Poly Medicure - at an inflection point!

Been researching this business and several others slowly over the last few weeks. Benefits of a bear market that you can actually take your time :slight_smile:

It is interesting to see how Poly Medicure has evolved over the last decade. It looks like it plucked a lot of the low hanging fruit in the IV Cannula business in the initial part of the decade.

*FY20 Export numbers aren’t complete as Feb/Mar numbers aren’t in yet. There is likely 15-20% growth in FY20.

It looks like Export sales makes up nearly 70% of the business and Europe in that makes up a bulk of it (> 50%?). So it is easy to see why Cannulae exports sort of mirror the fortunes of the company in terms of more than doubling sales in the first half of decade. (IV Cannula made up 45% of sales in FY '11)

In the second half of the decade, Cannulae exports have barely grown until FY19 where there was a spurt (Again reflecting in company’s topline).

One good thing though is that the Company has introduced several other products which has sort of helped it grow at faster rate than IV Cannula (50% topline growth from FY15-FY19 compared to 25% growth in Cannula Exports). This probably came from company diversifying as well as being able to penetrate the market domestically. This though is a lot of hardwork compared to the tailwind in the first half.

One thing to note is that the per unit export price seems to have stayed around Rs.5 for 10 years! Hardly any pricing power here - Its clearly a low cost advantage that we have but even a slight growth in realisations here can drive up Value a lot. This is clearly a repeat volume business with a low-cost advantage.

Am not sure how many products the company had back in FY '11 - FY '15 but the product catalog and therapy areas seem pretty wide, though most of them may be small contributors as of now.

Infusion Therapy is probably the one driving bulk of the Sales (nearly 70% of Sales) as of FY19. Blood Management, though the company has put in a lot of effort has not been able to grow to compensate for reduction in growth in IV Cannula business. Dialysis and Respiratory Care are relatively newer therapy areas which are probably yet to contribute in a big way. Blood Collection - Looks like company was selling 25 million tubes in FY10 - Not sure how this segment has grown since, especially given the growth in diagnostic business.

The latest Italy acquisition Plan1Health appears to be in complementary areas of Vascular Access in the Oncology therapy area. The site is in Italian, so if you want an English version - Try this Google translated version. It gives a fair idea of the competency and areas of business. Looking at the recent dispatch to the exchanges in Feb in terms of setting up a subsidiary in India of the same name, I think the company probably plans to manufacture Plan1Health’s products here in India for cheap and export it. I might be wrong. This may give a good foothold into the ageing European market for the company, which is a big positive if executed well.

Overall, it seems to be a reasonable bet - Price hasn’t moved anywhere in 5 years probably due to big optimism built into it in the first half of the decade. The business hasn’t done badly but definitely not done as well as it did in the first half when it had tailwinds. After that it has had to work hard at it but it has not sat back clearly. The consistent 20%+ operating margins over the entire decade shows that the company definitely has some sort of moat in its line of business. It may only be a matter of being aggressive in getting into markets and keep introducing new product lines. Since these are all low cost/high volume products probably sold via the same distribution channels to the same end users, there can probably be lot of leverage over time.

Not sure if the business had any advantages due to Covid-19. Probably the Blood sample collection, IV Cannula and the respiratory care products could have seen more demand than usual. Looks like 50% of the facilities were functioning during the lockdown as well.

Disc: Been buying around 230 levels.

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Company was facing many patent violation cases from majors like BBarun until this year. I believe most of these legal hurdles have been cleared in favor of Poly Med which is a big positive.

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Having followed this company for last several years, agree with most of your insights. Good work!

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Strong operating efficiencies
Strong operating efficiencies are driven by labour-cost advantage over global competitors and in-house tool design and research and development (R&D) facilities. Operating margin is expected at 20’23% over the medium term, supported by comfortable capacity utilisation and modernisation of existing facilities.

Adding to your point from credit rating

Disclosure-
Tracking

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Hi thanks for your note @phreakv6

The Plan1 plant which the company has incorporated in Feb this year is it the one being setup in the Mahindra SEZ at Jaipur?

Currently less than 1/3rd of operating revenue is from domestic sales. Any more details on this plant and capacity? I am still reading up but what I could make out is that the promoters want to increase their domestic sales but I am unable to gauge it objectively.

