The biggest concern is the two brothers not getting along. I dont know how the split will impact. additionally the market leader PAGE is also not doing great.
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What makes you infer this?
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Technically speaking, there is an RSI divergence on the charts.
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Well, I donāt know much about charts and technicals, but my thesis is (1) p/b bottoming out to all-time-lows, and at the same time (2) p/e instead being at a significant premium to the historical p/e, together indicate a bottoming-out of the price. To me: (2) above is indicative of āhopeā of good things to come. Additionally, I rationalized all this in light of the narrative I shared earlier (all bad news baked in).
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KRBL
I feel KRBL offers an opportunity for an asymmetric bet:
The stock price has taken a big hammering in the last few months. Some of it is of course because the business didnāt do relatively well in the last couple of quarters; as per my understanding the reason for that is the export business to the gulf countries took a hit because of a multitude of reasons
(1) the relationship with the distributor in Saudi Arabia didnāt work outā¦while they are looking for a new distributor but as of today their exports to the country are almost nil
(2) business in Iran has taken a hit because of the ongoing conflict in the region
(3) shipments are delayed/expensive because of Houthi situation
In my view all the issues above a transitionary and should sort themselves out in due course. Additionally, in the last concall the MD said that Europe exports are growing at a fast clip + they are working hard towards finding a new distributor in Saudi Arabia.
Disc: invested; this is not a buy/sell recommendation, please do your own due diligence
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Any sector/ industry that someone can find with lots of pessimism ? Seems like everything is going up in last few months
Chemicals and pharma
Yep. Recently The Morning Context-released an article on how Tata Chemicals is facing oversupply in commodity chemicals like soda ash and bicarbonates. But they are essential chemicals for batteries and glass manufacturing. So there might be a rebound.
Paper industry is another one facing an influx of cheap imports. Solar panel imports and steel dumping as well. Basically Chinese oversupply being stopped in US and EU being diverted to us and ASEAN block.
Cotton mills such as Rajapalayam and Ambika facing supply, demand uncertainties. Garment manufacturers facing competition from Bangladesh and Vietnam.
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Is there anything else beyond Nazara and Delta in this spaceā¦? Do we have any hardware (slot machine), design service related business in India ?
Would IT sector fall into this category? Most of the companies are signaling no to low growth and US investments in service industry has also gone down. However, with AI investments skyrocketing, future looks bright. What does folks think about it?
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I think IT sector is relatively non contributor to recent relly and ignored. IT big names are giving stable results & can bounce back in near term 1-3/4qtr.
Long term perspective I think they will have challenge getting business from US Market as US IT spends will reduce. those which have high % revenue comming from US will have challenging time ahead.
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