Lincoln Pharma ... the next mid-cap pharma in the making ...?

The Cephalosporin capex (it was small I think but don’t remember the numbers) was announced in FY22. Apart from that company has not undertaken any major capex in the last few years.

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Hi, Mridul. Lincon Pharma looks interesting to me. Could you please share the HDFC Sec report you mentioned in the comment? I’m unable to access the report. If you have it, kindly email it to me at adityashaw2604@gmail.com.

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Lincoln Pharmaceuticals Q4FY24 results. Profits rise y-o-y and Q-o-Q, but margins contract. Waiting for management commentary on results before deciding whether to exit or hold.

Q4 results out :

0c218363-5c32-4c13-b842-23f3229bde79.pdf (bseindia.com)

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Company had their first conference call ever - which is a good sign!
There were few inconsistencies in the answers given by management. I hope they come better prepared next time around.

Few notes:
Company mentioned Rs 1000 Cr revenue target in next three years from current 581 Cr. That is ~20% cagr.
At some other time, they mentioned 15-18% growth year-on-year going forward.
(in previous quarterly ppt, they had mentioned Rs. 750 Cr revenue target by FY26).
Let’s see where they land in coming years.
But main message is, in any scenario, company is confident of >15% growth conservatively.

They are trying to improve the business in export markets and also in domestic market. Reaching out directly to doctors, increasing MRs etc.

New “Cephalosporin” capacity to generate 55-60Cr revenue in FY25. That alone would be 9-10% growth over FY24 revenue. Cephalosporin could generate ~150Cr revenue when utilized fully.

Company’s capex in FY25 & FY26 to be driven from internal accruals. So expect them to remain debt free.

There were questions regarding loans to promoters - which could be a red flag. Needs to be checked in annual report.

Lastly, they invited investors to come and meet them in office and also for the factory tour! Seems like the company is trying to get investors attention.

Overall, company still looks decent with 12x-13x PE, debt free status and quiet grower without much hullabaloo in the current multi-bagger mania.

Disc. Invested

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The massive increase in Promoters’ holding is Icing on the Cake.

But it’s more of an unbranded generic, not a great branded generic.

So, we need to see whether it gets re-rated or not.

Not invested. Just tracking.

dr.vikas

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Response on unsecured loans, As per to Mgmt, this is a kind of Capex and will be announced when due diligence/everything is cleared. But still keep the question open on why the loan is fairly big esp before due diligence.

There was follow up question on same, and mgmt responded that in future they will look at being more transparent and aligned with industry practice. This will remain an area to keep a watch.


image

Disc: Invested

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Lincoln doesn’t even supply to US

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It’s good to see they are also trying to become a branded generic in the overseas market.

Is this branded generics or is it more of promotion of their brand? I mean they do not sell the same product with and without brand right?

I see this as more of what Caplin does in LatAm market.

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SAST update: Promoter Munjal Patel bought 35,000 shares in the open market. I think promoter will continue to buy smaller quantities of share in the open market of the next 12 months.

Hello,

In the below tracker, I have started tracking important company goals for Lincoln Pharmaceuticals.These goals are referred to as ‘monitorables’ in the tracker.I will update this document regularly to reflect the current status of these goals.

Here’s a snapshot of what the tracker includes:

  • Company Ticker: For identifying the company
  • Monitorable Description: Description of the goal or metric being tracked
  • Date of Announcement: When the monitorable was announced
  • Deadline: Target date for achieving the monitorable
  • Status: Current progress (e.g., Not Fulfilled, Pending)
  • Verification Link: A link to see where I got the information about the goal.

I hope this information makes it easier to observe how well companies are progressing towards their stated goals.

Screenshot of the tracker below:

Full tracker attached below:
Tracking Company Monitorables.xlsx (122.2 KB)

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