Electric Cars/Bus :: Call it a Disruption?

Running on Kolkata road, availing frequently.

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Good article. I think given the air pollution, E Buses would get a quick adoption by the Government…they will show that they have done something for public health (Delhi government advertising that they will give the largest order). Plus given the high subsidy under FAME policy of government, there is a tailwind.

Perhaps, we should also have a thread on the companies mentioned in the article

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Interesting report on how Delhi Govt is conducting rigorous study before selecting the EV Bus model/manufacturer. Expects to order 1000 plus buses.

Good. Arnd 8cr cars sold in 2018 worldwide. In arnd 1 Terawatt hr annual capacity projected for 2023, we can have,

  1. 5 cr. 20kwh battery cars or
  2. 3.3 cr. 30kwh battery cars or
  3. 1.65 cr. 60kwh battery cars.

Meaning ev future and end of ice engine coming soon.

BYD COMPANY LIMITED VOLUNTARY ANNOUNCEMENT SALES VOLUME FOR MARCH 2019

apna time aayega…

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India is just nowhere… The only thing India has done is to put a year 2030. Which will end up as a joke…no concrete action taken on any implementation as yet…

Overall growth not as high as all the buzz around EV. Also notable is 40% of sales happening in March. Year end push or channel stuffing?

China adopts calendar financial year. So this data is for the first three months.

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Look at de growth of ICE cars and then see growth of ev…This is happening when auto industry is going through slow down…

China has built whole supply chain across ev right from mining, chemicals, technology, sourcing, battery recycling, ev push, subsidies etc…China has a comprehensive ev policy and they are executing on it. India has not yet signed good prospective lithium mines…China has 80-90% coverage on all lithium mines follwed by US and Europe. India is no where to be seen…india is after bolivia for lithium mines where nobody is going…Ev growth is really strong in china…but real feeler in ev metals share price will not be felt for next 3-5 years as world growth need to pick up and demand to come from other places like India, US and Europe…ev mines are less and few especially with battery grade quality and china has wholesole monopoly on most mines.

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For all of your benefit…Lithium is sourced from 2 kind of mine operations

a) hard rock mines resulting in lithium hydroxide chemical - Australia, US hard rock mines resulting in spodumene production…litium oxide

b) Brines resulting in lithium carbonate chemicals - Argentina, Chile, Bolivia

Lithium hydroxide is better suited for quality batteries however it is difficult to produce and more costly to mine…lithium carbonate needs lot of water in operation and is slightly cheapee operation than hard rock. However, the chemical Li carb is not best fit for use in batteries. Sometimes there is additional cost to convert li car to li hyd to use in battery operation…Most of processing chemical plants are in China…some are coming in Perth australia…Big miners with integrated battery chemical processing will be the big ones to watch out…in india we do not see any at this point but hopefully some big mining players in india will venture into it at some point in future, hopefully not long…India needs to get sourcing deals in Australia and South America to have some flexibility in sourcing…brine water consumption is a big issue resulting in lithium prod disruptions and also policies in some of those countries…Key players in India will be mahindra, vedanta, hindcopper, reliance (they will get into ev supply chain for sure bcoz of huge demand in India), tata power etc…its still a long shot though…

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EV vs ICE industry structure …

EU and China are aggressively moving into EV …

Now if look at Oil -

US , Russia , Middle east , South america and to extent part of Africa are big suppliers

Current Big consumers/ importers are China , EU and India to some extent Japan/ korea .

If two big importers China and EU move out of market … Imagine what will bargaining power of rest of players …

India probably is betting on this game . It will play EV game partially as threat ( also may be localised to few metros ) For rest it will go with ICE

Another possibility is India can adopt Road chargers so that battery cost is minimised … ie Unlike trams of yester years with over head electric cables , we will have roads that can charge vehicles in metros …

Lot of possibilities exist …

Hi

An interesting report on the auto component industry by a leading consulting firm. Pasting some key exhibits.

ACMA Vertical_Onscreen_Final.pdf (1.8 MB)

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