ValuePickr - Chintan Baithak 2019

Accelerated Learning
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We spent the last 4 days in Goa with the top contributors. This was the 5th consecutive year and the way ValuePickr has gone from strength to strength has been an amazing journey.

The sessions were intense with stock ideas, learnings of the year being discussed every day from morning till midnight. Unlike some of the previous years, this year we did get a 30 mins slot out of the 4 days to actually go out and walk on the beach (just to make sure the sea was there and for photo-op)!!

This year Hiren Ved, from Alchemy Capital, was gracious enough to spend a lot of quality time with us. He had a marathon session (around 6 hrs) sharing his journey and learnings from the markets since he started in 1991.

I am inviting all the participants to put up their experiences and if they want to their presentations in this thread.

Here are some pictures from the event.

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1AM discussion on the poolside

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The participants with Hiren
Standing L to R Deepak Venkatesh, Narendra Prasad, Ayush Mittal, Sandeep Patel, Abhishek Basumalick, Hitesh Patel, Bharani Manoharan(Phreak), Hiren Ved, Rupesh Tatiya, Sandeep Kapadia, Kedar, Jiten Parmar, Manish Vachhani, Pratyush Mittal
Sitting L to R Ankit Gupta, Kumar Saurabh, Amit Rupani, Dhwanil Desai, Rahul Lingala, Harshit Goel, Dhiraj Dave, Vivek Mashrani

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In session

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One of my presentations in the meet.

Will update my takeaways from Hiren’s session after I get a chance to write it up from my notebook.

Stock presentation -Abhishek - VP Meet 2019.pdf (748.2 KB)

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It was an immense honor and a great learning experience for me to have been part of the meet this year. I soaked up the collective wisdom of all the VP stalwarts, the rest of us and Hiren Ved of course. Some of the diligence and meticulousness I saw in researching stock ideas showed me how much further I had to go.

This is my learnings presentation

of oaks and reeds.pdf (251.3 KB)

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My takeaways from Hiren Ved’s lecture.

  • Visiting plants of companies helps in understanding the difference between Good plant & Bad plant. Small small things like Observing management behaviour towards employees, plant cleanliness, comparison with peer’s plants. These things gives a better perspective of the company. Visiting multiple plants helps in creating a proper reference point.

  • Channel checks is important, talk to anybody in the ecosystem of the company.

  • In june 2007 US started correcting but emerging markets were ripping, Then P notes happened in Sept 2007. When Bear Sterns happened in March 2008. Felt discomfort regarding market valuations then.

  • Don’t try to find the next big thing. Not all business have all the right ingredients to make it big. There’s only one HDFC Bank or one Bajaj Finance.

  • Need to understand Macros to understand the context. To better understand the environment around you.

  • Basic principles are static. But environment keeps changing. You need to adapt your basic principles to the environment you are in.

  • Keep asking WHY? Why companies like HUL trade at these valuations.
    To generate those returns on capital (which companies like HUL are doing) at such huge scale is phenomenal. That’s why these companies get such high multiples/

  • Why current market so Bipolar?
    Business environment and Government environment changing drastically. All money transferring to companies where you can trust the number. Also the GDP is not doing good. Since the market is not growing much, larger companies taking more of pie. Market is getting displaced. Few gainers more loosers. Richer getting rich.
    Fear is forcing the investors into select quality. Markets giving 60 PE to 20% growth and 50% ROC.

  • As a capital allocator you buy a good business. When that business catches a inflexion point you don’t know, sometimes even the promoter doesn’t know. You keep tracking and remain invested.

  • Good business
    There has to be a large external opportunity and it has to be growing.
    Find a company that has a competitive edge to exploit that opportunity.
    Scalbility. What you did at 500 cr you cannot do the same at 5000 cr. Not all businesses are good at handling scale. Businesses do well at a level and they drop off after reaching higher scale.
    Quality of management:
    Capital allocation and Leverage (Biggest indicator to check management),
    Every investor at every point made money.
    Valuations: What is the right price? Absolute and relative valuations. Maker give valuation on Growth and ROC.

  • Small/Mid cap: Foot in the door approach. Buy a little bit and watch it.

  • Conviction build over time. You buy and then watch the management. Are they delivering or not. Delivering the promises. Then slowly and steadily the conviction builds. There are no answers on day one.

  • Value investing did not work in India in it’s traditional sense. What has worked is Growth with Quality.

  • What is going to change or unlock the value of business. Deep value can’t work if the management is not capable or honest.

  • When you invest in growth you have to be careful of data affecting growth negatively. Growth is decelerating then there is a very real potential for a PE derating.

  • Sensitive to valuations at time of entry but not at exit.

