The following is some research I did on the sector based on export data for Marine Products. My interpretations are inline.
The trend that started in FY10 has continued to grow by value and volume - now for the 9th year running with just one year (FY16) dipping.
The realisations as well went up during the same time from 142/kg to Rs.333/kg in the current year. However prices have been pretty flat last 3 years.
FY17 and FY18 growth is 27% and 20% - Pretty phenomenal on a large base - mostly driven by volume growth of 21% each year.
The seasonality of the business can be seen in these two charts -
Export volumes rise in Q2 and peak in Q3 every year.
Realisations as well follow the same trend.
Looking at the last several quarters, Q3 and Q4 FY18 have shown the lowest growth - 15% and 10% - This is a cause for concern.
Zooming in further on Q4, FY18 - Value has grown barely in the double digit - Volume has grown in single digit. If realisation was flat, value would have grown in single-digit too.
There are some early signs that what we may be seeing in FY18 could be peak earnings. Next two quarters should be watched very carefully.