Monthly - Undergoing consolidation around previous congestion zone.This business was a microcap market darling in the last bullrun and fell out of grace when that ended.
TTM PAT at all time high by a big margin, the RoCE is back at 25% levels last seen 5 years ago and yet its trading at just a 8x P/E. Business prospects appear good with all the businesses Premco supplies to like Lux, Rupa, Jockey etc. all doing well.
Disc: Have positions in all at around current levels. I am not SEBI regd. RIA. I am a newbie so please do your own analysis.
17 Likes
Gail outperforming technically and doing breakout despite negative news
And Peer companies not looking good on charts
1 Like
Cigarette Sector
Godfrey Phillips India Limited 1.5 year Breakout
Vst Industries Limited
ITC After a Good Movement doing some rest 235 is an important support
My Tech View (I might be 100% wrong please do your own analysis )
ITC > Godfrey Phillips > VST
Fundamental
Nothing new as such but yes colleges are getting open, YOLO them has already started good strength in hotel stocks
3 Likes
Orissa Minerals Development Company
The company was engaged in mining operations. The Company’s segments are Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, and Sponge Iron. The Company operates in India till 2011
Mining stopped due to environmental reasons
But now after 10 years, they have received environmental clearance.
Refer
https://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=ba5a0150-e8dd-4023-a9e2-eac6a22e1550
Mining work will start again after 11 years from Jan 2022 probably
For previous sales data, one can refer to their website, annual report from 2006 are their
https://www.birdgroup.co.in/omdc/annual-reports/
3 years weekly chart looks good
At nice support, Volume profile is also good
Omdc revenue mostly(98%) comes from iron ore only hence iron ore price chart is also important
Iron ore price chart
Heavy drop reached even reached below pre covid level
But no problem as such company will still be nicely profitable at this price also high iron ore price is a plus point
Disclaimer >> Invested
Please do your analysis
4 Likes
Dynemic, Weekly - Price/Volume Breakout from an upward consolidation channel. Looks like the AGM has kindled the animal spirits 
Having firm guidance with good confidence makes market front-load a lot of the returns as those near-future earnings get discounted quickly. AGM notes in the thread nicely covers everything. At a guided FY23 EBITDA of 110 Cr, this is trading at about 8x FY23E EV/EBITDA.
Risks: Near term, the interest and depreciation can skew the PnL a fair bit (Maybe additional 5 Cr of Int+Dep total can hit the PnL per quarter). If this becomes common knowledge, and is not a surprise, and the market is buoyed by the guidance, its perhaps nothing to worry about.
Ambika Cotton, Monthly - ATH breakout on the monthly chart couple of months back, a pullback and looks set to resume uptrend. Owing to that volatile month in 2018, it has only this week hit ATH on the weekly on closing basis. At this point, all supply from seems exhausted. Fundamentally, the management has guided for 800 Cr topline in the AGM. Provided the recently elevated margins of around 25% sustain , its currently trading at 5x FY22E EV/EBITDA at 1000 Cr.
Risks: 25% margins might be over-projecting near-term tailwinds. Still at current valuation, we might be paying fair price, considering the management is good and dividend payouts have been good and the business is being bought at < 2x book.
Disc: Have positions in both. Dynemic from 500 levels or so, added further post AGM. Ambika from around 1750 or so last week. I am a novice so please consult someone more experienced or dig deeper on your own before buying.
