Hi…@yudiadd
Its avlb on twitter handles…Gobardhan Das and Anandrangnathan72…as of yesterday night.
Havent checked in the morning.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
Link : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042937v1.full.pdf , for any interested.
As of now the paper seems to be not peer reviewed.
Correlation does not mean causation.
To be draw this conclusion, we need to figure out the infection rates among a populace with a study group who have received BCG vaccine and one who not controlled group. ** Given all the other conditions remains same **
To be little, tongue in cheek, may be not as sophisticated in paper, I can simply say, studies suggest that Norther Hemisphere people are more likely get infected than souther hemisphere.
Also may be this looks better where there is some talk about starting the trial ; https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/can-century-old-tb-vaccine-steel-immune-system-against-new-coronavirus
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Only a final few shots are left in my armoury.
Studied UPL over the last 1-2 days.
Planning to take a plunge tomorrow.
I think the stock has been beaten black and blue purely because of the debt on their books which they piled on due- acquisition of Arysta. Intergation was however complete in most respects by Dec 19.
The Dec 19 results …were quite encouraging.
If they dont pay dividends, they can knock off most of the debt in 3-4 yrs.
With dividends…say 6 yrs.
In any case, Debt is likely to reduce substantially with every passing year.
If there was no Chinese Virus, the stock…in all probability would have flown.
An assumption-
In the lockdown situtaion- in India and West, agri-inputs would still be selling.
Thats an added cushion.
Rehards,
Ranvir Dehal
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10 grams of gold will always be overvalued when compared to 10 grams of iron. So one shouldn’t ever buy gold?
Imo, value of a business depends on not only it’s cashflow but it’s stability and longevity (which is a function of moats, management, capital allocation etc)
Earnings and all the above factors mentioned should be the major criteria when buying a company and not it’s price I believe. Because if a company is consistently chugging out earning, the price is bound to go up to match thee earnings.
The firing of any stock will depend on if it generates earnings to back the prices discounted or surpass those discounted prices which will lead the price to rise more and meet the earning and then again discount furthur. The cycle goes on.
That will be the biggest factor not if many peooy are buying it today and tomorrow if they will or not.
It won’t be so easy.
Hi…
I ve started trimming my FMCG only portfolio. They really helped me save the blushes.
I feel the risk reward now doesnt favour holding them anymore.
Have started buying Aaarti Industries and UPL in small quantities.
Will buy more on meaningful corrections.
Will also buy back fmcg shares on corrections.
If no corrections happen , well…just too bad.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
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Hi…
Two more stocks that I am planning to enter are Alkem Labratories and Ajanta Pharma.
Anyone with any views on these stocks…feel free to share.
Would love to hear from u guys.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
I can tell a bit about Ajanta. They have resumed their growth from the last couple of quarters because of rapid expansion in US market. Management has guided for a 25% CAGR growth in sales in US markets until FY22. There are two key risk items that you should be aware of:
- Their top 10 products in US contribute ~70% of their revenue
- Their Dahej facility account for 80% of their ANDA filings.
Any adverse action on the above two points can dent prospects for US growth.
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If I remember you sold property to buy these very FMCG shares few week back. I have hardly seen you venturing out of FMCG. Guess earlier you were into automobiles also. Now suddenly you seem to enter pharma, chemicals…what most of so called seniors here advocate… Pls do think exactly why you doing this change and how strong is your own conviction and ability to add these more if any major fall.
Would you sell a property and buy aarti or alkem the way you bought hul or Marico? If answer is no, I would really think twice if these multibaggers are for me or “seniors” who sold their portfolio to buy next leaders…
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Yes…ur absolutely right.
The fact that I had the gumption to sell property to buy the FMCG stocks was because of high to very high conviction levels, depending on stock to stock.
I trimmed my portfolio in the last 2-3 days after making some descent gains.
I felt ( I may be wrong, only time will tell ) that most of my holdings have run their course…atleast for the time being.
I rightly or wrongly anticipate the Mkts to fall from current levels. Now, I also have a feeling that the FMCG stocks that I trimmed… may not correct by much.
If they do, I will happily buy them back…without thinking twice. If they dont…I am just preparing a list of second choices.
