Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

One can always find ample data to support any bullish or bearish view. But macros are not in our control and pondering over them will do us no good. In stead, here are couple of things I try to manage risk in my portfolio.

1. Never track macro : Almost always, the market is the leading indicator of macro, not the trailing indicator. When the markets rise or fall, the real underlying cause is visible only after couple of quarters when it’s already too late.

2. Be prepared to take losses : Taking losses or submitting paper gains is just a part of operating in the market. Being prepared for it beforehand saves us from the emotion turmoil that follows. In this context, it is important to know the difference between odd and edge. We may have edge even when odds are not in our favor. For example, if I have a hit rate of only 33% but my winners make 50k on average and the losers lose 10k on average, then net net, it is a winning system.

3. Never fall in love with your stocks : It is important to avoid developing affinity or hatred for any stock. It is important to do so the make the mind bias free. It’s not our job to defend or cheer lead any company. A shareholder is different from the management. In fact, it’s the very reason that prevents me from participating in discussions around the stock.

4. Position sizing and risk management : This is more important than finding gems at throwaway price : At times, we all lay our hand on gems and at times, we all burn our hands in some stock or other. Initial entry point is not a significant reason for the profit or loss we make. For this, I use a trailing stop loss, not all at once, but sell a chunk everytime a support is broken. Selling at loss, is one of the most difficult things to do because it not only make our paper loss real but it also subconsciously enforce the idea in our mind that our initial hypothesis of investing that particular stock is wrong. One real life saver in this case is that almost every broker in India now permits to place good till cancelled stop loss order. Personally, I put a stop loss the same evening I buy something. Stop losses are permitted to be revised upward but not permitted to revised downward.

Another important concept here is position sizing. Even when we find the best opportunity to invest, always think in terms what is the maximum we can lose and size our position accordingly. It is always better to be alive for another day to fight back after the carnage.

5. Markets are supreme : Markets are always supreme. It will not rise just because I think they are undervalued. Similarly, it will not fall just because my personal opinion is that I find it overvalued. I need to adjust my mindset and expectation according to the market, not vice versa.

Feedbacks welcome.


Very useful information. I would like to know how you decide to sell a position? Please give your feedback on the same.

Thank you

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I would give my idea of selling a position, which according to me is based on the timeframe for the investment.

  1. Long term Investment(More than 3 yrs): Only when you need the money- This is the investment type that is to bought and kept for as long as possible, only liquidating it when in dire need of money. By keeping your portfolio intact, you are increasing the possibility of having one stock that gives you 30% CAGR for 20 years period.
  2. Medium term investment (0-3 yrs): Profit booking on reaching a set target or tax loss harvesting- For medium term the approach should to have some set targets (e.g. 3x times change in index during the same period) to initiate the profit booking. If using index returns to set the profit targets, use appropriate sectoral indices or indices based on market cap of the share.
  3. Intraday trading: Maximise the hold time- Initiate the trade as soon as possible and square off as late as possible.

@devaki.tripathy Thanks for sharing your “five mantras” for investment in the stock market. These should be the touchstone used before making any investment decision. While four or your five tenets are agreeable with my style of investing, I have my reservations with the first statement of “Never track macro”. I have experienced that inclusion of macro parameters along with their forecasts makes the system more robust. The crux is to get the macro forecast more accurate than what the market is predicting.



I generally try to buy and sell in 3 tranches. After buying the first tranche, if the stock moves in expected direction, I add two more times after around 10% rise each. If the movement is not as per expectation, stop loss gets triggered. After the acquisition, I always try to place a trailing stop loss which is revised upwards in every 1-2 weeks or stay the same as per the stock’s movement. After the previous support is breached, first stop loss gets triggered and after each 5% fall, SL2 and SL3 gets triggered. After buying a stock, we generally develop an affinity towards the stock and selling it after surrendering paper gains is really difficult. So I try to make the process as automated as possible. The process is not perfect and will never be. We all need to learn and implement continuously.

It is quite helpful for someone if he/she has an alternate profession and don’t need to depend on the markets for daily expenses. Let the market decide when it wants to throw us out.

Some people are really objective towards evolving macro and change decisions accordingly. For the rest of us, macro makes our views biased and create a self reinforcing negative feedback loop.

Moreover, macro is subjective and can’t be quantified. Two months ago, we all were impressed by the power of LLMs and the kind of productivity gain it would bring in the white collar professions. AI was expected to lead us to the next information age. Right now, we all are worried about an impending crash in China because of the signs like housing bubble, population decline, high youth unemployment etc. If China really performs bad, it would send shockwaves across the globe. Whether one is a pessimist or an optimist, one can always find data to support and reinforce that particular view point.


