Buying the pessimism: Trying to catch the bottom

The biggest concern is the two brothers not getting along. I dont know how the split will impact. additionally the market leader PAGE is also not doing great.

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What makes you infer this?

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Technically speaking, there is an RSI divergence on the charts.

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Well, I don’t know much about charts and technicals, but my thesis is (1) p/b bottoming out to all-time-lows, and at the same time (2) p/e instead being at a significant premium to the historical p/e, together indicate a bottoming-out of the price. To me: (2) above is indicative of “hope” of good things to come. Additionally, I rationalized all this in light of the narrative I shared earlier (all bad news baked in).

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KRBL

I feel KRBL offers an opportunity for an asymmetric bet:

The stock price has taken a big hammering in the last few months. Some of it is of course because the business didn’t do relatively well in the last couple of quarters; as per my understanding the reason for that is the export business to the gulf countries took a hit because of a multitude of reasons

(1) the relationship with the distributor in Saudi Arabia didn’t work out…while they are looking for a new distributor but as of today their exports to the country are almost nil
(2) business in Iran has taken a hit because of the ongoing conflict in the region
(3) shipments are delayed/expensive because of Houthi situation


In my view all the issues above a transitionary and should sort themselves out in due course. Additionally, in the last concall the MD said that Europe exports are growing at a fast clip + they are working hard towards finding a new distributor in Saudi Arabia.

Disc: invested; this is not a buy/sell recommendation, please do your own due diligence

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