  • I have to understand what market is paying for. Say if market is paying for growth and for two quarters growth reduces then you should reconsider your thesis.

  • You don’t have to play bind like in Poker. You can play seen. It is our biases which forces us/ scares us even after seeing all the cards. Market gives you opportunity. Be patient.

  • Reevaluation of ideas and investments in necessary. Do a kind of a ranking of ideas.

  • All great investors have some discipline which they follow.

  • If you evaluate the company at it’s 200 DMA then that’s where the risk and reward is the best.

  • Be open to learning and keep your EGO in check. You are nobody.

  • Success will come if you are at it.

  • Every sector in which fancy is build goes through two phases/ or has two versions basically.
    Version 1.0: It’s like the wild west. It’s a new sector. Everybody takes a shot at it. You have to be very smart and alert to get off the horse at the right time. (e.g. NBFCs in recent market)
    Version 2.0: More sustainable. Less Growth.

  • In banks/nbfc Top guy is very important in the sense he creates a culture which is more important than systems.

  • We tend to ignore the first chink in the armour. Do not ignore it, you don’t need to act on it but it should be looked into it. Concept of materiality in this is important, how material the amount or event is?

Thanks & Regards
Harshit Goel

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Just like to add- cos like HUL, HDFC,Marico- business continue to grow because of ecosystem they built, culture they built which reward performers, it takes time, it is not easy. INFY built to a great extent.that is one glue factor which attracts the best of the mind…naturally results follow…

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As every year it was a great experience to participate in the annual goa VP chintan baithak. It was great to see the enthusiasm of all the participants especially the new guys who were attending the meet for the first time. The zeal to learn and imbibe knowledge was quite evident and great to see. There were a lot of academic sessions, fun moments, volleyball game, beach walk, and an impromptu antakshari. :grinning:

For me the most satisfying thing is to see the upward trajectory in learning curve of the participants and more so of the guys who were relatively new to the field of investing and who attended the VP meets over the years and kept learning more and more and took to investing like duck to water.

Hiren Ved was a wonderful guest. I dont need to encapsulate his presentation as Harshit has covered almost everything on his presentation barring a few witty jokes which cannot be shared on this forum.:grinning: He was very generous in sharing all his accumulated wisdom in an humble and friendly manner.

The knowledge and wisdom shared by the participants gives a new perspective on philanthropy. Philanthropy should not be viewed only in terms of giving away accumulated wealth. An even better way to give away something would be to share accumulated knowledge and wisdom.

I feel a lot of people who are new to the field of investing need a helping hand up to a point (after which they need to mature and find most of the answers to their questions themselves) and thats where the role of senior contributors becomes very important. If one has accumulated a lot of learning and skill in the field of investing (or any other field for that matter) its a great thing to share it for the benefit of others rather than carrying it to one’s grave.

I am attaching my stock idea on Lux industries and all subsequent queries should be addressed on the relevant thread of the stock in question. That applies to all the ideas presented on this thread. Any stock queries on this thread will be deleted promptly so make sure to put up all the queries on the relevant stock thread.

regards
hiteshLUX VP PRESENTATION.pptx (277.6 KB)

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It was a great experience of learning, sharing & brain storming about investing along with fun moments. Hiren Ved’s sessions were of immense wisdom. All participant’s presentations were great & I was amazed by the quality of presentations by the new participants. Chintan Baithaks are aimed at sharing individual’s incremental learnings. By sharing & discussing, one can improve and refine the investing wisdom.
I am attaching my stock presentation on DFM Foods.DFM FOODS VALUEPICKR MEET 2019 BY MANISH VACHHANI.pdf (491.1 KB)

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It was the first time I got to attend the VP Chintan baithak. It was one the best learning experience in my investing career. Got the chance to meet in person, great investing minds whom I have been following on VP for years. Learnt a lot from them about their investing journey and their investment process. What really amazed me was their humbleness and their will to share their knowledge, experience and ideas. Different people from different fields with such diverse backgrounds made past 4 days a learning marathon. Really thankful to all the organisers.

Few of my key learnings from the baithak.

  • Do as much Scuttlebutt as you can. Meet the management. Attend AGMs. Talk to people in industry. Talk to people in the supply chain of the company.
  • Try to answer WHY? Why are the numbers growing? Why is the company at discount?
  • Look for Niche in the company. That one special thing which separates it from the competition. One insight which the market doesn’t know. It helps in increasing conviction.
  • Lear some basic Technical Analysis tools. It helps in getting the entry and exit points right and also when to keep on holding.
  • Share as much as you can. Sharing is Caring.
  • Travel and meet people. Nothing beats it. No amount of financial data reading can help you as much as meeting people of the industry does.

