Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

Gujarat Alkalies. Breaking out after 4+ years with retest on Weekly TF. Looks promising with classic VCP & Cup n handle patterns. Entered just above BO level with tracking quantity…Would add more above 1040 for target of 1680.

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Fed Meeting & US Markets

All major US Indices are poised at critical support levels -just before US Fed meeting tonight.

Would Fed contimue its hawkish stand or it would reverse its recent policies !

A Make Or Break day (or night) for many markets including ours.

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This H & S is wrong (that’s why it failed )

An inverse H & S plays out when a stock is coming out of long downtrend .

Similarly a normal H & S works if the stock is in long uptrend.

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As per Elliot wave theory , we are probably entering in Wave 2.

A prolonged correction is underway ( with usual ups and downs- bear market bounces happen to be fast ) but overall trend is expected to be down.

Is it the time to start a new thread named ** Bear Therapy** :grinning:

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Haven’t been active here since there isn’t much to do in a time like this other than sit out with some other productive activity.

Update on this view from Feb and Oct.

It is playing out as expected since Feb with steep decline (just as steep as the runup) wiping out about 50% of the gains from the Mar '20 bottom. Where will it stop? My guess is that we are heading for another 20-30% decline from here to get to Jan '20 levels. It may get there by end of year with some pullbacks if swing traders have the nerve.

The emerging macro headwinds with the tightening of liquidity and increase in rates, the receding Covid tailwinds, coupled with inflation could compress earnings and the higher rate outlook could depress multiples. Market will bottom when Covid traders and influencers pack their bags and leave.

Disc: Low market allocation since last several months (probably Oct or so), so please take opinion with a pinch of salt

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RELIANCE 1D chart

This daily chart shows RSI / Price divergence on last 5-7 candles

Previous lower swing is 2465.

With CMP 2510 offers reasonable RR if TP probability kept at Fib 0.786 level which also has a large unfilled gap