Good rounding bottom pattana with volume.

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  • The Company in June 2023, started receiving the transmission of power from its captive hybrid wind and solar power project.
    With the commissioning of this 10.8 MW project, the company is estimated to receive 50 million units of renewable power on an annual basis with savings of more than INR 10 crore annually.

  • The PBILDT margin is expected to improve to around 8%-10% (from current 4-5%).
    The margin is expected to improve due to the implementation of the BIS certification, which should restrict cheaper imports from China.

  • FIL is working on a pilot project for recycling any form of polyester waste into chips. It may plan to implement a large-sized commercial project for recycling in the future if the pilot is successful.

as and when there is a breakout from the red line, the target can be till the green lines.


Hi @Rahil_Dasani , great pick, but doesn’t it feel like it has already given a breakout in the previous weeks from its resistance (with good volumes) and is now ready to move up after giving a retest on that level?

there is the 200ema breakout, but that is not enough for me to initiate a position.
I am too waiting for the retest to make an entry, and will top up after the red line breakout

I am new to techninal analysis (more of a fundamental guy). Hence, requesting all technical experts to correct where my understanding is wrong on below analysis:

Stock: Ashoka Buildcon
Fundamental trigger is visible in near future due to sale of road assets which was an overhang since a long time. Management has guided for sale to happen by Dec '23.

Technical: This is where I seek your guidance

Stock was in stage 1 since last 15 months (check maroon line). Towards the end of this period, 200 DMA line became flattish with low volumes. Now, it has broken that resistance with higher volume and stock has started moving up. Current price of Rs. 122 seems to be another resistance although not a strong resistance. I feel it should cross Rs. 150 if the momentum sustains.

RSI has crossed 60. (somewhere I read this is strong indicator).

Please advice what is wrong in this understanding?


Based on the recent daily volumes, might be the case that buyers have factored in the sale which you mentioned, a good entry range was around 88-92 based on the daily chart (there was a strong wide range candle with high volumes) which confirmed moving out of stage 1 are. Now, the price might be tested around 125-130 and see a small pullback or it will keep continuing going up. I would personally see how it reacts in 125-130 range.


@Ash_99 Right now the stock is close to its ATH, but hasn’t given a decent enough breakout from its previous resistance which was made in September of the previous year. Although it did bounce a few days back with great volumes but was rejected at its resistance. Looking at its Daily candles, it does seem like the breakout might come, but it’s better to have a breakout and then enter at a retest than to enter it right now and it might not give a breakout at all.

Its been almost a month since my last two bearish sounding posts. All I hear in the news these days are yields, crude and dollar strength. Unfortunately, nothing in life is so black and white.

I am still bearish enough to be 40% cash and bullish enough to have moved from 60% cash to 40% cash since 10 days. There are still value bets with fundamental tailwinds and/or triggers to be found in this overheated market and that’s where our focus should be.

There are odds that we might undo 40 years of globalisation going forward. What that might do to interest rates, inflation, valuations is downright scary but that’s not the only possible outcome.

There are some stocks which are showing significant strength above 12th Sept Open/Close - this is the pool of strength to fish from, if you are a trader. As market breath narrows, this pool generally gains significantly.

Some new bets / adds to old bets -

Shilchar, Daily - Was consolidating in a channel. Has broken out since

This is an old bet I had reduced but have scaled it back up post the AGM. The management is guiding for 350 Cr sales in FY24 and getting to 800-1000 Crs in 3-4 yrs with margins maintained at FY23 levels. Still quite cheap as compared to TRIL which is primarily a power transformer play (much lower per MVA realisation) and also doesn’t have UL certification like Shilchar that allows Shilchar to export a lot to US markets. Given the margin profile, I dont see why Shilchar shouldn’t trade at higher valuations against TRIL (same thesis as last time). The energy transition theme will continue to play out irrespective of what else happens in the world. Should however see if funding continues in a high-rate environment with the same zest as current

Garware Hi-Tech, Weekly - Discussed earlier in this thread here. Was showing significant strength after the AGM. Management is showing signs of being fairer to shareholders. Business also is doing very well with PPF exports picking up a lot. One of the earlier ones to gain from the Sept 12 lows. Still considerably undervalued compared to rest of the market

Goodluck, Daily - Came in the radar again as it passed the Sept 12 Open/Close and was trading near 52 wk highs in a very weak market

Business is undergoing a transformation from low margin ERW pipes business towards precision tubes (shocks, steering, fuel injection etc), forging and precision fabrication

The margin contribution is much higher in precision tubes amd forging and thats where the expansion currently is happening.

