StageInvesting +Elliot Waves

Already shared few days back.

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Hello Stage !. I am back, too quickly though ! :monkey:
This time for a follow up of few previous posts.

For below names do you think it is of any meaning to analyse their stages at this juncture ?

CMP ~1000, consider January split, its up 2.5X.

CMP ~885, up 2X.

CMP ~725, up 1.2X.

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If I were you. I would remain invested in all these names - would check quarterly results to check the progress of the business. If growth keeps coming, why to exit!

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Silver -CMP 30.5 (US$/OZ) , INR 92000/Kg.

Can silver go to $ 42 (INR 125,000) in short term and to $ 56 (INR 150,000) in medium to long term ( in 2025/2026) !

If that happens, it would be breaking its 2011 all time high price ( international US$/OZ)

With rising inflation, falling dollar and tense geopolitical situation - there’s a probability.

Let’s keep a watch. No buy /sell recommendation.

Monthly chart with probable EW count !

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Risk Management !

Sound risk management is not about avoiding the risk .

Risk- avoidance means returns-avoidance!

If you want to make money , you have to take risk .

But you can’t make money by just taking risks !

You have to do it skillfully.

There has to be a process that should have following 4 elements :

  1. Risk that you’re aware of !

  2. Risk you can analyse

  3. Risk you can diversify

  4. And risk for which you’re highly rewarded to take

If these 4 necessities are satisfied , then there’re higher chances that you would get some positive outcome by taking risk .

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Sharda Corp- follow-up

CMP :2925. long way to go.

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Hi Stage,

I wish to enquire about PGEL – is it at stage 3?

It’s up 1X in ~2 months. How much steam do you think it might have left?

Don’t you think everything is running too fast, or is this how it should be once the stages are identified correctly?

If you have patience, anything is possible.

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A stock closing at ATH is definitely not in Stage 3

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Long Way To Go

In the past bull runs , Sensex has gone 5 X (90-94) to 8X (2002-2008).

In current bull run , if we count from Covid lows , we’re hardly 3.5 X but if we count from Feb 2020 , we’re only 2 X .

So a long way to go if we go by history .( it might not repeat but it may rhyme )

Yes , no movement is in straight line .

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DXY Breaking Down

A classic Head & Shoulders pattern on DXY …if it works out …it is bullish for Gold/Silver and Emerging Markets (EMs) Equities (including India)

Let’s wait and see how it plays !

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Some of the good setups , we are looking at wrt technical prespective:

  1. Mazda -1557
  2. HBL Power-572
  3. Triveni Engg.
  4. Genesys-676
  5. KSL-1024
  6. SWAN Energy -718
  7. Hariom -625
  8. HSCL -420

No buy/sell recommendation.

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