The situation is complex because of Corona. Once the Corona issue subsides, we might have a clear picture whether this is gonna be a bear market or not. But i feel we might get more opportunities over the next couple of months to see some dips in the market. This is gonna be an excellent opportunity for long term investors to get their favourite stocks at good valuations. Markets might touch 11k levels after corona. But any upside after that will purely depend on economy bouncing back.
Disc:
Looking at the closures / partial closures in industries like Aviation, Hotels, Malls, Restaurants, Exports to Europe etcā¦I am really scared about the NPA situation of our Banks.
On the other hand, I am a pure equity guy. I believe in long term future of the world and hence the Stocks. This is the best asset class.
Hence sold my holdings of HDFC bank and Indusind Bank at CMP.
( Indusindā¦at a huge loss )
Converted to Dabur, HUL, Nestle and Britannia at CMP.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
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@ranvirwhat you are doing, m doing the same but to FMCG n Healthcare as I feel roti , dawa would be first priority even in distress n now these 2 are almost 65% of my portfolio. Any reason why you have not looked at healthcare on same thesis ?
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Although FMCG has always been my biggest holding sector and I am a buyer in recent falls, what actually is happening in FMCG is severe de ratingā¦all know FMCG is bread and butter but they not willing to pay 40 times and above anymore, baring couple names hul and nestle. Baja consumer and jyothy are at commodity valuationsā¦I think bajaj pe is sub 10 now just like a oil commodity company. Leading Indian FMCG crashed from 50 pe to 25 nowā¦a rerating happened for Tata global due to its restructuring while dabur somehow managed a 45 pe as well diversifiedā¦
Big question, growth will come gradually but will multiple come back to 40 plus?
Thanks
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Hiā¦
U r right .
I didnāt buy any Pharma shares because I havenāt studied them in any great detail. ( plus the previous USFDA related bruising )
Today was a panic switch.
Although I intend to remain fully invested and buy more on further dips below 8500, I also wanted to buy some mental peace.
With Airlines, Hospitality, Tourism, Transport companies, Restaurants, Malls etc etc etcā¦and their employees in distressā¦I was not comfortable holding any bank.
It was literally giving me some serious headache.
Thatās why I didā¦what I did.
Only time will tell weather I did something wise or otherwise.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
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Hiā¦
Even in FMCG there are companies not doing well like - Emami, Bajaj Corpā¦due growth stagnation. ( even before the Corona scare )
Others like HUL, Nestle, Dabur, Britanniaā¦have been resilient.
GCPL, Marico, JLL have head winds. But to my mind, their problems are solvable in an year or so.
PE compression and earnings de-growth may happen for all if the crisis intensifies. That may mean another 10-15-20 pc hit.
But all of them would survive, or at least the last ones to go down under.
Another option is to sell everything and go home.
But that would be like betting against our own jobs. Literally.
Andā¦I am hopeful that the fiasco would be over in some time.
Thatās the thought process that I am following.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
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I just read the complete thread and gained some insight.
Generally, In my view the sale for GCPL , HUL and PnG - esp the soap and sanitizer division will shoot through the roof.Lets say for a population of 1000 if 200 were regular sanitizer and soap users (for hygiene), this time the number will go up to may be 700ā¦just a rough ideaā¦so they are covering the the sale slowdown if any from other section for the march qā¦But more importantly these 700 will not just drop to 200 again next month even if corona hurricane is goneā¦200 will still be 400 till year endā¦and if you see the stock - they are bleeding -
GCPL - 500 at a forwrd earning of 24.Of course its not a value buy etc. but if the market sentiments remains down for next few months it can give us a chance to buy small quantity for next couple of months( of course if you have gun powder). I have not checked the other details like sales breakup , margin etc. but this is just a general view.
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The extent of correction in Financials is frightening. Bandhan Bank and IndusInd Bank are bleeding ~30% down today. Good that you moved out. I believe you will get far better entry points after the mayhem gets over.
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Came across these studies.
Good reads.
FINGERS CROSSED
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Hi,
The positive cases touching 400 by now.
Itās almost April now.by this time in INDIA the summer would have already started .But this year I donāt know why the summer is getting delayed and we are having intermittent rains which is keeping the environment a bit colder than normal.
Thanks,
Deb
There are some researchers who have already commented that rise in temperature may not necessitate for the containment of Corona Virus.
I dont agree to your point that summer is delayed most of the major cities like Bangalore,Hyderabad, Delhi and Mumbai have temperature of 31 to 33 degree celsius.We are just entering into summer and we have decent temperature raise!