14 Likes
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited
Oil price increasing
When everyone try to act smart this kind of stuff happens due to the risk of EV over petrol/disel cars all funds and investments to oil exploration stopped
Result >> EV is not coming and crude chart is breaking out probably will reach 70 to 95
ONGC should go from 146(CMP) to 175
OIL_BRENT
As the oil price is increasing hence investment in Nasdaq can be beneficial for Indians
India is an importer of crude oil so us dollar will be heavy against INR
So you will get Nasdaq rise as well as ruppe weakening benefit against US dollar
So approximately 15-20% return on capital
(I might be 100% wrong do your own analysis)
OIL_BRENT
NDX
I prefer Motilal Oswal NASDAQ 100 ETF for investment
Motilal Oswal NASDAQ 100 ETF
4 Likes
Just Dail
Tech
Breakout and 21 MA bounced on 55 MA which is really good
DBL
Funda
Nothing new as such one can refer topic itself
entire realty sector doing good hence posted
Tech
Good breakout with nice BO
KEC International
Nothing special as such but tech looks great
KEC International is primarily engaged in Engineering, Procurement and Construction business (EPC) relating to infrastructure internal products, projects and systems and related activities for power transmission, distribution, railway and other EPC businesses
Motherson Sumi Systems Limited
Again same thing nothing new as such but auto sales going up check subros
Auto sector booming hence added chart
3 Likes
Chart # 7 - L&T Finance Holding
CMP 93.1 Short Term Target 101 SL - 91.3 (100 SMA)
Price giving breakout about trendline and 200 SMA with decent volumes.
The overhang of deterioted asset quality after covid wave is bound to get better. The company has made adequate provisioning in the past. In August, ICRA revised their rating outlook from AAA negative to stable. Complete Rationale -
https://www.icra.in/Rationale/ShowRationaleReport?Id=105398
1 Like
@hitesh2710 sir,
Do you still carry a position in Bhagiradha Chemicals? Stock has almost reached the target. How do you like to play such a low liquid stock?
Disc. Carrying a technical position from around 500.
DBL
Previous post update
Nice return in short time
628 > 740 (High Today) CMP 725
It has made 3 year high so i used 5 year weekly chart now
Next target will be 865
2 Likes
The Federal Bank Limited
5 Year Weekly Breakout rev HNS
DCB Bank
1 year Daily Trigular Wedge breakout
Funda >> Nothing special as such for both the banks but the entire baking sector is booming
Bank Nifty
5 Year Weekly Breakout
3 Likes
Indiabulls Real-estate, Weekly - Coming out of a flag formation (consolidation in an uptrend). Far from its peaks of 2008 RE bull run of 700+ levels. Fundamentals are a lot better than in FY18 so at least on a relative basis, this ought to trade above 250 levels sooner or later. I don’t know how to value this business, or any RE business for that matter, so using these hacks as a replacement.
The promoter and CG issues have tainted this stock for sometime now. However this should not be a problem going forward with the proposed merger with Embassy group fructifying (merged entity to be called Embassy Developments).
The merged entity will have good mix of commercial+residential
distributed across west and south
Also will be huge in terms of size - here’s how the merged entity will be in related to the rest
They have deleveraged significantly and consolidated net debt now stands at < 1000 Cr as of Sept 2021.
Risks: The Embassy group is also politically connected and may be as clean only on a relative basis to IB group.
MSTC, Weekly - Update from earlier post. The run-up from 300 levels has been swift, probably because this is a PSU & a part-platform business and both things have been in vogue last couple of weeks :-). Technically has broken past the long-term resistance trendline which should be launching this in a new trajectory for current uptrend. Fundamentally, valuation still remains cheap but the business has to show the transformation they have been talking about for a couple of quarters and Sept balance sheet should have more clues on how things are heading. How the scrappage policy plays out from Apr '22 will be known in the future but the market seems to have started to discount that already.
Disc: Hold MSTC from 300 levels. Bought Indiabulls RE around 150 levels last week.
18 Likes
262 high today target achieved almost now their are chances of consolidation
many people short call of itc due to suden unwinding of calls high rise happens
OI has increased PCR is still low
1 Like
SEAMEC - Flag and Pole formation work in progress
1 Like
I would have liked it to hold 1057 odd level but today it went down
Another high tight flag is JSW energy
1 Like
Smallcap 50, Monthly - Probably my first bearish view in this thread. It looks like we are topping out. The vertical rally has had resistance at around current levels and it broke out last few weeks where there were crazy moves in some names and an equally swift price rejection. The consequence, it looks like a breakdown not just of this minor breakout, but a possible bearish turn for the 18 month rally with the doji formation. Month is not yet over though, so things may still turn but risk:reward perhaps has turned unfavorable.
Disc: Have been closing trading positions in most names except where I see visibility of good numbers in the near-term
31 Likes