Thanks.

Rgds

disc: tracking a minor position

What is your view on the corporate governance here? @phreakv6 @ayushmit

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Hi

One of the old companies though not listed is Hindustan Syringes & Medical Devices based out of Faridabad. They are the owners of the famous DispoVan brand. Product lines of HSMD & Polymed overlap. I have not done a like to like comparison.

I was looking at the financials of HSMD to get an understanding of the revenue and margins. I looked at last 5 year data. In FY19 Polymed just overtook HSMD in terms of total revenue terms.

image

The margins for Polymed are much better I am assuming this will have some fundamental reasons such as different product lines etc. Polymed has a very extensive product suite in my opinion. HSMD has cannula, infusion sets, syringes, hypodermic needle, scalpels, blood collection equipment & saftey boxes.

image

Currently HSMD has approximately 128 Crs of debt.

Rgds

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Hi Deepak, (@deevee)

Clues to Poly Medicure much higher margins are in the DNA of the business/Management - and that is extreme Efficiency focus - Costs/Production - which became clear to us after 3-4 years of yearly engagement. If you go through successive Management Q&As, and keep that DNA search focus on - it might not take you long to spot many examples.

Some from my top-of-mind recall:

  1. They successfully import-substituted the needle used in safety syringes (not sure if applicable for all syringes) a special steel-alloy after persevering with trials for 3-4 years. If I remember correctly this was at 1/4th the imported needle cost from Japan …now imagine a million syringes …

  2. Faridabad, their main factory - was notorious for power cuts. And every powercut, there would be wastage of plastic in the injection moulding machines. Not only that, to remove and clean up, and re-start it would take up to 45 minutes each time. Their efficiency focus gave them the courage/ confidence to invest in 11Cr (if I am not mistaken again) worth of power-inverters for their entire injection moulding line. It was still pretty small in annual revenues, then

  3. When I first visited them, around 2012, the assembly line had 50 people. After a couple of years, again when we visited and enquired, no of folks had shrunk to 15. And by 2016 when we last visited and enquired it was down to 3 folks!! And all this automation was homegrown (not bought outs), designed and executed by them incrementally, over the years. (remember to check they export limited numbers of some of this machinery via subsidiary?)

@ayushmit - you may like to add?

These kind of small small things about understanding a small business - key sources of growth, and key drivers of profitability develops with years of familiarity in the business. It can also come from proper reading of previous Management Q&As - but probably it needs a “framework” in the mind.

Me & Ayush are trying to capture our experience of 2010-2020 in exactly these kind of things in the Deep-Dive Mental Model thread, but through active newbie/learner participation. And encouraging everyone (including TopContributors) to take up the Deep-Dive Template practicals exercise seriously for a favourite business that you are familiar with. The 360 degree template (magically) forces us to think deeper about the business.

I see so many looking at Poly Medicure seriously again (I have a different take though). Why not attempt a deep-dive Template capture on Poly Medicure yourself, and upload it on the deep-dive thread? If you want I would love to interview you and take you through that process, and capture that for you too - so others can benefit. But you could easily do that all by yourself by downloading the blank template (handwritten one) or digital one provided by Divyansh or Vamsi, and engage in some much needed 2nd order thinking, while analysing your favourite business.

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The market is buzzing with Gilead’s drug remdesivir - the leading candidate which potentially will help cure covid-19 after some initial trials showed positive signs.

remdesivir is not a pill but has to be administered by IV. Poly Medicure has a substantial portion of revenue through IV related business. Thus, need to track this story closely.

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Please dig-in and quantify IV Canula India Sales. And other major product segment domestic Sales.

How many of these are likely tender-based Sales? Poly Med success rate at Tender Sales? Polymed IV Canula presence in Government Hospitals thru personal Scuttlebutt inputs/encouraging others to do the same. May help nail down a better picture - for quantifying potential?

Export IV Sales proportion? Track Exports?
Similarly for other key monitorables in the business

The more granular we go, the better our incremental grip on the business. And scope to bring in objectivity for assessing better.

