vikas ji have you checked the raid matter(search) in krsnaa diagnostics . wanted your views on that.
Hi Bhavya,
These things keep happening, no issues, even if some (small) dispute is raised. To me it looks like company is rich and making money, to attract attention, also in the prompt notice to exchanges they thanked employees. Signs of good management.
2 Likes
UPDATE:
Exited from MK Exim (was smallest holding), added majority to Kilpest, Krsnaa, also Ugro averaging them down. Also averaged up on Ujjivan fin (biggest holding, 10% of total) and IDFCF bank (3rd biggest, 7% of total). Now left with 20 holdings, trying to get closer to 15 mark.
MK Exim is of quite unpredictable quality, since very little is covered in public domain about it, no thread here or con calls/presentations or analyst reports, makes it difficult to gain conviction.
The holdings added to were quite new, ~5 months old and needed ramp up in weights.
9 Likes
Vikas ji, what do you think of Krsnaa’s results and lowering of their guidance. All this coupled with the recent IT raids and the upcoming end of lock-in period. Too many things are happening at the same time. How do you look at it.
Disc. - Invested and added in current fall.
Hi Gaurav,
I do not think much about the tax raid, there are many examples of this and nothing comes out, like Avanti faced big raids in 2019 etc. Lock-in ending is not so bad phase also, looking at the shareholding structure, mostly MFs may book-losses, on the other hand ICICI pharma fund has doubled initial stake. I too have been buying but run out of cash and position size got too big.
Fundamentally results are not that bad, when asked before I had answered that Q3 FY22 figures were the base for my decision, that will be easily beaten. Stock is on cheaper side given potential for hockey stick growth. Granted that management may not be seasoned enough to give better projections.
The PPP space in healthcare has good growth forecasts, and Krsnaa is trying and is leader in its domain. Enough to have some patience for now.
4 Likes
UPDATE:
Sold off Dynemic, their huge capex is making PAT negative, before capacity and margins improve, cannot wait for this, margins going to half was the bigger issue here.
Added Ujjivan fin, IDFCF bank, Krsnaa, Kilpest, Ugro, in that order, the same list as last week.
5 Likes
UPDATE:
Sold off Sandur, looks hit by coke duty reduction, rest looks as if most activities stopped mid of previous quarter when steel and iron ore export duties were imposed (on 22 may), but not worth the risk, going ahead, also commodities are now in downturn and Godawari is enough.
They started work on new steel plant, for pipes and iron, that usually takes 2 years+, unless you are a JSW or Tata, also EC is about to come through for 3x mine expansion, but all this only provides doubling in 2-3 years, not enough.
Rights issue kind of shows what quality of management is there.
This qtr was bad, but at best they may only do half of past year, so any gains in future are moot
Added Ujjivan fin, IDFCF bank, Krsnaa, Kilpest, Ugro, the same list as last week
2 Likes
UPDATE:
Sold off Kopran with 33% and Manorama 77% CAGR gains, invested in KPI Green.
I had got bit confused while tracking between EKI energy and KPI green, hence missed it. While EKI looks fraud which does carbon-credit trading, KPI looks ok, but it could run out of land-bank to set up solar parks and is dependent on gujarat govt policy, maybe it does ok for next 2-3 years before a glut in power cycle.
Manorama is very slow to ramp up sales, and Kopran too, very slow projects, may take years for to reach the full capacity at 15% per year incrementally.
KP energy is older (listed) company and invested by Prasenjit Paul, an asset manager, they liked the management and have been holding since few years. Wind energy never really took off, example suzlon or inox wind, but now it has started booming also. Bidding wars have meant very low revenues so far, energy crisis or something fundamentally changed the power demand/supply situation (bidding process has been reformed also). Coal supply may remain in crisis, even though court cases related to scams/tenders have been disposed, since mines will take time to yield. Europe (western allies etc.) re-aligning energy supplies away from Russian sources, may contribute to the stress.
Microcaps can have really fast growth if opportunity is there and management is good enough to scale at speed.
DISCLAIMER : this is not investment advice, I am not a sebi registered investment advisor
please do your due diligence before investing
6 Likes
Latest folio status:
Still 3% down since peak in April 2022. A tiny withdrawal recently made is not shown, maybe insignificant for charting as per Zerodha algorithm.
Consolidation phase is now almost over, reduced number of holdings by 40% since february, from 27 down to 17 now.
