Waaree Energies Ltd. - Is it just the Dawn?

Summary of Waaree Energies Limited based on the recent concall transcript :
Disclaimer : Used LLM model to generate the summary

1. Company Business and Key Clients:

  • Business: Waaree Energies is primarily a solar energy company involved in the manufacturing of solar PV modules, EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) services, and has forayed into broader energy transition areas like green hydrogen and battery storage.
  • Products & Services:
    • Solar PV modules (various types, including standard, BIPV, flexible, TOPCon, HJT)
    • EPC services for rooftop and floating solar projects
    • Retail solar solutions
    • Foraying into Hydrogen (electrolyser manufacturing)
    • Foraying into Battery Energy Storage Systems.
  • Key Clients: The company has a diversified mix of customers including:
    • Utilities
    • Commercial and Industrial customers
    • Retail customers through channel partners/franchisees
    • Export customers.

2. Product and Geographical Mix (as part of Total Revenue):

  • Product Mix: The transcript doesn’t provide specific breakdowns of revenue by module type (e.g., standard vs. BIPV), but it emphasizes that the standard black rectangular modules are their staple offering while they are expanding into newer tech/offering.
  • Geographical Mix (as of September 2024):
    • Domestic (India): 27.5% of revenue
    • Overseas: 72.5% of revenue.
    • The geographical mix was different last year where exports contributed around 60% and domestic around 40%, which has been reversed this year.

3. Sentiment Analysis of Management’s Perspective:

  • Overall Tone: The management’s tone is highly positive, optimistic, and confident about the future of the solar industry and Waaree’s position within it. They consistently emphasize strong demand drivers, the company’s capabilities, and its growth potential. They have shown strong commitment to growth, execution excellence, and manufacturing excellence.
  • Key Positive Words and Phrases:
    • “Multi-decadal growth story”
    • “Strong order book”
    • “Diversified customer base”
    • “Very, very strong fundamentals”
    • “Robust manufacturing footprint”
    • “Very excited” about current and future initiatives.
    • “Agile” in their strategy in adjusting to market dynamic.
    • “Committed” to the US market.
    • “Robust” capacity additions in place for manufacturing.
  • Areas of Cautious Optimism:
    • They acknowledge market fluctuations.
    • They highlight need of clarity on IRA policies of the US.
    • They are wary of impact of change of dispensation in the US market.
    • They express that their current capacity utilization is not due to lack of demand, but due to their product and manufacturing strategy.

4. Key Financial Metrics (as mentioned in transcript):

  • Capacity:
    • Current Module Capacity: 12 GW (India), 1.6 GW (USA)
    • Planned Module Capacity by FY27: 21 GW (India), 1.6 GW (USA) and more under evaluation
    • Current Cell Capacity: 5.4 GW (India) - in commissioning.
    • Planned Cell Capacity (India): 11 GW
    • Planned Cell Capacity (USA): Under evaluation, potentially 5 GW
  • Capacity Utilization:
    • Current range: 50-60%
    • Targeted Range after maturation: 70-80% (Modules), 60-80% (Cells)
  • Sales Growth:
    • Q2 FY25 Revenue: INR 36,634.63 million (2.95% increase YoY)
    • H1 FY25 Revenue: INR 71,598.76 million (2.67% increase YoY)
  • Volume Growth:
    • H1 Production: 3.3 GW, compared to 4.8 GW for FY24.
  • EBITDA:
    • Q2 FY25 EBITDA: INR 6,139.37 million (14% increase YoY) - EBITDA margin of 16.76%
    • H1 FY25 EBITDA: INR 12,539.26 million (14.74% increase YoY)- EBITDA margin of 17.51%
  • Net Profit:
    • Q2 FY25 Profit after tax: INR 3,756.59 million (17.35% increase YoY)
    • H1 FY25 Profit after tax: INR 7,767.84 million (17.98% increase YoY)
  • Pricing (approximate ballpark):
    • US Module Price: ~$0.24/watt (approaching)
    • Indian Module Price: ~$0.17/watt (approaching)

5. Significant Events:

  • US Factory Nearing Completion: Commercial production expected soon.
  • 5.4 GW Cell Facility Commissioning: Dry runs underway, commercial operations beginning mid-December.
  • 6 GW Integrated Facility in Odisha: Land acquisition and design in advanced stages, commercial operations likely in FY27.
  • Board Sanction of INR 600 Crores: for renewable power infrastructure, connectivity and bidding for IPP projects.