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Hi @Donald

I am at a nascent stage in working on the company. But I will present my findings in your handwritten template format in the Deep Dive thread. Will take some time to do so though. I will also reach out to the folks who have been invested or tracking it for long.

Regards
Deepak

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Risks
My last post missed out on the risks, here are some. Am sure there are several more but these are important.

  1. There are some links to buying land from Vadra in the early part of the decade. Some promoter entities may have political links.
  2. Some of the entities classified as non-Promoter appear to be closely linked to Promoters, so they are very much Promoter entities in my opinion. This may let them freely trade their holdings without disclosures. Overall Promoter holdings have more or less remained stable.
  3. This business may be a one-hit wonder that gained greatly with IV Cannula tailwinds and may never be able to replicate that sort of growth ever again (Last 4 years are living proof for this)
  4. I don’t know how to value businesses, nor do I think market knows how to value businesses most of the time and my buying and allocation reflects this shortcoming of myself and mr.market. There is a good possibility that at 230 levels, we are overpaying and it may drop another 50% from here (Feb 2016 lows of 120) if there is a market meltdown. This is a worst case possibility one should be prepared for

With all that out of the way, let me put down my thoughts down on where I see tailwinds and early green shoots in this business. The company has very recently (plant was ready, late in FY19) got into Dialysis and has the following products in this therapy area.

Dialyzer (Haem-O-Flux) (Do click and see what one looks like, as we will be talking a lot about Dialyzers after this)
Safety AV/AV Fistula Needle
Haemodialysis Catheter
Blood Lines (Haem-O-Line)
Peritoneal Dialysis Set & Transfusion Set

Earlier the company had gotten into Blood Management System vertical - which is nothing but blood bags (All products in this vertical are here). Side Note: Looks like all their products are listed neatly on IndiaMart

There was considerable optimism, even in this thread on this Blood Management vertical but it did not perform well enough - Probably because the addressable market size for blood bags wasn’t big enough to start with (Global market size itself was only $279million). This is probably what lead to the stagnation in business between FY '15 - FY '19 when IV Cannula sales growth reduced. IV Cannula/Catheter market size appears to be around $5 billion and that explains how easy it was to grow in that area as a low cost player. Poly Medicure still only holds about 400 Cr or about 1% of this market size - So there is scope for further growth even in IV Cannula market as a low cost player, if they successfully fight the patent against B Braun on all markets, as it has done in Europe.

So how big is the Dialysis market then? This could pretty much make or break this investment thesis. Looks like Global dialysis market size is close to $100 billion -within this, the Dialyzer market (the disposable component), which is of interest to us, is about $10 billion and growing at about 5% CAGR. This means that the market size is even bigger than the IV Cannula market where the company continues to do well.

There is considerable information in the last one year from the company that their focus is very much within India for the Dialysis market. This looks to be driven by the National Dialysis Program and Ayushman Bharat - PMJAY. Check this and this

The company has openly welcomed Ayushman Bharat program in last year’s AR, as well as in several interviews given last year. It looks like the company may be one of the biggest beneficiaries going forward from the programme.

The govt. also looks to have removed duty on parts/raw materials for dialyzers while at the same increasing the duty on imported dialyzers, by adding a 5% health cess onto the 7.5% duty on medical devices - taking it up to 12.5%. So the company gets to manufacture dialyzers cheap, while the govt. reduces competitetive intensity from a market leader like Fresenius. So the govt. policies seem to be aligned towards its endgoal of treating more ESRD patients while encouraging local manufacturing.

The company seems to have had the foresight to utilize this opportunity back in 2018 - source.

Here are a couple of very useful articles analysing Dialysis market in India

The short summary of it - In our population of 1.2 billion, ESRD (End stage renal disease) patients, at an incidence rate of 0.3% would be about 37 lakhs- But only 55000 were getting Dialysis as of 2010 (Indian institute of Nephrology study).

It looks like Dialysis is repeat business, with the patient needing 3 sessions in a week, or about 156 sessions in a year and has to spend about 1000 per session minimum, taking the potential market size to 57k Cr. Assuming only 30% patients are aware and only 10% of those undergo dialysis, we get a immediate potential of Rs.1,700 Cr market size.

