Electric Cars/Bus :: Call it a Disruption?

Hi folks

I have been trying to collate some basic information on the industry and make of an EV. Thought will share some snippets from my notes it might be helpful just in case. I could have organised it better but apologies. And sorry for such a long post.

But the overall train of thought is as follows

Types of EV > systems in EV> difference in EV ICE > Motors > Storage types > Battery as storage > Composition of a typical battery > Types of batteries > Battery Production & Costs > Example of Tesla Batteries > Lithium, Nickel & Cobalt demand > Lithium, Nickel & Cobalt deposits > Suppliers to EVs example > Expected global EV sales & ICE sales


EV industry basically includes 4 types of vehicles:

  1. Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) - only battery operated electric motor
  2. Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) - ICE (primary) and electric motor
  3. Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) - ICE and electric motor (primary)
  4. Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) - Hydrogen operated electric motor

At a high level the following diagram lists the various subsystems involved

The key differentiators from an ICE perspective are the following systems in terms cost of manufacturing.
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A little comparison of different motors, batteries and energy storage systems.

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One of the most critical parts - battery
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Two videos which talks about Teslas is very good

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Cobalt

OEM

Evolution
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There are other aspects such as gearing, charging systems, cooling of batteries etc.

Rgds
Deepak

sources: multiple BCG, McKinsey and other reports, Bloomberg, a 2017 paper on a comprehensive study of EVs, mining websites etc. I have not specifically mentioned each source. apologies.

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China’s EV sales were up almost 120% in Q1 2019 despite subsidy uncertainty. Will be interesting to see if the transition period will see a bumper Q2 as well. Still on track for major increases in sales despite policy adjustment in China.

With crude rising higher, just matter of time when ev picks steam in india too. #battery #lithium #cobalt #graphite

R C Bhargava, chairman of Maruti Suzuku, said while the government wants the auto industry to increasingly move towards electric mobility, there are a series of challenges that come in between for this effort, and the major one is related to affordability of vehicles.

A Rs 5-lakh petrol car may become Rs 9-lakh in the electric version, he said. “Would you buy it then?” Bhargava asked. Maruti Suzuki MD Kenichi Ayukawa said the electric version of a small car may cost up to Rs 12 lakh, considering the present regulatory regime and incentives that the government offers.

Bhargava said assurance about charging infrastructure is critical for adoption of clean vehicles by the masses. However, he said it will be difficult to install, going by the present set-up. “A large proportion of car owners do not park vehicles at home, but outside. Where will they charge vehicles if they are electric? Where is the infrastructure?

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The incredible shrinking EV battery doesn’t just mean cheaper electric passenger cars. It also means all sorts of other vehicles that weren’t previously practical to electrify now are — and beyond proof-of-concept scale, too.

IMG_20190426_195720

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Incredible Shrinking Battery Costs: Electric vehicles crossover point - when EVs are cheaper than their polluting equivalents — was 2026 in 2017, 9 years out; then 2024 in 2018; and now 2022, just 3 years out

On current trends, expect parity next year.

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There is much buzz on FAME and EVs are being launched by many unlisted companies, whether the stability and sustenance will be guaranteed in long run?

As per Niti Aayog, Forecasts indicate that EVs can reach price parity with ICE vehicles by 2024.

Imho, In China and Europe it will be 2021 when EV reaches parity with ICE.

To achieve a connected, convenient, congestion-free, charged, clean and cutting-edge #FutureofMobility for India, #NITIAayog CEO @amitabhk87 lays down a robust six-step action plan.

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4230868-can-expect-oil-prices-coming-years-updated?__twitter_impression=true

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Batteries - Inside out

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Hi Ayush,

Hope you are keeping well!

We follow the EV adoption cycle closely.

Definitely public transport buses are low hanging fruit and these will be “early conversions”.

Niti Aayog is also pursuing a vision of sale of Electric 2 and 3 wheelers by 2025:

Here is a March Press Note from the Government of India whihc outlines its current E-Mobility vision:

Mobility Solutions get a boost

National Mission on Transformative Mobility and Battery Storage approved by Cabinet Mission to promote Clean, Connected, Shared and Holistic Mobility Initiatives Phased Manufacturing Programmes to be launched for batteries and electric vehicle components

The Union Cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has approved:

  1. Setting up of a National Mission on Transformative Mobility and Battery Storage, to drive clean, connected, shared, sustainable and holistic mobility initiatives;

  2. Phased Manufacturing Programme (PMP) valid for 5 years till 2024 to support setting up of a few large-scale, export-competitive integrated batteries and cell-manufacturing Giga plants in India.

