ValuePickr- Mumbai

VP City Meets
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The 5th monthly meeting saw a rather subdued attendance of ~40 possibly owing to the India England match. The session, held at the usual venue and time of KJ Somaiya Polytechnic and Sunday 2pm, saw a slightly different format of fewer ‘full’ PPTs, and more ‘my top stock idea’ sessions of 15-25min, where people discuss their top stock holdings.

The full PPT was by Dhruv Shah @dhruv hich featured Intrasoft Technologies, a Kolkata based company which operates 123storesInc, an ecommerce seller getting 70% revenues from Amazon. The session saw discussions on marketplace model, moat evaluation and debates on growth vs margins vs working capital tradeoffs. The investment thesis relies on EBITDA reaching ~5% of sales(from present levels of ~1.5%, and historic levels of 10%), and it remaining working capital negative and capex light.
The ‘my top stock idea’ session had the following PPTs(comments that follow are MY takeaways/thoughts, not necessary what the presenters said, see the PPTs for that)
Sastasundar Ventures(formerly Microsec securities) by @krishari -a NBFC turned core investment company turned epharmacy. Presently they are Kolkata based but have ambitions to scale up.
Indraprashtra Gas by @sharrmasks has seen things working out well on pricing freedom input costs, raw material allocation, friendly policy environment of PNG/CNG etc and hence trades at historically high multiples that factor these in. While it has a long growth runaway, and has a long track record across economic cycles such priced to perfection stocks could see multiples compression even if 1 engine stops firing.
Poddar Developers by @Samar is a Mumbai based affordable housing company, which has its marquee projects in Badlapur. Promoter has the affordable housing DNA as evident from pricing, marketing and construction decisions, and is debt free, thereby helping him resist the urge to ‘launch new projects at any cost’. It is still considered a story stock, but again has a long runaway due to ~21M housing units shortage by 2021.
Take Solutions by @mvmakadia is a Shriram Group promoted, pharma regulatory data management firm which pivoted in the last 5yrs from the supply chain business. They have a large addressable market, poised to explode due to regulatory factors of patent cliffs, filings need etc, and also as they solve a major customer pain point. This firm reminds me of hidden champions.
Kudos to Chandrasekhar @sekhar for helping with the venue+logistics, and Yogesh @Yogesh_s for the successful idea on the my top stock idea, and also reviewing the PPTs in detail, and to @raahill for PPT review.

Important note: Those interested in attending the next sessions please add yourself to the mailing list on https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/valueinvestormumbai Those desiring to join the Whatsapp group please inbox ANY(NOT ALL) of @andy161161 @Yogesh_s @narender -the direct link is suspended for now. DO NOT PUT YOUR MOBILE NUMBERS ON THIS THREAD. Those who wish to discuss their top stock holding can contact Yogesh, or me, and please put your details in this thread too ValueInvestors Mumbai Meetup preferences - Google Sheets

Presentations are below. By downloading them, you agree that all investment decisions are at your own risk, and that this is a business analysis not necessarily an investment recomendation
Poddar Presentation.pptx (89.6 KB)
20170122 - Take Solutions presentation.pptx (109.9 KB)
Intrasoft Technologies - Valuepickr.pptx (2.4 MB)
IGL - Final .ppt (1.4 MB)
SastaSundarVentures.pptx (69.3 KB)

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The next meeting registrations are open in two categories-First Time attendees and regulars. please register under the one which suits you.
https://www.instamojo.com/andy161161/value-investors-meet-19th-feb-2017-somaiya-p/