Incidentally, after I took a position, there was an announcement of capital raise to the tune of 96 Cr - around 30 Cr from promoters and 66 Cr from others via pref allotment and warrants (at 600 Rs. which should be bottom) towards defence and aerospace forging foray

Beekay, Monthly - Appears to be a long-term breakout.

Fundamentally as well from Q4, Maheshwari Ispat which they acquired cheaply willl start contributing. The total contribution from this plant is expected to be ~800 Cr with a 10% or so margin. The ramp-up though might take a year or two to get there. There are long-term triggers as well in FY25-FY26 from their Kalinganagar plant. Not a very liquid stock, so I could only buy a small position

Disc: 40% cash, so views might be bearish. 60% invested, so views might be bullish. Have position from Garware from 1000 levels and added around 1300. Shilchar from much lower levels, added around 1500. Goodluck between 600-620 and Beekay between 615-650. Writing for self clarity. I am very much a novice and could be wrong in my judgement


Hi Vpers, I am Ex PSU Banker (Indian Bank erstwhile Allahabad Bank), resigned after putting 9 years of service in March 2020 just before Covid started and at the time when the PSU Banking sector was facing the strongest Headwinds with huge NPAs. At that time just after the announcement of merger of Allahabad Bank with Indian Bank the Indian Bank share tanked like anything from 180 odd levels to 38 levels. The share peak price was 400 and fell more than 90% from there. At that time I had little understanding of the stock market, though I was buying and selling stocks just like naive investor.
Now since I have gained some basic understanding and created well diversified portfolio for myself the thought of missing the opportunity to acquire some stock at that point from where things could go only in positive directions and especially when the Indian Bank was not showing as bad earning as other PSU banks were showing.
The point of putting this post is that now again the stock has reached or even moved 5% above that previous peak level of 400, what Idea do you get after observing the chart pattern. The pattern in in blue sky zone if it is fair to say.
The P/B has peaked though at 1.1.


There is a significant spike in the 10 year US Bond Yields . It is inching towards 5 percent now. Despite the crude recently settling at 85 levels, thus giving the hope that inflation would be controlled. Still there is no fall in the yields.

The gap between 10 year US yield and Indian Yield has reduced. Thus making the Indian Market as unattractive.

I think, this is the last leg of the rally. According to me, a correction of 5-10 pc cant be ruled out.


Mazda, Monthly - Broken out of a near 5 year resistance last month. Re-tested it this week (also the Sept 12th Open/Close) and seems to be getting a move on.

Fundamentally, the company has two lines of business - Engineering division that makes products like vacuum systems, condensors and other such process equipment used across industries and Food division that manufactures instant drinks mixes, jams, squashes, soy sauce, flavouring essences and extracts and food colouring. It markets them under their own brand bcool (instagram / amazon) but this is primarily a B2B play.

Snapshot from AR

The antiscale product could have pretty wide application across industries and the management has achived reasonable success in this new product already. Food business margins should go up along with increase in turnover from here on. The capex which is completed should be sufficient for 10 yrs growth as per management (Last expansion was 15 years ago)

The company did its first concall last month. It looks like they have enough orders for current year in the engineering division. The company has decent market share in its products. ZLD could have a tailwind with the crackdown on pollution.

The new capex in the food division has started commencement from March but has had few issues stabilising and those teething issues seem to have been resolved as of last month, so contribution should increase going forward. Food division has only 18% revenues from domestic and the rest is exports. They dont want to scale distribution too fast before understanding the nuances, so will very likely not be making heavy investments until they are sure of what works where.

A lot of the B2B food business is repeat in nature. They seem to have a knack of retaining customers and maintaining relationships by not cutting corners or taking shortcuts

The guidance is for a growth of 15% over FY23 which isn’t bad considering the big jump in FY23. Also the margins of the company are trending up structurally as compared to the past. The valuation is not very demanding at 15x, given the growth prospects.

I liked how candid and conservative the management is - multiple places in the concall they correct the optimism of the participants and are also very knowledgeable in their line of business, which is a big plus in a 400 Cr market cap company. The new young hires made by the company shows that the business is trying to make a transformation as it grows bigger. I also like the fact that company doesn’t want to gain market share at the expense of margins but would rather foray into new products (like the antiscaling product) and establish new footholds which is essential for growth from 200 Cr topline to 500 Cr topline.

