I have in the past tracked and ridden Avanti stock and one thing comes out very clearly in the psychology surrounding the price movements. This is one stock that goes to the full movements of pendulum in terms of overoptimism to over pessimism. Pre split when the stock price went up to 2800-2900 levels there seemed to be a lot of euphoria and fanfare. Now with stock price having corrected more than 50% from the top the tones have changed to more guarded tones.
In the current market mood, if q1 and q2 results dont match up to expectations (and in all likelihood looking at blockbuster comparable quarters difficult to match up), there could be severe cuts. One might argue that currently also stock has corrected almost 50-60% from top.
It is again in my watchlist as it remains a fantastic management and dominant player. But if q1 fy 19 results were to show a degrowth of say 20-30-40% as compared to q1 fy 18, and the way markets are nervous as they are, I think there could be more cuts. This is just my guess and I might be way off the mark but I feel in the current market mood discretion might be better than valour.
What I like about the company is that once we get stock price aligning with our investment thesis, one can bet big on this one as other parameters of a good company are already there in terms of management pedigree, track record, market dominance, balance sheet strength etc. When to pull the trigger is one’s own call but I prefer to wait and watch.