Tips Films is not shown in the holdings value since value discovery is not done, it still has to be listed and start trading.
| Company name | Last price | Cost per share | % of Total | Return % pa | Total return % | Current return % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ujjivan Financial Services Ltd. | 196 | 124 | 11.0 | 176 | 50 | 58 |
| 2 | Mirza International Ltd. | 325 | 156 | 9.2 | 324 | 108 | 108 |
| 3 | IDFC First Bank Ltd. | 49 | 38 | 8.8 | 120 | 27 | 27 |
| 4 | RBL Bank Ltd. | 128 | 105 | 7.4 | 67 | 22 | 22 |
| 5 | Kilpest India Ltd. | 399 | 365 | 6.7 | 20 | 9 | 9 |
| 6 | KPI Green Energy Ltd. | 887 | 866 | 6.4 | 414 | 2 | 2 |
| 7 | Krsnaa Diagnostics Ltd. | 484 | 504 | 5.3 | -41 | -21 | -4 |
| 8 | Shivalik Bimetal Controls Ltd. | 594 | 294 | 5.1 | 153 | 103 | 102 |
| 9 | Affle (India) Ltd. | 1328 | 1115 | 4.8 | 91 | 19 | 19 |
| 10 | Godawari Power & Ispat Ltd. | 299 | 237 | 4.8 | 4 | 9 | 26 |
| 11 | Apollo Tricoat Tubes Ltd. | 1004 | 784 | 4.8 | 69 | 24 | 28 |
| 12 | RACL Geartech Ltd | 563 | 257 | 4.7 | 87 | 180 | 120 |
| 13 | Meghmani Finechem Ltd. | 1454 | 772 | 4.7 | 161 | 88 | 88 |
| 14 | Ugro Capital Ltd. | 184 | 170 | 4.6 | -17 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | Expleo Solutions Ltd. | 1315 | 632 | 4.2 | 115 | 137 | 108 |
| 16 | Laurus Labs Ltd. | 574 | 342 | 3.9 | 218 | 362 | 68 |
| 17 | Steel Strips Wheels Ltd. | 839 | 843 | 3.8 | -4 | -3 | 0 |
| Total Stocks | 100 | 24.8 | 92.4 | 36.6 |
I use value-research for saving folio details. It helped to maintain history between demat switch from ICICI to Zerodha. “Return % pa” is the CAGR computed by them, since september 2017. It may seem like 5 years but I had given up for 1 year between sept 2018-sept 2019, when small and mid-cap carnage was at the peak. The real start was made a few weeks/months before this thread was started, around nov 2019. So, my real (sensible) market experience is a little less than 3 years. Helped mostly by value-pickr 
The over-all investing eco-system has greatly improved too. 
Having started in september 2017 and seeing steady decline since Jan 2018 (after a 30% jump in the first few months), it was total ~70% decline till march 2020, since then 1000% increase, so overall better. 2020-22 period was an average 2% increase per trading day (using simple progression, compounding rate 0.5% per day). Value-pickr is filled with old-timers who rode the first pharma wave when exports flooded the world. They were still writing about the pharma and I had already loaded on some of these value-picks before Covid, since the pharma cycle looked about to turn after a politically-motivated USFDA clamp down. Around april 2020, 50% of invested value was in pharma, mostly a coincidence, then added some more and sold within few months when I knew peak sales and margins were totally out of whack with averages and the price/valuation. It looks like some strange wave of stockpiling and disrupted supply leading to margin uptick happened altogether, just when some of my value-picks were ramping up their growth, and it all simply exploded (in a good way).
That will never happen again, of course, so the long term average may be just a mix of both phases seen in the past 5 years, though I am more optimistic, also current returns are very comfortable.
I am not really looking for quick returns, slow and steady is better by me, but decline in value is still difficult to stand. Bhav bhagwan che. Entry and exit are both of course equally important. Not a real microcap investor who can wait for year(s).
32% is financials, just riding easy on the macros, nothing to do here for considerable period. This was a no-brainer, worst prices being seen just after worst 5 year period got over and the sun finally rising on the industry. Bargain time!
Note: Withdrawals are not in Zerodha graph and they account for 13% of current folio value.
12 Likes
thee is tool called “Mprofit”…you can import all your data easily… into the tool from zeroda contact notes to have accurate view of your XIRR at portfolio level and position level… it can also auto import dividends so more accurate representation of your XIRR…I hope you know about that… alredy… cheers…
2 Likes
hello hitesh ji hope you are doing good just wanted your views on 5paisa and vaibhav global, looking at the charts both looks good as in accumulating phase.thankyou
no no just needed you fundamental view on the scrips to make my thesis more strong.
technical part was just for the viewers and timing the entry types.
disc. no reco.
i hold one of these
Vaibhav global I have tracked for a little while but not anymore, nothing would suggest a turnaround, valuations are still expensive.
5paisa, I did hold when it was demerged, but sold off soon after, IIFL is a pretty decent franchise, maybe the fundas are better here, but valuations are also quite stiff.
Technically suggestive levels for both definitely, well spotted. 
2 Likes
Ugro is a high risk bet - its NCDs are yielding ~40% yield. Debt markets are far better indicator of a companys health than equity mkt. They have decent liquidty to tide over period of credit issues. But I would not include it in a long term portfolio
2 Likes
Noob question. Does ‘Ugro’s NCDs are yielding’ mean that it has to pay out that interest to investors and that will adversely impact its balance sheet for the next quarter? Can someone throw light on what typically happens when NCD yield, is it considered a short term headwind? Thanks.
1 Like
The NCD you are referring to has distributed a principal repayment of 33% on 29th July so the NCD (UGROCAP-N1) is reflecting the same. There is no downgrade or sell off in these bonds. The yield remains at 10% or thereabouts at CMP.
