Hi,
Thank you for bringing the second part(Personal Care) into my knowledge.I didn’t thought about it.
Thanks,
Deb
Its past mid night and I am awake. Reading and trying to interpret all the news around.
-
Completly agree with Sujay on Colgate Palmolive.
-
A MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE - THE NUMBER OF CORONA CASES AND DEATHS IN EUROPE AND US ARE SUGRGING. But both the central banks- Fed and ECB have now come out in the open to print money. The gloves are off now.
Real value of money is gona go to dogs. This is a natural floor for stocks. The markets across Europe and US are reflecting this.
I guess we have seen the worst for atleast the consumption and pharma stocks.
I am placing buy orders for tomorrow morning at prices higher than CMP.
Placing orders for-
Proctor and Gamble Health
Proctor and Gamble Health and Hygiene
Colgate Palmolive
Jyothy Labratories
Fingers crossed!!!
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
2 Likes
Hi,
Now FMCG companies scaling down operations and some even going for shutter down.
Thanks,
Deb
1 Like
Hi…Sujay
One of my friends told me about a post by you on some other thread, some days back in which u had mentioned that Pampers is not a part of P&G health and hygiene India’s listed arm.
Is this true ???
Any more comments on this particular issue or on P&G India in general.
Rehards,
Ranvir Dehal
Yes,
Via Motilal Oswal’s initiating Coverage report
In P&G Hygiene, I’m confident about the Sanitary Napkin business but not sure about Vicks & Old Spice.
The problem with P&G India’s different listed businesses is that there are uncomfortable overlaps between them, so the Parent maybe willing to tame aggression in some to avoid cannibalization.
For example, Old Spice in P&G Hygiene & Gillette in Gillette India are both male grooming brands, and so P&G can’t go all out to expand these two brands. AFAIK, Old Spice is now present in After Shave & Deodorant & Perfume section and Gillette in other male grooming sections. This essentially reduces the applicable market size of both.
P&G Health contains different OTC medication brands. Also, Vicks in P&G Hygiene and Healthcare contains OTC pain relief medications.
Ideally, P&G India should’ve kept Pampers & Whisper under P&G Hygiene and Healthcare; Merge Vicks with P&G health; and Merge Old Spice & Gillette under Gillette India. Or best, keep P&G Health, Vicks, Pampers & Whisper under the Hygene & Healthcare arm.
Given P&G’s reputation, I’m not sure whether they’ll launch any further products under P&G Health! Currently I’m unsure if P&G Health has a large enough market size.
IMHO, investment rationale behind P&G’s listed arms is their strong brand equity & quality and the hope that they will eventually take every product to every corners of India. I, personally, invest in a FMCG company because they can scale their portfolio to any size by launching or acquiring new brands and extending existing brands, something that HUL and Indian FMCG majors does always, and something I can’t expect from P&G. So, despite getting attracted by their brand strength all the times, I’ve so far refrained from investing in any of their listed arms.
5 Likes
U r right.
My plunge into P & G…was probably a mistake.
Would rectify it…ASAP.
Thanks.
Hi,
I find it slightly odd that you never mentioned ITC in the whole thread, while you seem to be quite positive on most major FMCG players. Any particular reason you do not consider ITC?
Thanks,
Ratul
1 Like
My personal views on the Mkts and the corona situation-
- We have seen the bottom for necessary ( non- discretionary ) consumption stocks atleast.
- Say 1750 on HUL, 390 on dabur, 430 on GCPL etc etc etc.
- Mkt as a whole has HOPEFULLY bottomed out provided there is no community spread in India which…as of now, is not happening. The Corona saga in India started on say…03 March. Its been 23 days. Its not a steep parabola. In fact, its preety shallow by all accounts when u compare it to US, Europe, Iran etc.
- Mkt may fall further if we see a community spread in India. Otherwise, 7000-7500 on Nifty should be difficult to crack.
- If there is community spread, 6000 on the Nifty cant be ruled out.
- Normal, run of the mill corrections in the Mkts…should happen.
I reserve the right to be wrong. He He.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
2 Likes
Hi…
With every passing day, evidence ( scientific or anecdotal ) is mounting that India is only seeing a cluster spread of Corona.
The evidence of community spread is - non existent.
I have a strong feeling that even the cluster spread may peak by say 15th April or so. Then a steady deline towards the end of April.
Extension of Lockdown, some more direct benifit transfers can not be ruled out.
Stocks may start reacting anytime soon…say 10 April onwards.
Fingers crossed.
