@StageInvesting In my experience with technical, never buy 10-15 days before result update.
Loss in expected profits is always better than seeing stop losses getting triggered
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Sharda Motors
CMP 1583
We’re big fan of @phreakv6 . Tried to do wave count on Sharda Motors as he has posted about it few months back.
Here is the long term chart , Keep in consideration that monthly charts take months to play out.
Disclaimer : Views are personal. No buy/sell recommendations. The projection is based on our technical -probability study methods and chances of success/failure depend upon various factors.
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Hello Stage !
are we into “side-way” situation or deep correction has started ?..All my darts were spot on till now.
…“abhi ankh pe andhere chha gaye he, bhage ya ruke…bhage to konsi aur bhage”
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Stock Picking Challenge in current state of the markets
Pocket 1 Buying stocks at reasonable valuations but with no momentum !
Pocket 2 Buying stocks-in -momentum but where valuations are reasonable !
Pocket 3- Buying stocks- in- momentum but at expensive valuations!
Challenge lies in the fact that there are very rare opportunities in Pocket 2 but ample opportunities in Pocket 3.
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Stage! I’ve got a layman’s query because my simple brain can only handle simple patterns.
If
is the only pocket left for momentum, does that mean one shall only take shorter time bets?
Just asking before I make short-term bets and run away faster than a student after an exam 
!
Known -Unknown Vs. Unknown- Unknown
Known- Unknown are the events where you know about the forthcoming event ( most of the times ) but you are uncertain about the outcome i.e. Budget / Elections /Small scams / Interest rate changes .
Markets generally correct 8-10% and then start the previous trend .
These kind of events are regular ( happen every 1-3 years )
Unknown-Unknown Where events are not predictable, they are sudden ,you’re neither aware about the forthcoming event nor its outcome .i.e. Covid / sudden wars / big scams .
Markets may fall 30-40% and future trend may be different than the previous trend .
These kind of events happen every 8-10 years e.g. early 90s/ 2008 / 2020
Common people are unable to make this distinction and they tend to remember unknown - unknown events more as fall is greater & serious wealth destruction happens - that’s why they are not able to commit big money in the markets .
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@StageInvesting , So how to overcome this bias? And how to muster courage and conviction to deploy more funds?? What mental model or thinking pattern we should adopt to both types, known-unknown and unknown-unknown?
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It is just like coming out of home every day. You can have a serious accident any day ! But you don’t stop going on the road because historical data suggests that these are not everyday events.
You put on a stop-loss (i.e. seat belt ) ,avoid rash driving and keep a close eye on the road.
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Our Portfolio ( recent additions) as on today:
- Vatech Wabag
- Welspun Enterprise
- Garware HiTech
- Indus Towers
- Wockhardt
- Axis Bank
- Ashok Leyland
- Sharda Motors
- Bharat Dynemics
- PGEL
- GMR Infra
- GICRE
- Gujarat Gas
- Green Ply
- Repco Home
Would share the charts on this weekend.
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GMR infra could face temporary backlash because of the Delhi airport incident. I think Terminal 1 was inaugurated in May and the roof already collapsed and they are citing rains as the reason, doesn’t bode well.
Wockhardt CMP 686
Going as per the projection given in Dec 2023
Newsflow is also positive
ps://www.financialexpress.com/business/healthcare-wockhardt-claims-breakthrough-in-cancer-treatment-httwith-experimental-drug-zaynich-us-body-awards-highest-susceptibility-to-the-antibiotic-3537791/
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Compounding & Markets
Everyone is so baffled about the rise & rise of the Indian markets .
We have not seen any big correction over last four years that was a common phenomenon in the past .
To understand that , we need to understand the concept of compounding .
Linear math is very intuitive- if you ask someone what is 8+8+8+8 , you would get an immediate answer . But if you ask someone to calculate 8X8x8x8, it is not so easy. Understanding compounding is so unintuitive.
Compounding is taught in schools and people know it ,it is so obvious but comprehension of its magnitude is incomprehensible for the most.