This obviously puts this treatment squarely out of the reach of most Indians - until PMJAY

It looks like under PMJAY, most claims are for dialysis. There were 4,55,155 claims for dialysis. Every year 2.2 lakh new patients with ESRD get added in India. So additional demand for dialysis per year = 3.4 Cr dialysis per year. So we have a govt. willing to support this cause and we have a market that is only growing, thanks to high incidence of Diabetes in our population (ESRD and CKD, are comorbidities of diabetes). The govt. is paying Rs.2000 per dialysis sitting which makes things very, very interesting for this market in India. As of June '19, the govt had paid out Rs.175.89 Cr for dialysis. So as outlay for Ayushman Bharat - PMJAY increases, Dialysis market could be the biggest beneficiary, along with the ESRD patients. This is still very early days though.

So to summarise, unlike the earlier foray into blood management which didn’t yield equally good results as IV Cannula (which I put down to opportunity size), the dialysis foray might be more promising due to market size, diabetic demographic and govt intentions and regulations.

Apologies if my thoughts are very unstructured. These are all thoughts I had scribbled in my research journal for this company over several days. Hopefully this will help pique your curiosity for further contributions.

Disc: I have purchased some stock around 230 levels. I am not SEBI registered advisor. I am a novice who does this as a hobby. I am bound to have made several mistakes. Please research on your own before making investment decisions. Read the risks at the top of this post several times or better yet, add some more to that list.

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when I tried to know about current operational status of company, the feedback I got was, company is functioning as usual as they have automated lines with minimum manpower requirement. I didn’t believe it completely but your explanation clears my doubt.
Even tough they are functioning current business scenario doesn’t look good. They are facing problem with logistics,exports haven’t picked up(?some govt restrictions),domestically Govt have cancelled many existing and expected tenders as they placed tenders for PPE and sanitizers which are needed.
I have gone through their product portfolio sometime back and impressed. They seem to cover most of the medical equipment which are part of day to day operations of hospitals and used repeatedly. It may not be easy for Polymed to gain domestic market share from brands like Dispovan, B BRAUN,RAMSONS which are known for good quality and product recall among health care providers. As per interaction there are many local companies which import devices from China and offers at competitive price to hospitals.

I have visited a local company involved in manufacturing and trading of dialysis equipment. Below is the summary based on inputs and my understanding. (This may not be very precise information though)
Dialysis can be done through two routes one is through HD catheter and other route through AV fistula. HD catheter is usually temporary route used in acute setting. Most of the end stage renal disease will have an AV fistula established for dialysis.

  1. HD CATHETERS:
    There are around 45K dialysis machines in India. Each dialysis session is around 3-4 hrs. Possible dialysis session per machine is around 3- 4 per day. If we calculate conservatively :
    45k325 day: 33 lac treatments per month
    10% of them will be HD catheter based that is 3 lac HD catheters. Consider each catheter as around Rs.1500.00.
    45 Cr per month=500 cr per year (as many patients will be on same catheter for dew dialysis session we can consider 1/4 th of 500 cr as market size (125 cr)
    Mahurkar ( Medtronics ) is the leader in HD catheters with maximum(35%) market share and price is higher than other companies.
  2. Dialyzers:
    Around 5 lac dialyzers are sold in India per month=60 lac dialyzers/year. Each dialyzer is around Rs.400 which gives market opportunity of around 240 cr per year.
  3. Blood tubings and IV needles for AV fistula: based on approximate calculation it translates into market size of 300 cr and 75 cr respectively .
    (these are all approximate nos. I am happy to discuss through pvt message in case required)

Fresinus, Nephro,Baxter,Nikkiso are the market leaders. They are the leading dialysis machine manufacturer and their dialyzers with other consumables are preferred. Fresinus has around 80% market share. Recently state Govts of KA/TN/AP and kerala has given contracts to Nikkiso and Nephro.

  1. Polymed has central venous catheters also. Roughly the market size for the same will be around 3 times of HD catheter.

Discl: Holding 4% of current portfolio. I have done transactions recently.

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@deevee - I think a more relevant comparison would be with Romsons, if we can. I think financials of Romsons didn’t used to be available easily earlier as this group was split or some major units were run under non-company status. If you can pull out financials, it will be great.