I am attaching my presentation on Parag Milk Foods. Parag Milk Foods Limited.pdf (390.6 KB)

Thanks & Regards
Harshit Goel

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Hello,

This was my first visit to VP Chintan Baithak and it has been an excellent experience. Got huge amount of “Accelerated learning” from all the members who attended the meet. All the seniors attending the meet are very generous and are also great people to spend time with.

All the presentations were well worked upon and many presenters are on top of the companies which they presented. The Industry PPTs are also very well researched and gets us to speed on the industry / companies within the industry.

Hiren Ved’s session was absolutely helpful in the way I approach companies. That was the best investing session I have ever attended till date. Would request everyone to go through @harshitgoel’s notes put above.

Would also like to thank my roommate Dhiraj Bhai @dd1474 a lot for giving immense amount of advice by cutting down his sleep after the sessions. His thoughts on risk-adjusted returns, strong management, valuations are fascinating!

I’m attaching my PPT on Motherson Sumi.
Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd.pdf (280.2 KB)

Thank you!

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Super experience and pleasure again this year. Thanks to guru, seniors and young turks for accelerated learning.

Hiren Ved’s session will linger in mind for long. Generous sharing. Practial gyan shared in straightforward and humble way. Will share my notes (incremental) in next couple of days.

Presented a stock idea where I ventured out of my comfort zone. A sector that is new to me. A business that probably has no moat, no competitive edge, no uniqueness; but is about to enter and/or in middle of great times. An opportunistic bet.

VP 2019 Goa - Ion Exchange v2.pdf (1.7 MB)

Cheers,
Sandeep

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It was a great meet. I presented on the auto sector, a sector which is under stress. Tried to explore the challenges in the sector, what are the changes, when we think it can turnaround and so on. My deck is attached.

I had a great time at the meet. So much to learn. Must commend all the hard work put in by Ayush, Hiteshbhai, Manishbhai, Dhwanil, Abhishek, and others for organizing it.

And a special mention for all the guys who worked so hard on their presentations, despite many having full-time jobs, young families and so on. Tremendous respect for all of you.

vp_auto_sector_up.pdf (366.4 KB)

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No discussion of stocks on this thread. All are requested to post links of their stock presentation on individual threads where others can discuss.

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@Amitdarji

We are awaiting hiren’s permission to put up his presentation. Might take some time but will surely put it up once he gives green signal

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This is a really nice platform to learn from other investors and also get their inputs on your ideas and thought process. How does one attend the Chintan Baithak?

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This was my first vp meet. Day prior to meet I joined with Ayush ,Sandeep Kapadia,Pratyush, Harshit(my room mate) and discussion went on past midnight even before actual vp meet starts. Sandeep bhai has shared insights from his meeting with Charlie whom he admires a lot. He also spoke about his flying wheel model on companies he invest. Came to know that Pratyush being non IT guy and managing screener and valuepickr based on his own learning was amazing.

First day started with me and other newcomers presenting on their investment journey and philosophy. Rahul,Phreak and Amit has presented on their different investment philosophies. Phreak is unique in the sense he looks at investing and his take on different mindsets of investors, his ability to deal with certain situations which we face was amazing which I will try to adopt. During my presentation, I could get insights on some questions which I had on reading books books, cyclical investment… Etc. During first day Rupesh has presented on his stock ideas and he was among the front runner in asking questions on stock ideas presented by others over the next two days.

2nd day we had a great session by Guru Hiren who spoke in detail. Harshit has written in detail about learning by Hiren. Key things for me was: the POWER of REFLECTING on our successes and failures to evolve and adopt as on investor, not to keep ego in investing, version2.0 of investing in strong companies with sustainable growth,capital allocation and leverage is better way to evaluate management quality.

It was followed by chemical industry presentation where detailed discussion happened on key changes happened in industry after chemicals blast in China. Even though I am invested in chemicals companies amount of effort and knowledge shared by Ankit,Dhwanil and Vivek was eye opener to study in detail further.

Next 2 days we had many individual presentation on various stock ideas with discussion which was lead by Ayush, Dhwanil,Sandeep,Ankit,Saurabh,Jiten and others . Ability to track and have deep knowledge on many companies across sectors was astonishing and shows the hard work they do during investing.
Hitesh bhai and Abhishek Dada spoke in detail about their technical investment with fundamentals which was eye opener for me which I will be try to learn. Kedar did excellent presentation on AMC business which will be reference point for me. Capital goods sector presentation was in detail presented by Saurabh,Dheeraj and others. During meeting Hiteshji,Manishji and Ayushji were strict on time and did a great job in covering ppts on time.

