Biocon - The ultimate biosimilars play!

Biocon has been a underdog for quite some time now, to a point where pretty much folks have given up on them barring contra and high conviction folks with super long term views - silent thread is a good measure

Here is a 12 Qtr view

Some valuation takeaways and Q2 call highlights

  • Though PE is not a right metric as they have E under pressure being in perpetual Capex phase, even after that they are below long term median PE range
  • with Market cap of 40K cr, available at 5X sales and less than 23X EBDITA- that’s for a global scale Biotech and CRAMS player.

BelowTriggers for turn around in performance ( ignored by mkt for now)

  • Biosimilar performance and margins improvement visible with back to back margins improvement - per call Geo mix helping with mkt share gains/steady
  • Multiple Biosimilar positive trigers - post above by @stockcollector
  • Syngene performance going steady- although hammered by mkt along with Biocon
  • Generics can’t get any bad - cycle on pricing pressure to turn around next year as regular cyclical aspect and RM pressure to ease as well as covid stocking etc to normalize
  • SII vaccine partnership, Adagio partnership appear to be smart win win proposition
  • Good investors with successive raise in valuations for biologics

Monthly chart showing a lower channel bounce back, yet to see volume picking up

Invested , Re-entered recently

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