ValuePickr Forum

Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

Thanks for the feedback.
Both Stock touched 52 W high yesterday so it does seem that it was consolidation. Fundamentally Lincoln is into transformation phase (Promoter moving from typical owner mindset to little more professional) - It is cheap and if corporate governance can improve then the stock can go higher. Also important to note is that it has crossed ATH of last many years in this current move which started from ~240. So something may be happening. It should have strong support at ~305-310 and @275-280.
I hold from earlier and will like to keep a bigger SL at 280 to ride any short term fluctuations.
Regards

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Praj broke out above its 2008 high and trading at ATH now. 13 years of trendline breakout. Results for this qtr is good and its also into clean energy theme among others.

Disc - Invested and added more today.

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Indostar capital finance a strong cup formed and has support at 300 levels addeda vey small position today hoping for a handle to form and how it plays out as risk reward ration seems favourable

Fundamentals :-90 % plus promoter holding sales has doubled in past 5 years ,trading below book value only concern is not comfortable with holding small nbfc due to covid

New to tech analysis,expert opinion needed

Hey, I think for every technical analysis volume behaviour is also must. The volume must be minimum at the bottom of the cup or else the chart could be faulty. Also, it would be better to draw the area of the cup you are referring to, so that others can identify it easily. Thanks.

Edit: as per William O’Neil, before every cup formation, there should be at least 30% upside move. I don’t see this in the chart but i am sure I am not reading the chart the way you are.

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Better to invest in the range of 260 to 280 range. It may come down to retest the breakout.

Dynemic Products, Weekly - Flag formation and a breakout this week. The fundamentals have been dissected with a lot of detail in the wonderful VP thread here. This is a simple capex completion play - CWIP = 3x Fixed Assets. There is a lot of capacity and if they are able to sell the capacity in the next 2-3 years, there is a lot of scope for growth. At current prices, there might still be value. The risk is if they aren’t able to grow and the depreciation hits the PnL hard post completion. Also, its a illiquid microcap.

Pokarna, Monthly - ATH Breakout. Again lot of great work done on the fundamentals already in the VP thread here. This again is a international housing growth + capex completion play - with CWIP = 2xFixed Assets. The thread captures the possibilities. The price probably doesn’t yet capture the possible growth. Again, there are similar risks of not being able to grow and taking the depreciation hit in the near term. Valuation is still in favor if the view is bit long

Amrutanjan, Monthly - Breakout from a 6 year consolidation. Numbers last couple of quarters have been great but as I have mentioned here before here and here, I am not convinced on what’s driving growth and it looks like neither is the management. It might just be Covid driving it. Valuation is still cheap if these numbers are sustainable.

Disc: Have position in Dynemic from 500 levels. Pokarna from 220 (Added around 300 when it was breaking out) and Amrutanjan from 460 (Added more recently)

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@Jiitt007 - No I don’t. I reduced some around 12 and sold out completely between 9-10 much later as better opportunities showed up. The thesis of not going bust and surviving played out but thriving, am not seeing signs yet. Can always change my mind if evidence shows up.

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BEPL (Bhansali Engineering Polymers Ltd.)

A potential multibagger:

  • 3 Years ROCE: 54.07%
  • 3 Years ROE: 39.77%
    with an impressive
  • Topline growth of 19.48% CAGR over last 5 years and
  • Bottomline growth of 83.18% CAGR over last 5 years

DISCLOSURE: (Missed at 80-85 level) Made a fresh entry at current levels.

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  1. Volatility Contraction seen in IOLCP daily. ATR contraction
  2. Ascending triangle breakout.
  3. Various moving average (20,50,100,200) very close to each other.

Fundamentally I could not find any relevant news. Maybe people are expecting good Q4 results

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Aegis logistics… It has done two BO at same levels and retesting the same … I believe it is weak breakout but still if it sustain above 325 then further highs … On monthly charts it has given a good breakout


Daily chart of Aegis


Monthly chart of Aegis

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Salzer Electronics can go ballistic above the supply zone.
Avaliable at ~10 P/E
Primarily involved in making industrial switches
Can get favourable tailwinds from cable sector
Have good clientage - L&T, Schneider, GE, Indian Railways, Honeywell, OTIS
Market cap is small so may not be favourable for biggies.

PostNumber#1

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Nifty Infra index breaking out after 10 years.

PNC Infra

KNR Construction:

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Hello All - Trying to learn TA & the major patterns. Can someone pls critique if Maruti Chart shows a valid Cup & Handle pattern on monthly chart attached?

Cheers

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This is not a valid cup and handle pattern.

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Chart of ZF Steering India
A simple upward channel breakout on heavy volumes on the monthly chart and a close above
it. All Short term guppy moving averages have all moved over the long term ones.

Some changes have happened in the co -

  1. Their JV with ZF and later Bosch after Bosch took over had been in the red since inception. ZF had a 26% stake in this business in which they had pumped in a lot of money ~130 crs for years. The total accumulated losses of the JV stood at 383 crores. This loss-making JV was terminated in July 2019 and they received a consideration of 62 crores for their stake. This loss created a deferred tax asset of 25cr which co can use to reduced tax liability. The co also has liquid investments of 120cr
  2. The co posted good numbers in H2’21 posting a 6M H2 eps of 11.7 from a loss in H2’20.
  3. The co has always been cash flow positive and with the overhang of this loss making JV out of the way it seems things are improving on the profitability and balance sheet front.

Best
Bheeshma

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Coastal Corporation.
Business - Seafood processing. Shrimps exports.
Micro cap with ~230 crs. of Mkt Cap. CMP - 222.

Ascending triangle BO (crossed 200 DMA) with all time high volumes on daily, weekly and monthly charts.
50 DMA about to cross 200 DMA.
Not participated in current rally and has taken support at 170 at the trendline and sharply bounced back.
Sector charts are looking better for other companies too.

Good return ratios, inexpensive valuations, good FCF and OCF yields (20%+), New capex almost doubled capacity, Mgmt subscribed to warrants at Rs.187/- (though still low promoter holding).

Shrimp exports should pick up as western countries open up and China eventually lifts import restrictions. Shrimp demand from household segment has shot up in the absence of demand from HORECA segment but even after opening up I think the retail household demand should be more the pre-covid levels (due to healthy diet adoption and ease of cooking). Sector has Govt. focus too (allocation of 40k Crs towards aqua culture). Promoter takes Rs.33 lacs as salary and 2.5% of Net profits as commission (till now couldn’t find any major negative on Promoter).

Short term issues due to Covid remain like labour issues, logistics issues (due to Covid) and subject to RM prices volatility, etc., but these issues should get resolved sooner than later and next 2-3 yrs can be good business wise.


Weekly Chart

Return Ratios:


image

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Here is a little longer perspective on Aegis
It gave a cup and handle breakout at 270 odd, crossed the previous all time high of 300.
Then it retested 270 levels and formed a good base, bounced from the trendline and resumed the upmove

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Not good with targets etc., and can’t say by when, might sound bit outlandish but looking at the pattern maybe 500+. If biz wise does well then maybe more in next 2-3 yrs.

Has just done a golden cross today where 50 DMA has crossed 200 DMA with good volumes, so may have further momentum.

Maybe somebody more proficient in technical analysis can confirm and reply.

Discl: Have bought multiple times in last 1 month. It was more of a fundamental find but then saw the charts which looked good as well.

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HI

I want to start learning Technical Analysis. Can you all pls guide me whats the best way to start. Recommendation on Books for Beginners, Web resources, videos would help. Which are the best websites for getting technical charts. thanks

Nifty now in 5th Wave since covid crash.

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