Disc: Have positions between 1000-1200


Update on previous post-

Deccan Cements

Stock near 52 week high. More upside if crosses that.
New factors - South India Cement prices are hiked by ~10%
As mentioned in previous post, DCL is a low cost cement producer and was PAT positive when other south players posted losses. If sustained, this price hike can result in super profits which will further help their capex.

Also found this article where they awarded contract to KHD, same firm used by the likes of Ultratech and other biggies.

Update on Dhanlaxmi Bank - had a good run up of >50%
quarterly update showed growth on all fronts


PML Weekly - Bouncing off the 20 WMA. Hopefully the sideways movement is done. Fundamentals in the PML thread

Swelect Energy, Monthly - Long term breakout in a C&H or Inverted H&S sort of formation and trading above those levels last 3 months. Also has a flag formation on the weekly

New module plant of 500 MW has started production from Aug or so and should contributing to numbers in this FY, starting from this quarter.

Fundamentally, this year 100 Cr ebitda possible which is a 25% growth - that means its trading around 13-15x EV/EBITDA. Not cheap but not expensive either, considering at 500 MW nameplate capacity, this can probably do 150 Cr EBITDA next year and can potentially be valued 25x or 30x EV/EBITDA by then (if Waaree IPO lists well)

The company has also sold its alloys business (Amex alloys) for 110 Cr as of yesterday (pretty good valuation) to focus on modules and going forward a backward integration into cells as well. The company is also into EPC and IPP business so is somewhat in the entire value-chain, at a smaller scale than Waaree Energy which should be listing soon.


  1. Crash in module prices due to imports could mess up the payback period for the capex done. Import should probably get restricted in a couple of quarters
  2. Risk of tech going obsolete. But this might be at least 7 years away as of now as the new plant has the latest tech
  3. Our stated goal is 50 GW per year as per MNRE, we are already somewhere around 37 GW in capacity. High growth can continue for another couple of years but later on, if we don’t find export markets, there could be margin pressures as it doesn’t seem to be particularly hard to scale this business (somewhat reminds me of diagnostics businesses - although here there is scope of reinvestment by backward integration further down the value-chain and also scope for exports)

Disc: Have positions from 540 levels in Swelect. PML from 550 levels (No recent transactions. PML isn’t cheap at these levels)


Ceinsys, Monthly - Long-term breakout post 5 year consolidation.

The business used to be primarily into GIS offering navigation and HD maps, photogrammetry (topographic maps of terrain), LiDAR based work etc… The clients were primarily govt. (mostly state, municipal). The company thus has poor cash conversion and might likely have to writeoff some receivables in the near future. The company trades cheap for this reason (I think)

Whats changing is the company has acquired AllyGrow which appears to be a far superior business with good global clientele. The company has decent financials

AllyGrow has around 54 Cr sales with around 16 Cr profits roughly. Ceinsys has paid 58 Cr for acquiring AllyGrow - 12 Cr paid in cash and rest in stock. AllyGrow was held by a PE fund (Zodius) which was winding up. Though optically it may look cheap, Zodius having been paid in Ceinsys stock realised a much higher value while selling their Ceinsys holding over the part year. The good news is Zodius is completely out as of Sept SHP

Now its a matter of seeing how much market will be willing to pay for AllyGrow which is in a similar line of business as KPIT. The main GIS business too is looking to reduce dependence on govt. and look at international pvt. clients. Price has run up a lot recently since they won a large Jal Jeevan order (248 Cr). How they will implement this and what the WC requirement will be remains to be seen. I feel its still risky in terms of execution for a company of this small size. I think even if GIS business is valued at zero, AllyGrow itself can cover for a large part of the current market cap. The company has a division called MEG-Nxt which is incubating some cutting-edge tech to utilise digital twin data in VR/Metaverse applications. Risk with receivables remain but I feel its in the price already. Synergy as well between the two businessess is questionable (management thinks AllyGrow gives Ceinsys international presence). Big positive was the way the management answered pretty much all questions patiently in the AGM, be it technical, operational or financial.

Disc: Have positions around 260. Added bit more around 300 today.


KPIT and AllyGrow are into entirely two different domains in Auto engineering, AllyGrow looks like more into hardware structure virtual development, however , KPIT is more into controls, adas, body controls side of things.