@Donald - Having been invested in this company for almost 12-15 years now, its been a very interesting journey. Few things which have stood out for me and helped me keep things simple are:

  1. Very stable and healthy margins over the years. I think its rare to come across manufacturing cos with operating margins of more than 18-20%. And Polymed has had them for more than a decade now.
  2. Young and promising management - In the initial years I used to come across an article or two which used to give insight around the hard work of the management. How they have slept in factory to ensure timely execution to now see Mr. Himanshu evolve as industry leader and represent the healthcare sector at CII platform. Despite family members as the key people, this company run like a professional company.
  3. Ambitious yet balanced + continuous investment - Management never talks aggressive for short to medium term but remains very ambitious to scale up and become a big player over longer term. Over the years, slowly they have kept adding factories (from 1 to almost 5-7 now), kept expanding product range and kept entering new areas. Recently I was pleasantly surprised to see the revamped website which focuses on so many new areas of treatment.

Add to this, the sector they are in is evergreen and growing. Today the most important thing for them is the reach and brand recognition they have created. With almost 600-700 Cr sale and 90-100 Cr of annual profit, they can easily acquire/develop/push lots of new products…which won’t be possible for a small/new company. This might be a competitive edge for them.

@phreakv6 - good insights. From what I understand - the company has invested good money in dialysis and are excited that they are one of the first or perhaps the only Indian company to get success however the numbers have been pretty low as of now. Many purists will call it a failure as the ratios etc would be pathetic but I feel this is how good cos evolve. They invest maybe ahead of time into areas which can scale up quite a lot.
Its pretty hard to get a breakup of the turnover from different products for this company.

I don’t know why people still worry about the Vadra news thing that happened several years back - the company is in a business which doesn’t require political links. So its fair to say that they have done well due to quality of their products etc.

@spartan - thanks for your inputs they are helpful.
I believe almost every company would be affected with Covid. And perhaps one shouldn’t be building portfolio based on just this factor. One can ignore the next couple of quarters and focus on longer term earnings.

Regards,
Ayush
Disc: Invested in family portfolio and clients.

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@ayushmit just wanted to get some insights. If you see the Sales growth from 2010 -2015 (I have chose this period as it NP picked in 2015) it grew the sales on an average of 24% and Net profit grew 36%. From 2016-2019 Sales grew 14% and Net Profit grew 13%. It is also evident from the share price that it picked in 2015 and after that it has not crossed till Feb 20 hike.

As an investor I see growth in Sales/NP is important factor but here the growth was below 15%. Can you please throw some light on what prompted you to keep the stock holding in your portfolio after 2015. What factors you were tracking other than sales/profit growth for Poly Medicure?

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As you have rightly mentioned @nityanandparab - the growth has slowed down over last 5 years and often I felt that valuations were too expensive…must have done some profit booking from time to time too. However in recent times the growth seems to have picked up a bit and stock is now at lower end of valuation range (over last 5 years)
Somehow I feel comfortable with this company maybe because 1. its consistent 2. i still see growth potential
I also feel that there are some sectors/cos which deserve higher valuation and give more comfort.
From return perspective you are right that nothing great has happened here in last 5 years. But stock has been better than many of the crap I have had :slight_smile:

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Hello Aayush,

Can you share your thoughts on the related party transactions with VITROMED HEALTHCARE, which in the same business and owned by the promoters.

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Hello,
Whatever limited information available, this copy looks very interesting however there is very little information available on the company except AR. As coy does not hold result conference and management hardly speaks to media, hence it’s very difficult to dig deeper.
Can u please share some source for getting more information on the coy.
Thanks in advance!!
Regards
Lokesh

This has been concerning as the value of transactions have increased over the period. I don’t have clarity around this but broadly this entity/these transactions relate to sourcing of Safety IV cannula.

Hi…

I am new to this thread. Have been reading about the company over the last few days.

Looks good to me on most parameters. I have been paying special attention to your comments ( for obvious reasons ).

Can u please quantify ur latest comment wrt the related party transaction. I hope the issue does not warrant a change in the basic thought of resonable conviction about the company and its Management.

Would love to hear from you.

Regards,
Ranvir Dehal