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The 6th monthly meet held in Feb-17 at Somaiya saw a turnout of ~40 people. This time, the format was one thematic presentation, and 3-4 short presentations on the top stock holding of the presentors. The presentors included
**Anandh Sundar on ‘Investors Guide to GST’-*__ @andy161161 *This presentation explained the GST provisions in brief, and highlighted the oft ignored risk/fine print.
Sagar Arya-on GHCL-@sagararya The presentation, based on a previous blog post(Sagar GHCL Post) and updated for current data, explained why the presentor was bullish on a ‘commodity stock’. The presentation Q&A helped people appreciate whether the company is ‘doing good’ or ‘going through a good time’, and of discounting earlier management sins
Avneesh-On HOEC-@avneesh The presentation started with the stock triggers of HOEC, and then a ballpark estimate of cash flows & P/E. While the company seemed to have a lot of options/projects, there also appeared a lot of uncertainty. Kudos to him for bringing up this little known company, and to audience for bringing up the technical points on reserves types, pricing freedom etc.
**Harshvardhan Agarwal-On Repco-**This low profile TamilNadu based MFI, has recently been the subject of an extremely active Valuepickr thread. In his presentation, Harsh dissected the company’s target segment, earnings, NPAs, valuations while also covering the company’s risks(eg-recent NPA spike in Q3’17 beyond the seasonal dip due to demonetisation). Harsh being an ex NBFC analyst in Motilal Oswal, he brought that institutional flair to the PPT.
Discussion on investing checklist Anandh @andy161161 presented some points on investing mistakes, which sparked some discussions.

Thanks to Yogesh @Yogesh_s @raahill @hhhkaustubh for helping coordinate, and Chandrasekhar for place arrangement @sekhar . Yogesh has been quite active on the VP forum as well on banks, NBFCs and most recently highlighting Ujaas inventory issue, and has sourced speakers for this time. Great job again.

Important note: Those interested in attending the next sessions please add yourself to the mailing list on https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/valueinvestormumbai Those desiring to join the Whatsapp group please inbox ANY(NOT ALL) of @andy161161 @Yogesh_s @narender -the direct link is suspended for now. DO NOT PUT YOUR MOBILE NUMBERS ON THIS THREAD. Those who wish to present or discuss their top stock holding can contact Yogesh, or me, and please put your details in this thread too ValueInvestors Mumbai Meetup preferences - Google Sheets

Presentations are below. By downloading them, you agree that all investment decisions are at your own risk, and that this is a business analysis not necessarily an investment recomendation
GST-An investors perspective.pdf (822.0 KB)
Gujarat Heavy Chemicals Limited.pdf-1.pdf (292.9 KB)
InvestmentChecklistsmistakes.pdf (73.5 KB)
Repco-ValuePickr-Feb17(1).pdf (88.0 KB)
HOEC_Presentation.pptx (300.8 KB)

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Dear All,
Thanks to those who have attended and made the last 6mths meetings a success. For the subsequent meetings, basis feedback, it is decided to invite content well in advance on a structured theme. Please see the possible topics in below spreadhseet
Content Invite

Please volunteer in the above spreadsheet along with details so that it is transparent to all who might present. Once there is a critical mass(with redundancy for dropouts etc), we will announce the next meetup.

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Registrations open for the 7th monthly meet. Link is below(with agenda)

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Vinit Bhat(@VB1) presented on Deep Industries, an asset heavy company into gas compression and dehydration. The company has run up recently, but has ~3yrs revenue visibility in order book without additional capex. However, valuation concerns exist due to inability to demonstrate positive FCF generation, and limited earnings visibility due to Indian scenario of ~3-5yrs contracts. The stock has interesting points like signaling(PE investment in subsidiary signaling potential high IRRs), lender choice(HDFC involvement implying good quality).

Vatsal Shah(@vatsal29) presented on Premier Explosives, which is a Hyderabad based midcap whose investment thesis revolves on transitioning from industrial explosives to defense segment, and value migration to NHN explosives. He emphasized that defence changes are usually multi decades and show up slowly. However, near term triggers for the stock are the Rs 15,000 crore LR SAM missile tender, of which 1.5% could potentially accrue as revenue to the company. Those interested further can research the India Spends report on defence, as also ISRO report on NHN explosives(not included in this presentation).
Yogesh Sane(@Yogesh_s) presented on calculation of investment returns. He opined that for those who actively manage their portfolio spending tremendous time and effort(eg every month Sunday afternoon, reading, posting, whatsapp), they should measure whether they get that elusive alpha of 5%-8%. Besides, is this alpha due to strategy return(Time weighted return) or market timing(Market return)? The discussion burst many myths and while might be known to the CFAs among us, informed the broader audience.
Anandh Sundar(@andy161161) introduced the Stalwarts Advisors checklist, populated with examples of Indian companies, and covered the first 20 points. The next meetings will see further discussion of these points. Discussions brought out the point that checklists often have success stories, failures and counter examples behind them, and one cannot blindly take them for gospel without seeing interdependencies.