6. New Product/Service Launch, Expansion Plans, Capex:

  • New Business Focus: The company is actively foraying into
    • Green hydrogen (electrolyser manufacturing plan in advanced stages)
    • Battery energy storage systems
    • Renewable power infrastructure, connectivity and bidding for IPP projects.
  • Capacity Expansion: Significant capacity additions planned across India and the USA for modules and cells.
  • Capex announcement: INR 600 crore of Capex for Renewable power infrastructure.

7. Business Operation Challenges, Threats, Concerns:

  • US Policy Uncertainty: The change of political landscape in the US and its possible impact on the policies is a concern. The management has indicated that they will wait for clarity on the new political regime’s stand on IRA before investing in future capacities in USA.
  • Pricing Pressure: Module prices are declining both in the US and India. However, it has been noted that the input prices are also declining. The management is focusing on improving their margins.
  • Integration Challenges: Fully integrating new cell manufacturing and other businesses poses execution risk and requires focused efforts to achieve targeted efficiencies and utilization rates.

8. Headwinds and Tailwinds:

  • Tailwinds:
    • Strong demand drivers due to solar being the lowest cost energy and diversification of supply chain.
    • Government targets and policies in India for renewable energy (500 GW goal by 2030, Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana).
    • Growth in the US market, even in Republican states.
    • Diversification of supply chains and reduced reliance on China is leading to growth in India.
  • Headwinds:
    • Fluctuations in prices and margin pressure due to continuous decline in solar cell and module prices.
    • Policy uncertainty in US in view of change of dispensation.

9. Management’s Guidance and Future Outlook:

  • Guidance:
    • Focus on strong EBITDA by focusing on manufacturing footprint completion.
    • Ramp up cell manufacturing capacity to boost profitability.
    • Expect higher utilization rates.
    • Growth of retail segment and overall sales through channel partners.
    • Continue expansion and growth trajectory in the US and Indian markets.
  • Overall Future Outlook: Management is highly optimistic about the long-term prospects of the solar industry and Waaree’s role in it. They foresee a “multi-decadal growth story” and are positioning Waaree as a key player in the broader energy transition. They aim for integrated manufacturing capabilities and a diversified business portfolio and are very bullish about their future.

In Summary:

Waaree Energies is pursuing an aggressive growth strategy with substantial investments in manufacturing capacity expansion and the pursuit of newer areas of business like green hydrogen, battery storage, and renewable power infrastructure. While navigating a fluctuating global market and policy uncertainties, the company is confident in its ability to maintain its position in the industry and achieve its long-term objectives.

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Hi Any thoughts on the impact of Trump energy policy on the Solar Panel exporters to the USA - though he may add more tariffs to the other South east Asian countries and China but there is a threat of disruption for companies like Waaree Energies - please guide - Waaree Energies Share In Focus; Trump’s Comment on Renewable Energy Projects

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The resignation of CFO Dilip Panjwani has no connection with Waaree Energies. It is important to note that Waaree Renewables Technologies Limited and Waaree Energies are two distinct entities.

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Demand of domestic cell is expected to see exponential growth over module manufacturer over the next coming years… kotak equities

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waaree aquires
91ada58d-46aa-40f0-b425-4ac8ccd28cf6.pdf (211.4 KB)

Price seems really cheap like just over 1.2 crore per MW. Wondering why the company was sold for so low?
Revenue multiple wise looks more reasonable especially assuming most of the project(s) are still under implementation.

Disc: Have exited completely as i was sitting on very good profits and not very confident on the long term prospects

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If you check the agreement to acquire, EGPIPL doesn’t own 100% of their renewable energy power plants. It mentions that they are jointly held with a partner (no details on how much and which though). So they aren’t buying full ownership of 640MW.

If you check the last row - FY24, their “partner” had a turnover of 271cr while EGPIPL had a turnover of 112cr from the jointly held projects (despite the disclosure stating that EGPIPL is the majority owner of these jointly owned projects which is weird - only way I can interpret it is the partner put up majority of the funding for the projects but these means Waree will acquire projects where they won’t even get a majority share of turnover)

For a benchmark, I had recently analyzed ACME Solar Holdings RHP and they also sold off some of their older assets to private equity funds. The sale consideration amount was 1149 cr (as per RHP) for 369MW (as per media reports, not mentioned in RHP) and entire portfolio was solar.

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