Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

Its best when the trend is reversed --that has high probability

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TVS Motor Company Limited

1 year daily chart
Breakout has been done 650 Level
CMP 657
Funda
Nothing special as such but TVS iQube has been launched

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It’s Swiggy and TVS deal

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SRF weekly chart BO.

Polycab weekly chart BO

Tanla solutions weekly charts BO

All 3 are doing good on qtr to qtr results

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For those of us (me) who are still learners it would be really helpful to have some text related to your charts. I appreciate the fact that there may be very few of us…slow learners!

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Biocon - weekly breakout with volumes, strong Q3 performance and commentary by Biologics biz

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Deepak Fert, Monthly - That trendline breakout in the previous post has now developed very quickly into a C&H breakout with serious volumes

What is also very nice to see is that the numbers are well and truly out-of-the-park this quarter with 35% Sales growth, 62% EBITDA growth and 103% PAT growth. This should support and propel the technicals. Its also nice to see that the quarter numbers aren’t one-off gross-margin driven but is very likely volume driven as the EBITDA margin has improved while gross-margin hasn’t (TAN was running at 110% capacity utilization).

Thirumalai, Monthly - Breakout and re-test and was struggling to pass 240 levels when the last post was written. Now there’s confirmation of a move on and volumes as well have been very good.

Here again technicals are supported by excellent results with 70% topline growth, 58% EBITDA growth and 106% PAT growth. 40-45% gross margins have been sustainable whenever ADD has been in place like right now. The EBITDA for this quarter is close to the Mar '21 quarter though that quarter had all-time-high gross margins. Clearly this quarter supported by good volume growth.

To put it in perspective, here’s Asian Paints numbers. (Plasticizer is a big input cost for paints).

The narrative in last few years has been that businesses like Asian Paints can squeeze smaller players that supply commodities to them. No sign of that in the last two quarters and there’s a clear migration of profit pool though they still trade at 100 P/E while the lowly commodity player is still trading at under 10 P/E and growing its numbers phenomenally. Let’s see how long this narrative can hold.

Disc: Invested in both

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All 3 failed… need to study what could be improved. The obvious reason is the BO were followed by market correction and the good news (results - for Tanla and SRF) was already factored in for time been. Continue to watch them and will post if there is further development.

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PI ind on monthly, taking support at trendline, been beaten with a recent acquisition fall out, good Q3 performance, fundamentals stay strong, bounce back likely on acquisition closure.

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Smallcap 50, Weekly - Update on this view. It took almost 4 months of distribution at the peak. Now there’s a H&S breakdown on the weekly.

There will be sharp pullbacks probably even within this week but we are more or less done on the long-term trend unless we close above 5500 strongly on the smallcap 50 weekly here for resumption of long-term uptrend. Liquidity vanished in several stocks today and could be the story in several small/microcaps going forward. Gains can be very quickly wiped out in periods like these, so its not time to be brave. Be cautious and try not to be suckered into illiquid micro/smallcaps in the vicious pullbacks, especially if you have no fundamental view with a variant perception.

Disc: My market allocation has been reducing and low last few months so I am perhaps biased in my view.

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HOEC, Weekly - 20W MA has been a strong support and this time as well appears to be bouncing off it. Fundamentally there are some good things happening here with the first oil sale from B-80 field possibly happening in this quarter. The potential for revenue from this field is big and appears to be low risk. Dirok field as well will start contributing more from 35 mmscfd to 55 mmscfd with its current phase-2 expansion (75 therafter). There’s a 35 km gas pipeline as well being laid which will give it access to NE markets without transportation. Some details on revenue projections here. 300 Cr topline and 200 Cr bottomline possible from B-80 and this is with Oil between $55-$60. He also mentions that each $1 increase in oil price add 8 Cr to their topline. Can be a potential hedge against oil and gas prices which are going up due to geopolitical tensions

GPIL, Weekly - Looks to be a big breakout week after a long downwards consolidation in the channel. Cheaper absolutely, as well as relatively among peers, the stock has been discussed threadbare in the GPIL thread. Captive mines give it a distinct competitive edge. higher quality ore and presence in pellets a good advantage. The sale of non-care asset (solar plant) is a positive. The biggest positive now is the steel tailwind with the war and consequent higher inflation (steel up 10% in Europe last 2 days. NYSE ARCA Steel index is up 15% in one week, 4% today and appears heading for 52 wk highs)

Disc: Have trading positions in both. HOEC between 220-185. GPIL between 290-300.

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Laurus at IH&S breakout point - possible targets 650+ on successful breakout, Nov to March consolidation, Pharma as sector holding well in recent sell off, many generic and API players promoter buying from market( Alembic etc), usually sector does well than most could as well, some insider buying visible in Laurus in Feb as well.

Retail fancied in recent past, fundamentals well covered in thread

Invested

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Linde India Ltd at all time highs after breaking out of a Cup with Handle pattern with really strong volumes. There is almost no impact of the general market weakness in this stock. The hydrogen story can play out well for this stock.

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Mukta Arts bouncing back from 200 Dma after Price Damping Have a look on chart

fundamental
Refer

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PI ind - Daily, downward channel breakout, double bottom formation, flag breakout on longer term. Fundamental well covered in PI thread, Pharma asset acquisition and margin trajectory key monitorable.

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Punjab Corp, Agro CMO, 6 mo consolidation breakout point, volume uptick, need a closing candle outside triangle to confirm, sector has tailwinds from demand perspective, though some headwinds on Input cost as well, company being CMO claims to have ability to pass and protect margins.

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Syngene at interesting point, IH&S breakout and triangle, IH&S if plays out puts it just above ATH. Peers like Suven has given a breakout recently.


Invested

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Chart Update
CMP 57 now
All major resistance have been broken down

Next Target will be 64
Stop Loss will be 54

Swelect Energy Systems Limited

In this dull market, Swelect Energy Systems Limited has performed very well in the last trading sessions now under all time high category

fundamental :

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