Hoping for the Best !!!
Disc: I reserve the right to be wrong.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
1 Like
Current Composition of portfolio-
HUL
NESTLE
DABUR INDIA
GCPL
COLGATE PALMOLIVE
PROCTER AND GAMBLE HEALTH
BRITANNIA
MARICO
JYOTHY LABRATORIES
If the community spread doesnt happen ( as has been the case across the Hot and Humid countries ) and the Mkt falls some more ( say…a 5 pc correction ), will add to existing positions.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
2 Likes
Any reason you are not buying Bajaj consumer?
Hi Ranvir,
No doubt the stocks you have chosen are of good quality and they are most likely to withstand the current humanitarian crisis.
But I have some counter points to make here
1-> ALL stocks are from FMCG. So 100% of your portfolio is into one sector only which goes against the most general belief of investment(thumb rule)
2-> Most of the smart investors money are hiding in FMCG sector now(Pharma Also).So it might not go down more but when the situation improves the sector will not fire more.As the parked money will move out to the high beta sectors.
Thanks,
Deb
2 Likes
Point No 1…
Well…in my opinion, branding FMCG as one industry is a myth. A huge myth.
Eg- how are the dynamics of Tea related to Detergent, or Mosquito repellent vs Chavanprash, or Honey vs Toothpaste, or hair Oil vs Pudin Hara, or Ketchup vs Soap, or Noodles vs Baby Milk powder etc etc etc.
Just because they are all sold at a grocery shop doesnt mean that their dynamics are inter-related.
Therefore…Its fair to assume that a basket of FMCG stocks already make u diversified.
Point no 2-
After the crisis is over, people would have realised that HUL / Nestle are safer than an FD. People would have seen a 3rd world war equivalent situation ( or worse ) and seen the behaviour of FMCG stocks.
So when global bond yeilds go to zero ( like they are today ), what will stop ( atleast theoretically ) HUL from commanding a 100 PE. Foreign pension funds will jack them up. I have little doubt.
We need to think about this.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
6 Likes
Hi…@slownsteady
Bajaj Consumer is practically a single product company ( over 90 pc of sale from Almond drops hair Oil ) with tons of competition from Marico, Dabur and Emami. They are finding it difficult to grow.
Thats the sole reason.
3 Likes
Excellent thought and resonates with me. Why is a Tata consumer missing?
Some more rays of Hope.
If u r short on time, watch from 4 min…onwards. Else, watch the whole video.
It seems…we ll get around the Virus.
Finger crossed!!!
Regards
Ranvir Dehal
1 Like
In brief…
- Yes…I did ponder over Tata Consumer.
Infact, I was close to initiating a postn on it.
And then, it ran up from 225 to 285.
So…couldnt catch it.
- Was a little concerned about their Starbucks Ops in India for obvious reasons. But I think ( a rough estimate ) that the setbacks there will be made up by soaring sales of Tata Sampan range of eatables.
But yes, its on the radar.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
2 Likes
Top Indian Immunoligist…Dr Gobardhan Das…out with a detailed paper today.
BCG vaccine effectiveness vs Covid-19
Australia , Belgium, Netherlands…out with similar papers.
Countries where BCG was not mandatory-
US
Spain
Italy
Belgium
Neterlands
Iran- made compulsary after 1984
China- Skipped BCG for 10 Yrs during cultural revolution under Mao.
These countries have one thing in common- highest death rates.
BCG…in all likelyhood boosts immunity against COVID-19.
Effects taper with age…obviously.
Oldies- can get a refresher shot.
No wonder … kids ( fresh with BCG )…were not dying!!!
We may be out of this shit sooner than we think.
Fingers crossed !!!
7 Likes
Can you pl share a copy of the paper.
Just to add few observations from worldometer data on covid .If you see the countries most affected and having high fresh cases/death per day,it can be seen that all these countries still had a much lower temperature when it started and spread. In India ,it came with a lag ,by that time, the temperature had gone up.
As far as BCG is concerned, these vaccinations have become popular or mandatory in the last 2-3 decades only in metro cities. In remote areas/villages, people are still not having proper or complete vaccination. Even people of age 50 or more currently hardly had any vaccination at the time of their birth as healthcare was neither prevalent /accessible nor viable for most of the population.
One more report says that mutation of the virus to human in India is different than in the countries like Italy/spain etc as it has a smaller area to attach to human beings making the possibility much lower. Therefore the temperature and the smaller attachment area could be the 2 reasons for it’s not spreading to community despite our high density country.
Let us hope it’s true