KCP Ltd - undervalued cyclical company

Can anyone please provide the Q4 transcripts or the conf call details of KCP, did check their website but couldnt find.

I personally interacted with management on this.They have responded each time I have reached out to them.Their take on margin was excess capacity in market.So cement price could not be increased as they would like to.Also there are headwinds in terms of pricing of coal etc.

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I donā€™t think there was a con-call scheduled for Q4. Donā€™t see it on official notification at least.

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Any reason for the fall in KCP, the overall sentiments are bad, however KCP has fallen more in my opinion.
I did browse on the internet and couldnt find any specific news/triggers.

If any one have any information please highlight.
Many thanks.

Q4 2019. Again flat topline and profit halved due to higher expenses. EPS of 0.84 vs 1.80 on the corresponding quarter.

KCP Q2 results attached below. Below average performance.

  1. Cement revenue increased slightly may be due to price cuts etc. But margins have fallen significantly driven by high raw material and power costs.
  2. Vietnam sugar unit one-off good performance in last year same quarter has disappeared. Not sure whats happening there.
  3. Cherry on the cake - audit report says management salary has been revised. Not sure but may be upwards. Dont know what this means for management quality, when both earnings and stock price have crashed. Happy to be corrected, if its been revised downwards.

No wonder Mr.Market has cracked the whip on this stock. Future also bleak, given that at current price also it looks expensive compared to earning power.
KCP-Q3FY19.pdf (2.3 MB)

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Reason for disappointment from Vietnamese sugar ā€¦https://m.english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/business/209253/vietnamese-sugar-mills-struggle-to-compete.html#ui=mobile

Management trying to increase salary above 10% NP. Got a notification regarding board meeting.

Reported Standalone quarterly numbers for KCP are:

Net Sales at Rs 272.98 crore in December 2018 up 3.83% from Rs. 262.90 crore in December 2017.

Quarterly Net Loss at Rs. 3.81 crore in December 2018 down 126.44% from Rs. 14.40 crore in December 2017.

EBITDA stands at Rs. 12.75 crore in December 2018 down 67.32% from Rs. 39.01 crore in December 2017.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/earnings/kcp-standalone-december-2018-net-sales-at-rs-272-98-crore-up-3-83-y-o-y-3530501.html

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Commercial production for manufacturing of Cement at our Muktyala Line II of 1.66 million
tons per annum commenced today 18th February 2019

With this expansion total capacity of the company would be 4.3 million tons per annum

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I recently read somewhere that sugar prices have gone up internationally. KCP has a sugar plant in vietnam. Does any one have an idea about sugar prices in Vietnam? have they moved up or not.

Along with that the cement prices have also been increasing in south. If these two are true then it would be helpful for KCP.

Discl :
No investment.

Dont know why KCP is not included in the list below, but hope it should also benefit.
How does 4.3 million tons pa capacity of KCP compare with the capacity of other South based cement plants mentioned in the list ?

Given near-term earnings visibility in South-based cement companies, they could outperform in the short run, according to the Elara Capital.

While southern region witnessed the steepest hike of Rs 30-40 per bag followed by Rs 15-20 per bag hike in the West and Rs 12-15 per bag hike in the East, prices in North and Central region remained flattish during February.

To sweeten it further, power & fuel cost and diesel costs have softened by around 20 percent from their recent high in Q2FY19. Moreover, prices of petcoke, a key input, have come down from peak levels of $120-130 per tonne to $95 per tonne.

Elara Capital has estimated earnings of five south-based cement companies assuming a price hike of Rs 25-40 per bag for the next few quarters. Its analysis indicates that these companiesā€™ EBITDA could increase in the range of 65-145 percent YoY over next few quarters.

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My limited understanding is that Thai smuggling has crashed Vietnam prices.
So much so that the Vietnam sugar manufacturers association cancelled their annual industry event due to lack of money and industry distress.
So any revival in Vietnam sugar business may be take atleast few years.
I could be wrong here thoughā€¦

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pledging is down from 32 lakhs shares to 12000

image

Results are out, nothing substantial

No cash flow statement?

Any following this company? Why all segments are showing losses expect power ?