  1. As homework for next session, please update the investment checklist discussed yesterday. 2nd tab is for collaborative checklist.
    Value Investors Mumbai Planning - Google Sheets
  2. Those seeking to volunteer please add your details in 1st tab of above sheet
  3. Those interested in being informed about future events by email, please sign up on the link below https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/valueinvestormumbai

20170319 - Deep Industries_vF-1.pdf (876.7 KB)
How to calculate Portfolio Performance.ppt (49 KB)
Performance Measurement.xls (32.5 KB)
Prem. Explosives.xlsx (51.1 KB)
Premier Explosives -R-24022017.pdf (211.1 KB)
Premier Explosives.pdf (510.8 KB)
Value Investors Mumbai Planning.xlsx (86.7 KB) This contains the checklist discussion in the 3rd tab

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Do we have any meetup scheduled for April 2017 in Mumbai?

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Hi guys,
Im looking to become a part of this group. How do I go about it as I can’t seem to find any link for an upcoming meet? Thanks.

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The next meeting is scheduled on Sunday 28th May 2017. Registration link and agenda in below link

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The May-17 monthly meeting saw a turnout of ~40 people, at the usual venue of KJ Somaiya Polytechnic. The following topics were discussed
@narender -Minda Corp-Narender discussed his thesis on Minda and the triggers around P/E rerating-loss making subsidiary turnaround, BS6 regulatory driven new sensors business etc, as also management (buying from open market only w/o preferential issues, new professionals, consolidation of business under this company). Those interested can read the QIP prospectus/company PPT for more data
@mailtopawangiri Investment approach. Pawan presented on the factors which had helped him achieve ~30% CAGR for the last 6yrs
@SinghiGirish Max India Girish presented the Max India story as earnings depressed from new hospitals (thus skewing the comparison to Apollo/Fortis) as also potential upside from diagnostics. The topic saw discussions on business models(hospital vs hotels), ethics of hospitals and factors affecting EV/bed(extent of tertiary, single speciality vs multi speciality etc). His DCF however indicates it is more than fairly valued, w/o considering the above upsides.
@varunsr --Bajaj Holdings-Varun presented the holding company theme as a long term holding story for his newborn niece. The style was good and the stock has a 60% discount, however in the 5yr period 2012-17, it has appreciated just 8% vs underlying stocks appreciating more. Which brings us to the story, will the discount ever reduce? Even with a ~40%-50% dividend payout, the stock is still volatile.
@kitamr Brief commentary on RERA Act and implications for real estate sector. The slightly contrarian view that with competition reducing from small builders, and compliance costs/efforts increasing, biggies will be able to take up prices. The topic saw active discussions/inputs from all

Next Steps

  1. Please update the investment checklist 2nd tab is for collaborative checklist.
    -Link Value Investors Mumbai Planning - Google Sheets
  2. Those seeking to volunteer please add your details in 1st tab of above sheet
  3. Those interested in being informed about future events by email, please sign up on the link below https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/valueinvestormumbai Requests on this thread with contact details will NOT be entertained

As usual, all PPTs posted under the express understanding it does not constitute investment advice
RERA .docx.docx (149.2 KB)
Investment Approach.pdf (280.6 KB)
Max India (1).pdf (900.1 KB)
minda corp- may 2017.pdf (1.4 MB)
Bajaj Holdings-circ.pdf (692.4 KB)

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How to get added here?

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This thread is not being tracked. Please do not post numbers here. Kindly read the posts above and send a Whats App on the numbers mentioned above in @andy161161’s post.

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I am reading this a year after it was posted. Have joined VP only this year. I would like to thank all of you for the presentations and for making them available for us to read. As a novice, I found the presentations very well done and extremely helpful. Thank you once again

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When’s the next meetup? I definitely want to attend the next meetup happening in Mumbai. I’m currently Btech undergrad CSE student. And I’ve been investing into stocks since last three years. I’d love to learn from the offline meet up happening anywhere in Mumbai.

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Yes, next meet details please.

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Thanks for the interest in it…however we have taken a hiatus from larger scale meetups until we have sufficient adequate quality content. Please join the google groups where you will get notifications of the events once announced

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The monthly meets are intended to be interactive rather than '‘Sage from the stage’, and for people to apply their mind and learnings. However, this is not evident from the last few meetings. hence, future meetups will be restricted to the following category only in order of preference.

