Looks decent but don’t you think Price to sales of nearly 7 times is too expensive? However I do feel by Q2 2026, they will have 1000 crores revenue (Additional revenue flowing through the acquisition and data center business)
By looking at the Geospecial market TAM in India and company’s growth prospects, PS ratio is a small factor. Real story is yet to be unfolded I think.
Interesting to note Ceinsys is seen around cloud players now. There is mention about AI for enhancing speed/efficiency of the Geospatial processes.
Ceinsys updates from the other thread.
Ceinsys came up with a PPT today.
So far water has been the driver for Higher revenues, need to check how the other 3 pan out next year.
Acquisitions to be watched out for …Also we can see a CTO for Meg-Nxt vertical at work since 2 yrs,can expect some interesting product suite here as mentioned by management in previous calls.
Slide 36 is a disappointment, unwarranted comparison as Market cap can change anyday.
These are not very intelligent moves. This always puts a question mark on management regarding their intention of pumping stock price.
I have mixed feelings about this rebrand - it feels unnecessary unless it is really backed by a big shift towards AI, through some acquisitions. They do have some openings in AI like this
But it definitely doesn’t warrant a rebrand. Also the recent snippet from Mr.Khona for a business magazine mentioned AI 12 times and Geospatial - 0 times.
Other than the usual nonsense about market size and GDP etc., there’s something about sovereign AI and data localisation which are policy driven moves - I can only hope they are trying to participate in these ventures. But Ceinsys currently has zero capabilities in these. It can only come through acquisitions, if at all.
Of course all these are negatives but I mentioned I had mixed feelings - so what I am optimistic about is that the 8.16 lakh options granted to Rashi Mehta have an exercise price of Rs.1916 and a vesting period of 3 years.
Unless she adds substantial value to the company, these options will expire worthless because she will have to put in Rs.156 Cr to exercise these options. To put that in context, Rashi and husband Tarun Raisoni have already put in Rs.125 Cr in QIP (and promoter 100 Cr to protect himself from dilution) - this Rs.156 Cr is more than this QIP amount.
What I like about this is that the exercise price protects me as a shareholder from dilution. Also though John Chawallibog (from VTS USA acquisition) was granted options two weeks back, it was at an exercise price of Rs.1700 odd though both Rashi’s and John’s were filed for approval to the board at the same time. To put it in context Kamat’s options were at Face value of Rs.10 from ESOP '22 and vesting period was 2 years. Board recently changed vesting period to 3 years and the higher exercise prices are great to us as shareholders.
Now why is all this important? Because of Tarun Raisoni and Rashi Mehta’s background having founded Gruve and having built Rahi and sold it for Rs.1800 Cr - they bring in serious data center and AI capabilities and are in this with their own money and have option to build more value for themselves and cash in with the options.
When this new Ceinsys branding was done and AllyGrow was acquired and Kamat and Khona were brought in as well, there was transformation in this company. I can only hope bringing on Rahi founders in the QIP and granting them options and rebranding as CSTECH.ai also transforms the company. As of now I am divided on this since moves like this are cheap market cap grabs in general but given the circumstances the company finds itself in, I stay hopeful
Disc: Invested. No recent transactions
Excellent analysis as always. Why did Rashi accept for 1900+ exercise price when John was given for 1700?
For making it simpler here is what Phreak means.
To calculate the total value of the options granted to Rashi Mehta, we need to make some assumptions:
Assumptions:
- Current Market Price: Let’s assume the current market price of the company’s shares is Rs. ‘X’.
- Vesting Schedule: We’ll assume a linear vesting schedule (options vest equally over the 3-year period).
Calculations: - Intrinsic Value (per option):
- If ‘X’ (current market price) > Rs. 1916 (exercise price), then Intrinsic Value = ‘X’ - 1916
- If ‘X’ (current market price) <= Rs. 1916 (exercise price), then Intrinsic Value = 0
- Total Intrinsic Value: Intrinsic Value per option * 816,000 options
Example (Hypothetical): - If the current market price (‘X’) is Rs. 2500 per share:
- Intrinsic Value per option = 2500 - 1916 = Rs. 584
- Total Intrinsic Value = Rs. 584 * 816,000 = Rs. 475,424,000
- Total Value in Crores = Rs. 475,424,000 / 10,000,000 = Rs. 47.54 crores (approximately)
Note: This is a simplified calculation. The actual value of the options can be more complex depending on factors like:
- Volatility of the stock price
- Time to expiration
- Interest rates
- Vesting schedule (if not linear)
Disclaimer: This is for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
New order of 381 crores.
Company in talks with 3 other companies outside India for acquisition, expected to close by MARCH 2025.
expecting decadal long opportunity for geospatial companies to grow with government’s initiatives for GIS in ( urban infra, water management).
Larger orders >50 crs are expected to be complete within 12- 18 months time frame.
Expecting rev CAGR OF 60%/ EBITDA 64%/ PAT 35%.
slower EPS is due to conversion of warrants to equity.
Src~ aditya birla capital report on geospatial sector.