Bond Yield is made up of 3 components - Interest rate and coupon face value and time to maturity (however the bond in question is having maturity in ~1 year time so ignoring it for simplicity)
At maturity of the NCD the investor will receive the coupon
face value (given there has been no principal repayment during the tenor, the face value remains same throughout) and some interest according to rate fixed during issuance which is credited monthly/yearly to the holder.
So in this case @Srini_Narayanan thought the NCD CMP was 673 and at maturity he will receive bond face value (1000) and the ~10% interest thereby making the yield ~40% but if he factors in principal repayment the face value drops to 670 and yield will come out to be 10% which is at par with coupon rate at issuance.
4 Likes
Thank you, appreciate it. So how does this event affect the balance sheet? As in, does it add to expenses in the balance sheet and will margins or revenues show a dip? Ex: When a lock in period ends, there is some sell off and typically stock price can go down. Similarly, are there any such impacts for such events?
Borrowings will reduce a bit due to repayment, interest out go will reduce a bit.
Miniscule in the grand scheme of things as they keep raising money via NCDs so the effect gets diluted.
There is no impact on stock price due to this, it’s standard business function.
2 Likes
Look at AGI Green, very strong fundamentals, its monopolistic in glass for alcohal and this quarter will add more revenue and profits.
4 Likes
UPDATE:
Sold off Godawari power, Steel strips wheels and RACL. Bought Gujarat themis biosyn, and Coastal corp.
Reason:
Consolidation while churning. People can have a tea party and share tit-bits, after buying 50 companies tell of 5-6 nice gains stories. I share my full list with full details, always full disclosure. The name of the game is cagr at folio level, rest is nice for educational purpose only, no warranty.
Exited RACL (cagr 85%), 25% growth promised by management may be deferred a bit due to european issues
GPIL (cagr 4%) is going to grow so slowly that it might look to be going backwards compare to previous year. China is trying to re-balance economy away from infra/housing etc. which will put pressure on steel globally and also iron-ore. GPIL was focusing more on mining, but will need to re-focus on steel due to duties, this is an expensive (time and money wise) growth path. Cagr is low can be due to value-research portfolio service not considering the time-period when it had been sold off. This was one of my oldest, held/traded since 2017. (sold off between 2019-2021)
Steel strips (cagr -4%) has openly stated many times, they expect growth of only 10% this year. Capacities are full, exports have slowed and the new factory they had bought in auction is still no where in sight (this sale was signed almost 1 year ago, and may be final-final any day now and may kick share up). I was also waiting for kick of cheaper steel for margin growth and also lower taxes (they are paying 36% rate, maybe because of tax assets under older tax rules, which will hurt profits if written off).
Gujarat themis has announced since past 1 year already plans to 10x current size, over next 3 years, while their pharma fermentation is quite high margin and substitute for chinese imports. They plan to launch first new production block worth 4x current size by mid next year. No debt, cash flow funded only. I had previously invested in Guj themis, avg buy of 180, avg sell of 270, within 5 months, july to dec 2020. Something is seriously changing sales and margin profile for better since a year for Guj themis, they still have 20% capacity left, so PAT may double even before the new plant starts, so wait for growth may not take so long. They have already done some capex but are saying only improving current plant and on some RnD unit (which they say is for new products). Promotors holding is 75% maxed already and they kicked out some korean company by buying them out 1 year ago.
Coastal corp was due to niel bahal, maybe his thesis can work, risk is that exports data is not showing that high growth in marine products and ethanol margins are dependent on govt giving cheap rice and buying expensive product. Still there is margin of safety if not growth.
Coastal has 4 triggers, but will take 1-2 years for them to realize
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Should recover from corona shock, summer barbeque season has peak offtake, current PAT is 15 Cr, post all growth it should be 150 Cr, it was 45 Cr in FY 2019 before the shock. On the other hand, it seems to be more shocked than 2x sized peer Apex foods which has done better with margins quite stable, Apex ebitda is flat, while Coastal has declined by 66%
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Prawns processing expansion has just operationalized in june, best part of season sales may show up in results in a months time. Expansion was by 80%. More expansion in progress and will be adding 40% more. Apex was able to expand by 100% and looks like they already did bumper sales in Q1 hence numbers are better. On the other hand, Prawns global dynamics does not suit India, China is testing imports for covid and US is getting supplies from many sources.
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New distillery will be starting by mid next year, and contribute 50% to profits at usual ethanol margins. These margins may be under pressure.
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Promotor has been buying steadily and big chunks of shares, and is financing 50% of expansion by personal loans, also getting subsidies
If all goes ok, PE should fall to 3 from 30, in 1.5 years and normal PE should be 10 at least, hence the upside is 3x or at least 2x.
PS: Sticking for years with Laurus cagr is still 212%, while peak is well past. Some of the biggest gains were 2x or 3x in a month and value-research cannot show cagr more than 999%, like Borosil renew, Aarti drugs. And these were 20-30% of folio, not tea-party kind.
PPS: opened IDFCF bank account 
online, full functional within 2 min, and loving the experience so far! Nil charges for everything and clear disclosure, with good interest rate!
27 Likes