Electric Cars/Bus :: Call it a Disruption?


(sunnysachdeva) #1

Well we all know electric cars are present in India but could not catch the momentum yet. Recently I watched AAP KI ADALAT show where current transport minister Mr Nitin Gadkari said that within 2 years there is going to be massive govt initiatives to sue electric cars. This calls for major facelift in the entire eco system. Like CNG stations there might be electric charging stations.

My intention behind posting this thread is that I want to understand from the experienced person in this forum that can we call electric cars a disruption in automobiles. Also if electric cars could be next big things then , what companies could get the major pie of the share.(ex M&M which has Reva)

Relaated Links:-

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-08-26/news/65886430_1_existing-buses-such-buses-nitin-gadkari


Amararaja Batteries Limited: Powering Ahead
Bhansali Engineering Polymers - An Import Substitution Story!
(Nikhil Jain) #2

I see electric battery as more of an evolution towards which the whole industry may have to move in future. It is absolutely the sensible alternative but cannot be the only one.

As long as there is no way to instantly charge your electric battery at the recharging stations it will not have absolute monopoly.

It will probably be the fuel of choice but other fuels will continue to be in use until we can refill electric battery instantly.


(Nityanand) #3

The charging times are coming down, look at Tesla Cars. They have normal charging time of 1 hour for 29 miles and with supercharge you can do charging for 170 miles in 30 minutes. IMHO the electric cars are going to be the game changer.


(sunnysachdeva) #4

Apart from the entire ecosystem upgrade , question is does indian manufacturers are ready for it. One of the major part in the electric car would be Lithiun Ion battery. ISRO is working in direction and has provided the battery in the bus which was gifted today to Parliament.

Tesla is the supreme player in this. Toyota is another player. For Indian companies, can Amara raja scale is something that needs to be investigated.


(sandeep17) #5

I agree - getting the right solution in place to get the batteries instantly charged would be the turning point. Unless and until the government figures out a way to leverage the existing ecosystem for the recharging process, getting mass usage for electric cars will be a huge challenge. We need to reach a point where I can go to a charging station and get my kit replaced with a charged one and continue with my journey.

But I agree that this is the next big thing. Probably will take 10-15 years.


(Nikhil Jain) #6

The cost of imported Li-ion batteries is very high when compared to indigenous ones. So it is very important that we look for domestic candidates very carefully.

If govt/ISRO shares the current process with domestic makers (last I heard, govt/ISRO is patenting the process), electric battery will be just a commodity. If someone like Amara Raja can come out with own and better (cheaper) version, then we may actually have a winner.


(hemavanteru) #7

electro therm is also made presentation on electric vehicles.


(Chintan) #8

I would not be surprised if Tesla sets up a factory in India. Like sandeep17 said, Tesla plans to have stations in US (starting in CA) which replace your battery with a charged one in a couple of minutes. Network effect would be huge if this takes off. Remains to be seen how economically viable this seems after the cheap credit stops sloshing around. Electric buses being charged at designated bus stations seems more feasible for starters.


(Deepak Venkatesh) #9

Hi

Had posted in the wrong thread. Continuing here.

There is a nice article shared by Abhishek Basumallick.

From London Metal exchange


Out of these 3 only Nickel is traded on MCX. Lithium perhaps is not traded anywhere worldwide. Not sure of this data point.

Regards
Deepak


(biju john) #10

Thanks for starting this thread. This could be the area one should invest for the future. Exide has an arrangement with a chinese company for technology transfer for Lithium batteries. Amararrajas technology partner Johnson controls has the technology for Lithium batteries. They had a joint venture in France which has now been dissolved. Since both the manufacturers have the marketing and service setup, they could ideally takeover this business also. Exide also has new technology in the lead-acid space ,which is used in the mild-hybrid cars introduced like the ciaz-diesel. I could see in China most of the two wheelers have moved to the electric space. Most street corners have a sales and service outlet for these. Invariable i see mostly it is the battery that is being serviced/replaced.
Another player that iam betting in electric mobility both in terms of battery technology and in the electric motor plus all the electronics is Bosch limited. They have about 10 entities in India and only one is listed. My doubt is if all the technology will come in the listed one.
Iam invested in all the three discussed above as a basket to enter new world of electric mobility.


(Gaurav Agarwal) #11

I am just curious, do you live in China? Do we have some data on it?

How do you see service space effected in India, if we move to electric in next 3-4 years?

Are you trying to say that Bosch has 10 companies in India and only one is listed or other 10 are subsidiaries of listed Bosch.

Do we have some listed electric player in Chinese Stock exchange?