  1. Those who share their knowledge online actively(>1/2 per month)-evidence can be Valuepickr top contributor status, link to blog or forum contribution

  2. Those attending previous meetups and actively participating-you know whom you are.ping me if any doubt.

  3. Those engaged in buy side/sell side as professionals/full time/SEBI analyst.

  4. Any others

Folks in category 1 please indicate this during the signup link to be circulated later. Others viz those in categories #2-4 are expected to email me on andy161161 at gmail dot com a 1 page writeup outlining your investment activity in the last 1yr in respect of
-Stocks entered or exited with brief reason
-Stocks analyzed but rejected-with reasons why
-Key investment learnings
Please note, if you attend, you may be expected to discuss your note. Please also include in the note-a very brief introduction about yourself.

Registration to the next meetup will be limited to those in category 1 and those who submit the writeup by Saturday 16th Sep 2017

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Next meetup on Oct 8, 2017 (Sunday 2pm). Register below

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The presentations/meeting report of the meetup held on 10 Oct 2017 at KJ Somaiya, Vidyavihar, Mumbai. Presentations to be uploaded when received from participants with appropriate edits

@prashant presented his approach towards portfolio construction addressing some practical issues from his experience.This was later complemented by the sessions of @Yogesh_s and @sukhlani
@dhruv presented an update on Intrasoft, which was presented by him in Jan17. The audience being totally new almost, some time was lost in again explaining the stock though. However, Dhruv explained his present/revised views on the stock.

@jamit05 shared his investment approach on market timing the Nifty-50 to achieve alpha. However,the seemingly simplistic model was critiqued by participants who felt that Nifty50 is efficient, that P/E ratio too simple etc. We await a more detailed thread on this topic.

@bkasal shared his views on Zydus Cadila centred around his scuttlebutt and market observations. The subsequent discussion analyzed its zig-zag results(not showing secular demand trends inherent from lifestyle disease product like Sugar Free), relevance of parent’s R&D/Pharma distribution for FMCG product like Nutralite and seeming inability to achieve market penetration. Zydus Wellness - Balaji Kasal (1).pdf (505.0 KB)

@anshuljain791 shared his investment thesis on Gujarat Ambuja, centred around its maize processing business. The discussion that transpired analyzed the capital allocation(50crs to marginal textile business), puzzle of constant profit margins in a cyclical industry, and the wisdom of adding capacity in an industry with surplus capacity and the triggers of capex, FSSAI approval for SCFS. However, their history of debt free growth, self funded capex and buybacks, demonstrates their ability as capital compounders

@andy161161 shared his views on how to/importance of reading annual reports. IND-AS PPT fpr VP.docx (459.0 KB)

Shekhar(@sukhlani shared his experience of attending “FIL with the Masters” FLAME Jul17 program takeaway (1).pdf (392.4 KB)
FLAME University | The Pioneers of Liberal Education in India and his observations/takeaways.

Yogesh Sane(@Yogesh_s) observed that considering the stocks presented in Sep16/Oct16, 4 stocks were near flat,another 2 were ±10%, 2 returned 22%-24%, while 2 returned 56%-62%, for a simple average return of 16%(annualized, equal weighting of all stocks assuming purchased on meeting date and held till this meetup date for >1yr). He said this did not outperform Nifty-50 significantly which gave 12% pa. He then gave his views/experience on the Goa Chintan Baithak meetup(PPTs available here Accelerated Learning - ValuePickr Forum). One key takeaway was that many members have not seen a bear market(especially that of 2008-09) and thus buy right sit tight worked. But now, valuation risk is real(eg pharma correcting 30% YTD 2017) and should be seen.

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Hello All,

Thanks for being an audience for a quick 10 mins.

Pertinent questions were asked, which need addressing:

  1. Shekhar asked whether PE is the only criteria for buying
  2. Dhruv asked whether at Nifty PE>25, one would not act at all.
  3. I was also asked whether one is fine with returns of 15% to 20%.
  4. Also, when to exit was a point of interest.

I am somewhat convinced that if I started a thread, then I’d address these questions graphically, and invite a fresh round of questions.

Core idea is to ensure capital safety for amateur investors and get respectable returns.