I have in the past tracked and ridden Avanti stock and one thing comes out very clearly in the psychology surrounding the price movements. This is one stock that goes to the full movements of pendulum in terms of overoptimism to over pessimism. Pre split when the stock price went up to 2800-2900 levels there seemed to be a lot of euphoria and fanfare. Now with stock price having corrected more than 50% from the top the tones have changed to more guarded tones.
In the current market mood, if q1 and q2 results dont match up to expectations (and in all likelihood looking at blockbuster comparable quarters difficult to match up), there could be severe cuts. One might argue that currently also stock has corrected almost 50-60% from top.
It is again in my watchlist as it remains a fantastic management and dominant player. But if q1 fy 19 results were to show a degrowth of say 20-30-40% as compared to q1 fy 18, and the way markets are nervous as they are, I think there could be more cuts. This is just my guess and I might be way off the mark but I feel in the current market mood discretion might be better than valour.
What I like about the company is that once we get stock price aligning with our investment thesis, one can bet big on this one as other parameters of a good company are already there in terms of management pedigree, track record, market dominance, balance sheet strength etc. When to pull the trigger is oneās own call but I prefer to wait and watch.
All the investors who are spreading panic. To all of them-Please go through Howard Marks recent interview in CNBC and one comment he made
The real big āsafeā money lies in not buying the loved ones even after they have gone up a lot but buying the unloved unliked ones when no one wants to touch it and are available for great bargains - HM
We need to learn a lot. I know some of the noted investors in Value Pikcr forum were very scary on Pharma few months back but completely changed as soon as Sun cleared Halol
I had speculated this sometime back in this, this and this post. I expected a correction when de-growth happened but didnāt expect this sort of carnage before the event. Markets sure do price the worst.
Its comforting to see flat data too. As per many of the articles or feedback from some members, it was expected that industry might be negative for this season. And this has been a big risk for the company given the fragility of the industry.
Still one should give time and look at coming months data which are the key months for the industry
Highlights of MDA-AR18:
*Global seafood production has increased by 1.4%.Global seafood food consumption has increased by 1%.Which means production is more than consumption in present situation.However,itās not necessary that this mismatch should continue ahead.
*This mismatch could have been contributed by Extended US winter + Many new competitors entering into the market.
*Decreased demands in US has led to decreased shrimp prices in US and in a chain to domestic markets also.However, Christmas and New yearās are expected to be turnaround here
*Of the total shrimp export in World,41% is from India.This is very good sign for Investors.This could be due to long seacoast line and Quality productions by Avanti on largescale.
*Expansion plan of 175000 MT @ Bandapuram has been done and production started from march18
*Threats like volatility in prices,antidumping duty,seasonal changes are going to be there but can change with time.
*Avanti expects 5-10% growth till March 2019.
Conclusion : Overall company is definitely good if we look at its past.Its market crash is not due to any fraud or scam but due to environmental change, which is temporary factor in my opinion.Demand-supply mismatch is single thing which could be considered as red flag for Avanti @ present.
(Final decision of investing or not should be on your own analysis.disc:10% of PF since before crash)
Problem with this company is , since the float is low, there is no seller even if you want to buy small quantity say 100 shares, forget about larger quantities.
Itās not about the company Coastal Corporation, itās about the shrimp industry. The industry may be going through tough times but still the numbers are good.
the volumes must have gone down , but the margins are pretty exceptional. perhaps due to the farm gate shrimp prices crashing in India. if Avanti can give growth in shrimp exports( as per management claims) alng with such great margins, results of shrimp processing division may give us a pleasant surprise.
Shrimp processing is hardly 20% of Topline and 13% of bottomline. Best I think capacity increases by 15% this year.
Coastal corporation results are simply inflated by change in Inventory (increase). Adjusting for that gives a 25% decrease in PAT on YoY basis.
Topline dips by 30%!