  3. Creation of a PMP valid for 5 years till 2024 to localize production across the entire Electric Vehicles value chain.

Both PMP schemes will be finalised by the National Mission on Transformative Mobility and Battery Storage.

National Mission on Transformative Mobility and Storage:

Composition:

  • The multi-disciplinary “National Mission on Transformative Mobility and Battery Storage” with an Inter-Ministerial Steering Committee will be chaired by CEO NITI Aayog.

  • The Steering Committee will be comprised of Secretaries from Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Ministry of Power, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Department of Science and Technology, Department of Heavy Industry, Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade, and Director General, Bureau of Industrial Standards.

Role:

  • The Mission will recommend and drive the strategies for transformative mobility and Phased Manufacturing Programmes for EVs, EV Components and Batteries.

  • A Phased Manufacturing Program (PMP) will be launched to localize production across the entire EV value chain. The National Mission on Transformative Mobility and Battery Storage will determine the contours of PMP, and will finalise the details of such a program.

  • The details of the value addition that can be achieved with each phase of localisation will be finalised by the Mission with a clear Make in India strategy for the electric vehicle components as well as battery.

  • The Mission will coordinate with key stakeholders in Ministries/ Departments and the states to integrate various initiatives to transform mobility in India.

Roadmaps:

  • A phased roadmap to implement battery manufacturing at Giga-scale will be considered with initial focus on large-scale module and pack assembly plants by 2019-20, followed by integrated cell manufacturing by 2021-22.

  • Details of the PMP for Batteries shall be formulated by the Mission. The Mission will ensure holistic and comprehensive growth of the battery manufacturing industry in India.

  • The Mission will prepare the necessary roadmap that will enable India to leverage upon its size and scale to produce innovative, competitive multi-modal mobility solutions that can be deployed globally in diverse contexts.

  • The Mission will define the roadmap for transformative mobility in “New India” by introducing a sustainable mobility ecosystem and fostering Make-in-India to boost domestic manufacturing and employment generation in the country.

Impact:

  • The Mission will drive mobility solutions that will bring in significant benefits to the industry, economy and country.

  • These solutions will help improve air quality in cities along with reducing India’s oil import dependence and enhance the uptake of renewable energy and storage solutions.

  • The Mission will lay down the strategy and roadmap which will enable India to leverage upon its size and scale to develop a competitive domestic manufacturing ecosystem for electric mobility.

  • The actions in this regard will benefit all citizens as the aim is to promote ‘Ease of Living’ and enhance the quality of life of our citizens and also provide employment opportunities through ‘Make-in-India’ across a range of skillsets.

Background:

During the Global Mobility Summit held in September 2018, Prime Minister had outlined the vision for the future of mobility in India based on 7 C’s which are Common, Connected, Convenient, Congestion-free, Charged, Clean and Cutting-edge mobility. Mobility has the potential to drive the economy forward and positively impact the lives of citizens both in urban and rural areas.

Affordable, accessible, inclusive and safe mobility solutions are primary strategic levers for rapid economic development and improving ‘Ease of Living’. Shared, connected and clean mobility solutions are increasingly becoming the key principles of effective mobility solutions across the world. Given its commitment to climate goals, India needs to adopt effective strategies to place itself as a key driver of the mobility revolution in the world.

Hence, there was a need felt to establish a dedicated multi-disciplinary Mission that will facilitate cooperative federalism, extensive stakeholder and inter-ministerial consultations and implement end-to-end policy framework for transforming the mobility landscape with particular focus on:

  1.     Manufacturing
    
  2.     Specification & standards
    
  3.     Fiscal incentives
    
  4.     Overall demand creation and projections
    
  5.     Regulatory framework
    
  6.     Research & Development
    

These initiatives will pay significant dividends to a rapidly urbanising India in the decades to come.

UNQUOTE

Best regards,

Aniket.

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CB Insights
CB-Insights_Electric-Car-Race.pdf (1.1 MB)

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Interesting News …

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-25/india-s-rickshaws-outnumber-china-s-electric-vehicles

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Hi

Hyundai now finally announces a “soon to be launched” electric car in India - The Hyundai Kona.

Its quite steeply priced ~25L is what the rumors say. Offered only in a few cities. Launch around mid July.

Lets see how it goes.

Rgds

Looking at the wider schema of things, it appears things are not so favorable for EV in the near future. Also, personally, we’ve seen multiple hype cycles for “Robots”, “EV”, “Cryptos”.

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