The Anti-Portfolio

[souravm]

Hello @vikas_sinha,

I have seen your post in Frontier Spring Ltd. Do you still hold it / have any view on that considering the Railway Capex? Or have you thought of any proxy for Railway Capex

Thanks

[Rax]

@vikas_sinha
Having read your initial post, I could somewhat relate to lot of actions taken by you and further there is no holy bible to the market madness. I have very well burned my hands in Sanwariya and am continuing to hold YesBank, IndiaBulls, CoffeeDay Ent etc.
Would appreciate your view on my portfolio here
https://forum.valuepickr.com/t/my-perpetual-risky-portfolio/91971

[vikas_sinha]

Corporate governance issues, too much remuneration, RPTs like rental, relative appointees, hence sold off at first rebalancing instance. Railway capex is not focused on its rolling stock but other areas signaling, track, DFC etc. Frontier has much competition and is among several vendors for its product range.

I do not have any view on railway capex. Electrification is 95% over, track work is at usual pace, no special acceleration, and the pie is split among many vendors, and many of these vendors have railways only as a small part of their overall biz.

[vikas_sinha]

Latest folio status:

No change since last report, still 3% down since April 2022 peak but 3% up YoY.

Ujjivan fin was entered in feb, bit too soon but averaged both up and down. Coastal has fallen bit fast, also KPI recently due to solar duties. Krsnaa is also bit weak. Ugro, Kilpest and Affle are just sideways.

Sold off Laurus and Tips Films (after waiting for T2T to end). Loaded up on all the fallen and weak ones, except Affle. Mostly Ugro and Kilpest. Now only 15 holdings, target is to get closer to 12 mark.

CAGR is bit off the mark due to creating this folio at small cap peak (when trying to maintain records across ICICIdirect and Zerodha at time of shifting account in jan 2018). Value-research folio service does not account for (de)mergers, rights etc.

Laurus got boring to hold, it had already been reduced to the smallest size.

Overall only added tiny bit of Sovereign Gold bonds on diwali due to parental pressure since they were funding

Also bought a little from dividends accumulated lying in bank. Already biggest weight ~40% in financials since 2 quarters. Trading flat for past year, not bad when small-cap index is down. Hardly anything is over year old, except Shivalik and Expleo which is oldest. Average age is little over 6 months.

Company name	Last price	Cost per share	% of Total	Return % pa	Total Return %	Current Return %
Ujjivan Financial Services Ltd.	269	124	14.7	235	108	116
IDFC First Bank Ltd.	57	38	10.1	121	48	48
Mirza International Ltd.	302	156	8.4	156	94	94
Gujarat Themis Biosyn Ltd.	739	608	7.8	121	30	21
RBL Bank Ltd.	135	105	7.7	58	29	29
Kilpest India Ltd.	334	362	6.3	-15	-8	-8
Ugro Capital Ltd.	175	174	6.0	-22	-13	0
Shivalik Bimetal Controls Ltd.	469	196	5.9	151	140	139
Krsnaa Diagnostics Ltd.	483	502	5.6	-29	-19	-4
KPI Green Energy Ltd.	704	861	5.6	-65	-18	-18
Apollo Tricoat Tubes Ltd.	1060	784	4.9	60	31	35
Coastal Corporation Ltd.	274	352	4.7	-86	-22	-22
Affle (India) Ltd.	1162	1115	4.1	9	4	4
Expleo Solutions Ltd.	1285	632	4.1	92	132	103
Meghmani Finechem Ltd.	1270	772	4.0	79	65	65
Total Stocks			100	24.1	89	31

[james_kerala]

@vikas_sinha

KP energy is older (listed) company and invested by Prasenjit Paul, an asset manager, they liked the management and have been holding since few years.

Thank you Vikas for regular updates. It helps to think through.

I hope by KP Energy you mean KPI Green energy here which is the name of
K.P.I. Global Infrastructure Ltd (as per screener changed name to KPI Green Energy Limited on April 6th 2022.)

How do you see it going forward as I see you are holding it with --18% loss

It came to my radar due to high growth in sales, profit in last 1,3 and 5 years with good ROE as per the screener. I hold a tracking quantity with a hope to study more. Yet to go through in detail.