I asked lot of questions, hope you will be patient in reading and answering them. Thanks


#12

IMHO, it may be a little too early for electric vehicles to become a mass market product, though it will happen for sure eventually.

As with most disruptive technologies, it’s the new players which lead rather than existing ones.


(biju john) #13

I dont work in China, but spent close to 3 months. Most of my observations were on my evening walks looking for elusive place which could serve some kind of home food… Even small tricycles were on battery. These are scooters mainly running on battery. Most workers come to work on these electric scooters. There were some bikes running on petrol and there are bike taxis, although i believe they are illegal. However what i saw was less of Maruti type small cars and most managers came in mid sized sedans/suvs. China is also on a drive to bring in electric cars. Transport between cities is on high speed rail network.
The battery is core to the scooter and i believe the recurring costs could be huge, similar to the battery replacement to the inverter at home. A lot of parts are reduced especially the engine and the gear box. Most of the service will be related to the battery and electronics.
The Bosch Group operates in India through nine companies, viz, Bosch Limited, Bosch Chassis Systems India Limited, Bosch Rexroth India Limited, Bosch Engineering and Business Solutions Private Limited, Bosch Automotive Electronics India Private Limited, Bosch Electrical Drives India Private Limited, BSH Home Appliancces. Bosch limited is the listed one and makes equipment related to gasoline and diesel systems like fuel injection pumps etc. They will be developing new technology for the country’s shift from BS4 to BS6 in 2020. This division is also into solar equipment business.


(biju john) #14

Sorry missed out, the other units of bosch are not subsidaries of the listed one.


(Deepak Venkatesh) #15

Hi

Some more pointers on Cobalt.

  1. India has no deposits of Co. A couple of companies (not listed I believe) import Co from Congo and refine it.

  2. Global producers

    Congo produces over 66,000 MT

  3. The battery industry uses more than 40% of the Co produced globally.

  4. Almost 95% of Co comes as a by product of Ni or Cu.

  5. 7% of revenues of a Ni producer are contributed by Co.

  6. There is a tremendous amount of Co available at the identified places (estimated to last for more than a century without doing any exploration). So price is not governed by deposit limitations.

  7. The problem is that where Co is present ie the 2 Congos, the accessibility is a major concern and problems in Congo.

  8. India does not produce even 50 MT of Co in a year.

  9. Whatever little Co India has is found in Orissa, Jharkhand and Nagaland

  10. India does not extract any Co at all from its deposits

  11. Indian companies refine Co which is imported from Congo ~3000 T per year. None are listed as per my understanding.

  12. I am afraid that China has both Co and Li to a great extent. It also figures as the top 10 producers of Ni. India is nowhere.

I agree as Dheeraj said its still a long way to go before we actually have many EVs running around on our roads. Let us see what the future holds.

Regards
Deepak


(Gaurav Agarwal) #16

Could you take any picture of these electric scooters? :slight_smile:

Any company in Chinese listed space in electric cars?


(Gaurav Agarwal) #17

I think we have some good quality graphite producers in India. Li-ion battery need 100% graphite Anode. We have recently seen a bull run in Graphite India & Heg but they are into Graphite anode production for Electric Arc Furnace.

Another company is Himadri Speciality Chemical, I read somewhere recently that they have a production facility in China and are tying to push their Anodes to Chinese manufacturer.


(shadd) #18

Rain Industries also produces electrode which are used for production of lithium ion batteries.
Product which is similar to Himadri speciality chemicals apart from Calcinised petroleum coke


#19

Nice thinking of tracing the value chain back to the raw materials.

Your post spurred me to think of battery recycling as a partial alternative to the growing demand of battery raw material. I found here that there are a few listed companies - Exide, Gravitas, Johnson Controls which are all involved in the battery recycling space. The report also says that recycling is bound to grow at the pace of 11% YoY until 2021. Which makes sense considering that not enough batteries have been sold yet for it to pick up pace. Which also means that the first industry to move might be the mining/import industry, followed by the battery manufacturers and finally the recyclers.


(biju john) #20

BYD is a popular car manufacturer in China and some of their models look like popular japanese models. They are also into the electric car and bus space and manufacture quite a bit. They have entered in the Indian electric bus segment in collaboration with Goldstone tech and have got a few orders. They also have the technology for the batteries. They could right away enter the electric car segment space if the infrastructure is ready. BYD cars in china are cheaper than Japanese cars with same specs.
Looks like all the raw materials for the batteries will have to be imported,which would defeat the purpose of reducing the import bill of fossil fuels. Once a critical mass is reached i think the recycling would cater to demand.