Hi isn’t it a possibility that it can dip to where it broke out (retest) and form a handle and go up again …although small caps have moved a lot I don’t think the euphoria levels are at the level where it was in 2017 or 2008
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Previous Post Update
Idfc First Bank
In breakout condition now
Funda
Nothing new as such but results are on 30 OCTOBER 2021 Let’s see
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Mukta Arts
Previous Post Update
48 resistance crossed CMP 51
now in yearly high condition with breakout
current chart
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DFM foods, on a monthly long term chart basis forming a cup an handle formation in progress with 3+ years of consolidation - though handle formation not complete yet( its around 420 - 430 price range).
Q2 results due and fundamental are good though didn’t perform in last one year ( case with many FMCG)
Question to seniors- @hitesh2710 , @phreakv6, and other seniors practicing technicals+funda, - how do we approach and build positions in such cases like DFM with least amount of opportunity cost - wait till formation is complete and there is breakout with volume - or can start to add( say 1/4th of desired allocation)as strong base is also formed and add more on breakout. Usually post breakout after long consolidation it runs up pretty fast.
( bounced multiple times from 330 and has been in range of 330 to 430 petty much over last year), this qualifies as good fundamentals pick also more details here on fundamentals ( story of PE- Advent taking over and sharp mgmt team driving turn around )
Invested with minor allocation, trying to learn optimal ways of capital deployment
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Hey dev
Few observations based points for your consideration
- I always track a scrip for outperformance over nifty and it’s specific index. It should fall less and move more when the opportunity comes.
- Also the volumes on up day should be more than the days when it’s down or consolidating.
- The sector if has tail winds then the chances to make money improves significantly.
- And finally try and mix some funda along , like delivering better results than expected or consistency in growth or better margins or revenue growth…
- Ideally I keep buying them a weekly pivot support and add on fresh breakout.
Regards
Divyansh
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- I always track a scrip for outperformance over nifty and it’s specific index. It should fall less and move more when the opportunity comes.
Hi Divyansh,
If possible, could you please share how to do this?
Thanks!!
Regards
Raja
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RS relative strength indicator may help
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Hello
- There are many days to do that … You can do it manually and collate data on daily weekly and monthly basis
- One can use trading view where one can see the price charts and a option of % moves from a datum or date.
- Mere observance on a daily basis will give u hints as to what might unravel, above two are more systemic in nature and pretty accurate as well.
Regards
Divyansh
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8/ LESSON #6: Fundamentals follow price, not vice versa The bubble popped in Q1 2000. Fundamentals didn’t decelerate until Q4 2000. It was reflexivity at work. Lower stock prices = less capex spend = less revenue growth = lower stock prices. A vicious cycle
Pl read this why price is more important than fundamentals to do an entry or exit
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GMMPFAUDLER
With the consolidation ranges moving up - the technical is looking tempting to me. Cash conversion cycle etc, however, is a concern. But, considering the quality of company, I think, its worth taking risk.
Disclaimer: I’m already invested from lower levels; view may be biased.
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Dear Kartik,
I am reading this as a shorting opportunity . Please correct me if I am wrong
Thanks Karthik for the quick response. I got it. So, the next level to look out for should be 78.6 which is somehow missing in my snapshot here.
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Thanks for the find!
At what price does the CH pattern get negated? A candle closing below the low of the handle?
Hello All,
Vinati Organics seems to be making a HS pattern on daily chart. I suppose the neckline is being re-tested at this point with downside open till 1530. The brown line is a long term trendline that I have drawn from Dec’20 which appears to be have breached as of now, but not with enough strength yet.
Views & Counterviews invited
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Looking at Vaibhav Global’s monthly chart, it seems to be making a rounding top pattern with neckline around 540, isn’t it? So now my query is, how long does it take for the pattern to play out on monthly chart? The RSI seems to have broken down completely.
Line chart pattern
very good rounding bottom with cup and handle forming . company is famous onida brand owner and constantly increasing sales every quarter
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CCL Products seems as it is at the cusp of breakout. It has consolidated strongly between 360 to 410 for the past 5 months. Even in the carnage for the midcap stocks it did not go below 375 levels. Fridays volume numbers were almost 3 times the average.
CCL has been a stock that always stays within a very tight range and is not a traders delight.
But the fundamental triggers far outweigh the current valuation to make it cross the previous highs of 495.
- Domestic branded play: Continental brand domestically in the B2C is growing strongly. Growth has been an impressive 40% plus. Management expects to end sales with 200 cr for FY22. This brand can easily grow with a cagr by 30% for the next 3 years. A growing B2C in an expanding category like coffee can easily get a 15 multiple on sales. Nestle trades at approx 13-14 times sales with a growth of 10 percent. Cannot compare both but something needed to put a number on. Don’t know the margins on the branded business but overall margins of 24% give a feel that branded would surely be on the higher side.
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Domestic moat supplier: A lot of coffee brands have sprung up in the recent years domestically and this is what the management said.
“Actually I think you will be surprised to know that almost all the startups that are there
we are or will be supplying to them in the near future so it is good that they are
expanding the market and we are part of that expansion and anyone who wants to get into
the premium space, they have understood very clearly that they have no choice but to
come to us, so we are working with a lot of these startups as well so it has been a very
interesting learning experience to see what they are doing and the kind of valuations that
they are getting, it is quite interesting to see.” - International branded play: The company has launched its international brand too in export markets but still in watch mode as per the management as how the product gets accepted. This is another B2C play for the future and a huge market to capture if and when they do get successful. The play here is that the company is researching and launching different new products to help expand the selection category for consumers.
- Capacity expansion: Current capacity of 35,000(25K India + 10K Vietnam) tonnes has expanded by 3500 tonnes (Viet) which will be available for the full next quarter onwards. The company plans to add another 13.5K tonnes capacity in Vietnam over the next year too and has already started working towards that.
- Market Demand: Current capacity of 35K is operating at peak or higher utilization levels and expanded capacity of 3.5K will also operate at full utilizations.
CCL seems like a long term play if their branded business plays out as planned and international branded gets good market share too. This can trigger a rerating in the stock but it is an extremely range bound mover. But if the market believes in their story the rerating for such stocks is extremely fast.
A close above 410 with strong volumes will give belief in this story.
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