Hope, by now ,you know that the Indian markets are also being driven by compounding of SIPs in MFs . That has been the big change in last 4 years.
It is so obvious yet the magnitude of it is incomprehensible for the most .
And keep in mind that it looks like it is still at a beginning stage , may be at 8x8 level but it is nowhere near 8x8x8x8 ….
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In a bull market like these, sometimes you just ride using some moving average ( in this case 9 months moving average) , because waves keep extending.
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Perspective!
If you have a 1 crore networth & you put 10 lacs (10% ) in stock- markets , it is easier to make 100% CAGR .
On the other hand , if you have 1 crore and you put 90 lacs (90% ) in the stock- market, it is a very different ball-game .
Your whole view on how you see the market changes (risk taking , understanding of sectors/ companies, the way you look at life etc. )
You may not be able to make 100% CAGR but in the long run , you would be far-far ahead of the guy who was making 100% CAGR on 10% of his networth .
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You mean, you become cautious, and focus on risk management. You dont buy without consulting fundamentals, most money is put in safe, large cap etc.
But then how you explain momentum investing , specially only price based momentum? How people invest in that, inspite of investing 90% of their networth, without consulting fundamentals
Hi Stage!
Thanks for the educational posts, you were right on, bang again! Pokarna is already up 50% at ~800.Did you sprinkle any magic dust on it? 
Waiting for Repcohome to show some moves !
Maybe I’m trying to be a loud mouth being a newbie, but your point on investing 1 crore, i can relate to few !
The first thing people do (some I know personally) is stop taking risks.don’t make a selling strategy, go into a buy-and-forget mode, compares returns with MFs. Basically, the capital-protecting instinct takes over. 
May be this is more related to behavioural/ pyschological or risk taking natures of individuals ?
Where is this nifty thingy heading?
I’ve been buying and selling based on nifty targets. Till now, I’ve had 24k in my mind… last week, it felt like something was amiss… but this week, mid/small/micro caps started their dope moves again. Now it seems 25k is inevitable within the ongoing month… or is this just the July magic?
How can one build ideal or fair “run” strategy, When should we run for the hills?
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Hi Sir
Plz share chart whenever possible. Also, is the list of companies sorted based on any parameter?
Thanks
They say ’ bhagwaan ke ghar mein ,der hai ,andher nahin’ …i.e. right things would happen but they may take soemtime.
It is different for different people…for example we always put 90% of our networth in the markets …and we realised that the following 3 key things we do repeatedly :
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We do take risks but our risks are very calculated risks. So not only we deep dive into fundamentals but we learnt technical analysis also to improvise our entry & exit strategies…
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Other thing we do is to get into momentum stocks …but we see momentum over 6 months to 12 months and that too in strong fundamental companies … the guys who invest only 10% their networth may not be that serious .
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We read a lot.
We don’t follow Index that much, we’re more focused on individual stocks. In the past, we used to do lot of study on Index , but later on we realised that as an investor , it is just a distraction, ROE ( return on efforts) is not so great. ( for a trader , following index may make sense)
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Randomness - Skilled Vs Less Skilled , Wealthy vs. Rich
Why some people who’re not so skilled or hardworking become richer ( or more successful) than the people who’re more skilled and hardworking than them !
Here’s something to think about :
To be successful , one requires 3 things :
- Timing
- Skill
- Aggressiveness/ Risk - taking (size of the bet )
So here comes the randomness !
Few people ,who’re less skilled, happen to be aggressive ( risk- takers ) at an appropriate time !
And they happen to earn more than the people who’re more skilled but could not become aggressive at a right time !
Having Wealth Vs Being Rich
Randomness can make someone rich but to be wealthy one has to be skillful too* Being wealthy is the result of being aggressive time-to-time - repeating the same over several times throughout the life .
Wealthy Vs Rich - Difference !
Being rich is that you can have lifestyle or top 1% of world’s population! Being wealthy means that your 7 generations can have world’s top 1% lifestyle without doing anything( condition is that they should not involve too much in 3 Ls -Leverage/Liquor/Ladies)
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