Italy had roughly 30 corona cases on 21-22 Feb. Fast Fwd 18 days, they had 6000 cases on 10 Mar.
Wuhan, Spain, US, UK, Iran,France, Germany followed a similar trajectory.
Strikingly similar trajectory.
All worst areas are in the same temprature band-0 to 15 degee celsius.
India had aprox 30 cases on 05 Mar. Fast Fwd 18 days, we have 490 cases.
Our trajectory is shallow. Substantially so,
Probable causes - Hot Weather, Higher Relative Humidity, Greater avg daily Sun time.
Fingers crossed.
Jai Shree Ram !!!
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Disc: Have managed to monetise some Real Estate. ( non - essential)ā¦Oh, I Love my Father !!!
Bought - HUL, GCPL, Marico, Dabur, Britannia, Jyothy Labs, Colgate Palmoliveā¦ on 23 Mar.
I think I ll buy some more of these on the way down.
I am making a list of stocks to be bought on the way up. Not finalised yet.
Regards,
Ranvir Dehal
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People keep saying - there is no concrete evidence that hot and humid conditions do not reduce the velocity of spread of Corona Virus.
Doctors across Europe kept saying for centuries that washing hands before eating doesnt help. There is no evidence.
And one fine dayā¦they discovered BACTERIA !!!
Similar things wrt use of copper for storing water, until one day USFDA stamped it - live of virus on copper surfaces is aprox 1/10 vs in Stainless Steel, Plastic.
LACK OF EVIDENCE DOESNT MEAN ABSENCE OF EVIDENCE !!!
ITS LIKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DAY AND NIGHT.
INDIA FIGHTS CORONA
FINGERS CROSSED
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Few counter views.
Kerala is very hot. 33-37 degree for the last one month. Infections as of today - 100 including few got through contacts. So people got Corona from the soil of Kerala. The rate is less or not, only time will tell as the state had lot of controls in place and was very serious in handling from the start.
Another reason for less report could be lack of testing. Only those who had travel history or close association with them only tested until 21st. From 22nd, many are unable to visit hospitals due to transport, so we will never know.
From personal experience , we suspected symptoms after a visit to another big tertiary hospital and tried to test as my wife is a health worker dealing with patients in a tertiary care centre. Her sample collected but not tested citing ICMR guidelines of testing only those who have travel history or their close associates. She was not falling in to that. So we will never know.
We will know for sure by March 31st, 10 days after strict restrictions.
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Now compare the population of Kerala vs Spain / Italy.
Then compare the number of cases.
Then, compare the velocity of spread in Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Phillipines vs Spain, Italy, Belgium, US etc etc etc.
Thenā¦we can have some idea of velocity of corona spread.
Thats the limited point.
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Hi Ranvir,
Yes I also read somewhere that on copper surface this virus does not live or spread.
Our tradition,culture have given us so many things to follow which gives us a healthy life style. But unfortunately people in India now wait for the authenticity from western world for those methods.I am sorry to say current medical science is so fragile just one virus is bending it to the knees.
We should not neglect our culture and tradition and good pratlctises in the name of not being approved by modern science.
Thanks,
Deb
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Hi Ranvir,
Please provide your rationale for buying Colgate.The current mayhem has made it cheap no doubt about it.But I dont think there would be significant growth in the revenues of Colgate.as Its major product has tough competition from Dabur,patanjali,P&G that is toothpaste.
Thanks,
Deb
Most of kerala corona case is reported from nriās returning from abroad especially from Dubai and Italyā¦so they were already infected prior arrival to kerala or while travelling in plane with infected person. secondary infection from these people reported are very minimal although they were in contact with thousands of people in kerala
@ranvir Sorry for chipping in. Let me add my perspective.
Colgate-Palmolive is present in two categories with HUGE market size: Dental Hygiene & Personal Care. However, in India it has utilized only the Colgate brand effectively so far. Only recently they have started reintroducing Palmolive products with some vigor, e.g. Body Wash, hand Wash, Sanitizer, Shower Gel etc. Globally, as well as in India, Palmolive has a strong brand recall, and you should visit their Parent Site to see the range of products they have currently.
In Colgate they have clear market leadership and they are doing the best to keep that leadership. But their potential is hidden behind Palmolive which has just started in India.
P.S. Colgateās main competitor in India is HUL (Colgate & Pepsodent). P&G is only present in Toothbrush category.
Disc. Not invested. Tracking.
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