Force Motors - racing ahead!


(Sarabjeet Singh) #62

This quarter results , maybe market had anticipated this considering the falling price for last few weeks/months

image

Disc : Started accumulating last month only. Happy with results as it gives more time to accumulate at a good price :slight_smile:


(Mridul) #63

A very good interview by Abhay Firodia, which throws light on BSVI/EV, challenges, threats, and the way forward. Not particularly specific to FM, but nevertheless enlightening for auto manufacturers as a whole.


(Mridul) #64

And here is another one with comments from Merc Chief about his doubts and issues regarding EV.


(Sarabjeet Singh) #65

PFB sales data for Force motors for 2016 and 2017. April and May months are missing as I could not download those files from BSE website. If someone has those files archived, please share that data as well.

Though YoY monthly comparison would tell that sales are declining and its still in bad state. However when you look at production data, that might say a different story.
Believing Force Motor management knows their business well, they will produce according to demand expected or advance bookings received. And after an year of decline in production figures, for the first time we see an increase when compared between Dec 2016 and Dec 2017.

Could be a turn around indication, what say ?

Disc : Invested


(Ritesh.udhani) #66

Monthly Numbers.xls (40.5 KB)
I have the number of units.


(Sarabjeet Singh) #67

Thanks Ritesh, even those two months show similar story. Hope this significant increase in production numbers (Dec 2017) is actual turn around going forward.


(jayjain79) #68

if you notice closely,youll see other income as a percentage of operating income being as high as 50 percent to 70 percent over the last 5 years.That’s a red flag certainly.

other income dilema.docx (10.3 KB)


(Sarabjeet Singh) #69

GST cess reduced on Ambulance, cud benefit Force

https://www.indiainfoline.com/article/news-top-story/gst-council-removes-cess-slashes-gst-rates-on-used-cars-118011900336_1.html


(Sarabjeet Singh) #70

Numbers are out and see a positive side from increase in net revenue. Though net profit is impacted due to lower other income. But its good as they will focus on core business to increase the profits and reliance on other income is reducing

image


(Mridul) #71

Tax outgo has incressed by 6 odd cr as well yoy. Last year they just paid less than 1.5cr in tax for the qtr.

Ebitda margins have improved…result is better than last few qtrs in my opinion.

Again, i would like to see segmental breakup, which i am not sure why mgmt insists on not providing. Also, the mgmt seems tight lipped and doesn’t come for interviews or concalls. Hard to get any guidance or future prsopects.


(chets) #72

I would beg to differ. Dec16 numbers are the lowest in the table for a reason.
The company would have throttled production due to demonetization effect anticipating low sales. So any direct comparison with those production figures should be taken with a pinch of salt.


(Sarabjeet Singh) #73

@chets Thanks for highlighting this fact. However the point that I want to convey is if company understands their business well then this increase in production numbers should be taken as a positive factor. As you yourself pointed out that in Dec 2016 they reduced the numbers foreseeing a drop in business. So this time they did the opposite.

Moreover some turnaround is visible from Q3-FY18 results as well.

Disc : Invested and views could be biased. Any counter view is most welcome.


(Sarabjeet Singh) #74

And here you go, sales growth noticed for Jan 2018 as well

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(Sarabjeet Singh) #75


(Sarabjeet Singh) #76

(Sarabjeet Singh) #78

Finally non binding agreement signed few months back getting materialized

Maybe FM had already started working on the plant as their reserves had started coming down and other income(mostly interest or income from investments) in quarterly numbers had been going down.


(Sarabjeet Singh) #79


(Sarabjeet Singh) #80

(Sarabjeet Singh) #81

Disc : Invested and accumulating due to expectations of Gud results with YoY growth going fwd


(Advait) #82

Hi Sarabjeet,

Curious to know your thoughts on Force Motors. Their sales growth has been uninspiring for the past two years and profits are likely to be flat once again at best. While their engine side of business with BMW/Merc seems to be doing well (and has bright future prospects!), their growth in main business seems to be missing. It seems to me that management is not hungry for growth and is content. Also I find information disclosure levels of this company to be poor (No Investor presentation, results con-calls, very basic annual report etc.)

Please correct me if I am missing anything here…

Discl: No longer hold FM, may enter at lower levels