[Shakti_Srivastava]

Hi Vikas…we have 3 stocks in common…Shivalik, Affle & Meghmani Finechem…idfc first bank in watchlist…

May we know …what prompted you to choose ujjivan over equitas small finance Bank…

[never_overpay]

@vikas_sinha I’m sure you know what you are doing - I might not agree with the turnover but I respect your take on this. I have a couple of questions if you can clarify (just trying to understand the thought process):

1. RoE, RoCE, PE, CF & FCF - Do you take these numbers from screener/trendlyne or calculate yourself from ARs?
2. I see the idea/story behind your positions. Would you mind sharing your numbers/calculations to support the story (of maybe one investment of your choice as an example)? In short, how did you value a business before deciding to make a position.

IDFC First Bank Limited

Dear fellow members, I’ve been through a few messages here and there on this long thread and I believe this has not been discussed. If it has been I apologise in advance. Disclosure: I do have a small position in IDFC First bank. The bank and its CEO first came to my attention after its merger. The bank looked decent and the CEO even more so. It is during COVID that V.V got a margin call. He did an interview at the time and that is when I realised that you rarely find people like that. Anyway…

Regards

[sai_upadhyayula]

hi @vikas_sinha are you still tracking roto pumps ?

I saw that it was part of your pf in the initial post. They are entering into new categories of products like down pumps and mud motors which serve the purpose of import substitution as per the FY22 Annual reports, also, they are entering into solar pump manufacturing.

Management has provided guidance of 20%+CAGR in the medium term.

Would love to know your buy and sell thesis, I see that you are also involved in the discussions in the Shakti pumps thread, didn’t read the whole thread just browsed through it So I am hoping you may have some insights about the industry and the company.

Thanks

[vikas_sinha]

Hi James,

Thanks! KPI has moved up since the post, now the loss is negligible. This was a position which was entered at very high valuations, hence risk and volatility is there. The loss only appeared due to speculation about impact of duty waiver removal, which likely does not affect KPI since entire order book is only worth 6 months max at current execution run-rate. The duty changes likely only impact large scale muti-year projects of biggies like NTPC, Adani etc.

Energy costs due to coal price rise mean renewables have a kick, in arena of captive power etc. Company seems capable to scale and ambition is not lacking. Worth a bet, to see through execution in next few quarters and further if trend sustains.

[vikas_sinha]

Hi Shakti,

Good to know! Yes, I try to stick with the more popular names, rather than going for a strong contrarian pick. Ujjivan turnaround story was the theme, like RBL the management turnover was making it weak. Not really looked at Equitas, other than general small fin bank sectoral downtrend nothing more seemed of interest. (plus mergers galore in banking)

[vikas_sinha]

Hi Mayur,

Thanks!

1. Screener mostly.

2. No, I do not crunch numbers, just a basic sanity check and comparison with peer valuations.

[vikas_sinha]

Hi Sai,

Roto was held for about 2-3 months, it was sold off coz I thought covid season would not suit it, due to delays in capex globally. Now, company seems to have a niche in specialty pump types where it can grow bigger at a good rate. Solar pumps is very competitive biz, the end-users are hardly interested due to subsidies on diesel and electricity. Govt tenders are unpredictable to a great extent. So, company seems interesting to hold but solar diversification seems like a red-flag. Maybe harmless though! I do occasionally glance at results, nothing more.

[sarthakkumar19_]

Hello Vikas,

What is your exit criteria for Ujjivan. Asking since it has run up quite a bit and is your biggest holding.

Thanks

[vikas_sinha]

@sarthakkumar19_ target is minimum 3x, so ~400+, will sell off between 450-500, going for little beyond the min target, given very healthy macros and banks enjoying nice spreads in interest income.

[Bhavya_Vyas]

hey vikas ji hope you doing good, wanted to ask few ques

1. current views on mirza and the demerger
2. views on cement and infra cos
   (specially how will you select a co in sector like these)
   3.views on railway theme , will you join the party
   thankyou

[vikas_sinha]

@Bhavya_Vyas Mirza is still considerably undervalued, with the demerger more so since it makes the better biz ever stronger, image change and hence re-rating will come with demonstrated performance and ethical behavior.

Cement is too much of a commodity biz, with many large caps crowding the market hence not looked at it much, seems access to raw-material such as limestone mines etc, and good transport infra targeting a lesser supplied region are the key here.

Railways I would avoid, their electrification is 90% done, DFCs are majority complete, technically speaking there aren’t any more low-hanging fruit which can be reaped by them hence not interested.

[vikas_sinha]

UPDATE:

Sold off coastal corp. Bought best agro with the amount from sell off of coastal, booked losses makes it a tax free year for me. Best agro seems to be expanding fast and looks decently priced.

[manish962]

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