For me It was not just about investing but getting to know many people with different mindset and investment thesis. Some of them read 10 year of annual report on company while I use to think reading 3-5 yr annual report was enough. Not to get confused between secular and opportunistic bet and ending up with losses was the biggest take away for me after speaking with Hiteshji. I have to put more effort to have deep knowledge about sectors,companies and will try to adopt insights from the meet to improve further.
My investment journey presentation investment journey.pptx (88.0 KB)

Stock idea presented by me on Praj Ind(will post praj thread)

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This was my second year at VP Chintan Baithak. @phreakv6 and I came by car which gave us 10 hours extra time to discuss before we reach Goa.

Day 1 started with investment journey of new members to the meet. I was amazed by the excellent work done by Rahul, Narendra, Amit and Bharani (Phreak). Each one of them had unique background and still they picked up investing in their own style. The perspectives were quite varied and insightful. As usual sessions ended late night and then many of us were into pool-side discussion mode (see pics from @basumallick in first post to get a glimpse :slight_smile:

2nd day started with early morning swimming followed by marathon session from Hiren Ved. This went on till evening. Triggered so many thoughts for further reflection.

Key learning takeaways from Hiren Ved for me:

  • Keep evolving in your investing journey, keep learning

  • Evaluate your ideas frequently and reflect on buy or sell decisions at later stage to understand what went wrong, what went right, what was thought process earlier vs. outcome

  • Always keep asking WHY? (this was simple but made profound impact)

  • On Indian market: pure Graham style value investing will not work as much as Growth based investing (growth with quality at reasonable valuation could be best approach)

  • Again it was very interesting to see how he evolved across the styles and still evolving

  • Many other insights on importance to access management through their actions, RoC, dilution, capital allocation, body language, tone of speaking etc.

  • Think ahead: look for scalable opportunity, competitive edge, opportunity size in the businesses

  • Look for risk : reward (ideally minimum 1:3) and think in terms of probability; Average UP if the thesis is working in your favour

The list can go on…since it was more than 5+ hours of discussion.

This was then followed by Chemical 2.0 sector presentation which our team prepared (Ankit, Bharani, @desaidhwanil, Narendra, @spatel and myself). This was again marathon session with lot of companies in the sector covered with differential insights by each member.

Next day was very hectic with line-up of individual presentations and also few sector presentations. Amazed by how members like Dhwanil, Ankit, Hitesh Bhai, Manish bhai, Pratyush, Rupesh, Kedar, Ayush bhai, Abhishek dada, @spatel, @dd1474 etc. keep raising bar with more and more insights.

Presentation on insights from Charlie Munger by Sandeep Kapadia was thought provoking and extremely insightful.

During the hangout session Dada and Hitesh bhai presented new areas of Technical Analysis for investors. This was very much appreciated by everyone and made them aware of additional way of looking at markets along with fundamentals.

Sector presentation on Capital Goods was very thorough and amazing how data crunching was done by the team. One of the best I have ever seen on the sector.

On the way back got opportunity to interact at length with @ayushmit, Jiten Parmar, Harshit, Pratyush, Amit, Sandeep Kapadia and Harshit. Can’t get better than this :slight_smile:

Overall, truly inspiring and great learning experience. Lot to absorb, reflect and think over next few days. Lastly, would like to thank entire core team for excellent arrangement and opportunity to be part of this learning bonanza. Thanks.

Here is my company presentation on Mold-Tek Packaging.

Mold-Tek Packaging_Vivek Mashrani_VP Goa Meet.pdf (1.8 MB)

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I truly enjoyed Hiren Ved’s very candid session. His humility is what struck to me the most & that is one of the biggest lessons to remain humble despite successes and failures. Other lessons are covered in detail by Harshit.

Another thing is VP is an exceptional platform where there is disproportionate reward to your contribution. In past three years, we have met several guests like - Sumeet Nagar, Vinay Parikh, Prof. Bakshi, Kenneth Andrade, Hiren Ved etc. Listening to these guys has helped me to evolve faster & gain maturity faster. No other platform provides this opportunity!

All the participants worked very hard on their individual as well as industry presentations & it was very good to get exposure to areas outside of your tracking universe.

My presentation includes following ideas - Laurus Labs, HDFC Life, AIA Engineering, VIP Industries & Camline Fine Sciences. If any questions, let’s take them forward in respective threads.

Rupesh_VP_2019_.pdf (1.3 MB)

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If possible please share sectorial presentations also… chemical sector, capital goods, learnings from CM, Technical Analysis by @hitesh2710and @basumallick…
Thank you for sharing …

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All presentations will be shared in due course. Just keep patience. Donald was not present this time.

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