My allocation in these stocks is not gonna be anywhere close to what it was in FMCG businesses…for the lack of deep understanding. So, I intend to follow a basket approach and will buy in far smaller quantities with every dip vs the FMCG stocks.
Like a basket of descent stocks…Ajanta Pharma, Alkem Labs, UPL, Aarti Industries and I am trying to identify a few more.
Under normal circumstances, I would probably have never resorted to this course of action. I generally, dont like to keep cash. I am generally 100 percent in. And I am generally quite bullish.
This time around, there was a genuine feeling of fear. I never had this feeling during the 2008 crash. But this time around, it was actually there…I must admit. Therefore…the rush to book gains and have some cash.
But…ur words of caution are really important and very very relevant.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
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Hi…
As I had disclosed earlier about trimming my FMCG holdings last week ( last Friday actually ), I have been deploying cash in a basket of stocks.
These are -
Natco Pharma
Alembic Pharma
Alkem Labratories
Ajanta Pharma
UPL
Aarti Industries
Polymedicure
Since my degree of expertise in these stocks is very limited, hence buying small quantities for the moment. Will add more if conviction develops and there are corrections.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
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Just a thought on Jyothy Labs…
Now that MHA has ordered opening up of shops without clearing the Malls to open up, also the paranoia of people in general to not visit AC shopping places for some time to come - this may end up being a big positive for JLL which was otherwise reeling under the pressure of Private labels from the likes of Reliance Retail, Big Bazar etc.
Great time for them to sell and solidify brands like - Pril, Exo, Henko etc.
Disc- Holding a small tracking position in JLL.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
Thanks for the updates. I think this is part of staggered opening of economy which will help in normalizing the situation. However Reliance Retail, Big Bazar are still open but clearly people are afraid to enter closed spaces which will continue for some more time.
Yes…they would be open. Agree.
Its just that the share of grocery shopping, for the time being would shift towards the local Kirana stores. ( specially in tier-2,3,4 cities / towns )
And this trend is not likely to reverse till there is a vaccine to overcome the Wuhan virus.
So…JLL may see a corresponding jump in sales. Plus it has been battered rather badly. So…it may end up giving a descent bump over the next few months.
Disc: invested, small tracking postn.
A few more companies where I have / I plan to take up tracking positions include-
Cipla
NOCIL
Godrej Agrovet
Aarti Drugs
As mentioned earlier, I used to run a relatively concentrated portfolio of consumer facing business where my level of expertise / understanding was greater. In the Pharma / Agrochemicals / Speciality Chemicals space…its not as good as in say FMCG. So…planning to follow a more conventional, basket kid of approach.
Also, trying to learn about new areas, develop expertise with the help of senior VPs on the forum.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
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Disc : Bought small quantities of Cipla, NOCIL, Aarti Drugs, GAVL
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Hi…
My portfolio is in a state of Flux…primarily due to trimming of FMCG holdings ( initially a 35 pc trimmming and then another 20 pc ) over the last 10 days. I am sitting on more than 20 percent cash. I intend to deploy this cash in case the Mkts corrects from here in the companies that I aready hold. These are -
HUL
Britannia
Dabur
Colgate Palmolive
Marico
Dabur
Trimmed my holdings in all of these. Made a complete exit from Nestle at around 17000. ( I know, I may regret it later. But…given a descent correction, I wish to re-enter )
New positions ( all between 1-2 pc of portfolio ) -
Alembic Pharma
Ajanta Pharma
Alkem Labratories
Ploymedicure
Cipla
Natco Pharma
Aarti Industries
Aarti Drugs
UPL
NOCIL
Vinati Organics
Godrej Agrovet
SBI GOLD ETF
Would try and increase my holdings in most of these if mkts correct.
I am deliberately not buying any consumer discretionary / banking and finance companies as I am really unsure of the consumer sentiment and demand scenario going forward. I am also a little paranoid about the kind of NPAs that the current and future economic mess may throw up.
So…trying to play safe.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
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Now that the Mkt has started falling, I think it is my sacred duty to start deploying some cash. He He.
Bought the following today ( in small quantities ) -
HUL
Britannia
Colgate Palmolive
Dabur
UPL
Godrej Agrovet
Alkem Labs ( early morning dip )
Natco Pharma
Jyothy Labratories
Intend to keep buying more on the way down ( which to me is a likely scenario ).
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
3 Likes