The harsh portfolio!

Thanks for your comments, although I am not sure whats your point. Also congratulations for your fantastic returns :slight_smile:
The point of my investing process can be summarized by the comment made by @Vivek_Singh

I use a lot of sources for data mining (screener, tikr, tijorifinance, EPFO, eaindustry.nic.in, etc.).
Screener’s alert feature is very useful for setting valuation alerts. I also have very good friends like @rajanprabu who create automated alert systems for the stocks we track. These are generally more sophisticated alerts (like EV/sales going below certain moving threshold, etc.).
On timing and other things, these are very fluid topics. I try to do my best.

Yes, it is an issue. But I cannot control it except with position sizing and trying not to overpay. While accepting governance issues, I still want to participate in their growth opportunity. Its a very very good business.

How does it matter? I find labeling very counter productive, you dont gain anything but it often messes with your mind when you have to take certain contra calls which goes against whatever label you put on yourself.

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It was a fairly straight forward question, and I am sure he wanted to know because it helps to know the answer. And from what I have read in this thread, you seem to base your investments on the businesses, valuations, and look at price in the context of the business while initiating positions, so does that not make you a fundamental investor? Dr. Hitesh is a FA+TA practitioner, who differentiates between his trades.

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I appreciate the response.

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Hi Harsh

Could you pls help with current business scenario on agrochem companies with India and well as global exposure (UPL, Sharda, Etc.)

Is the bottom in sight (1-2 quarter) or it could take longer?

Thanks in advance

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Hii Harsh!!! Many many thanks for putting such a marvellous thread.My question is
1.In Avanti feeds concall,they have mentioned that they are not able to pass the raw material increase price to farmers.How do you see this business now and in coming years?
2.How do you see Punjab chemical performing in upcoming quarters?

I have a slightly unconventional thought process on this. Any activity aiming to make future predictions is speculation. In my line of work, I create mathematical models projecting how climate change might affect water resources over the next 50 to 100 years. So you could say I’m a full-on speculator. I guess you could call me an “investor” if you really wanted to, but it doesn’t quite capture what I do.

Very hard to answer this question. I did some work on previous agchem downcycles which I am sharing below, maybe it can add some value.

Analysis of downcycles (FY09, FY16) – 23.06.2023
Underlying logic is when FAO food price index goes down sharply, farmers use less pesticides. Let’s see this with data of Sharda Cropchem and PI Industries. I have excluded UPL as they have kept growing in downcycles by acquisition

In 2009, FAO food price index dropped by 22%. This impacted sales growth of PIIND and Sharda in FY10. FY10 sales growth for PIIND declined to 5% (vs 25% in FY09 & 31% in FY11). The effect was more stark on Sharda, whose FY10 sales declined by 26% (vs 25% growth in FY11). However, both companies had a very clear revival in growth rates in FY11 as food prices recovered very quickly.

The next major downcycle was in 2015 where FAO food price index dropped by 19%. The impact this time around was more on PIIND, whose revenue growth rate in FY16 declined to 8% (vs 22% in FY15 and 9% in FY17). Sales growth for PIIND only recovered in FY19. Sharda managed this downcycle better, but their FY16 sales growth declined to 15% (vs 34% in FY15 and 14% in FY17). Their sales growth recovered in FY18.

Current scenario


This time around, food prices peaked in May 2022 and have been showing decline for the last 1-year. It’s down by 21% already but hasn’t come down below 100, where in the past they have bottomed out. Given how high food prices became, recovery this time around can be prolonged.

Jan 2024 food prices are still 118 (very high by historical standards). So its hard to call it a bottom.

Avanti has struggled in past couple of years to pass on wheat and soya price increase because government regulated the final feed prices. Avanti nos are not really bad, look at other feed cos to see the carnage happening in this space (waterbase in losses). Avanti is a clear cut leader.
As explained in my agchem analysis above, we are coming out of a huge upcycle. I am personally still bullish on Punjab and have added shares in the last 30 days. I feel they have managed the whole downturn quite well, recovering their margins when most technical manufacturers are really struggling.