My Perpetual Risky Portfolio

Hello Everyone,

Recently I got approved to be part of this ValuePickr group and I am really happy that such a platform exists where people are more helpful than trolling and spamming.

Brief about myself and my strategy:-
I actively study my portfolio but avoid making frequent changes which can digress my initial thought process of decision making. I am currently in my 30s and strongly believe in taking risks for wealth generation. I am a Finance post Grad, so I do look at macros, cash flow, and financials along with technicals but I strongly believe in my judgment and that’s the key to my investing strategy.
I have also made quite a good amount of money with my approach and some of them have turned out to be multi-baggers but the risk persists and I am OK with it.

Below is the list of my holdings and some context along with it. I am heavy on Banking and Chemical Sector along with IT and also keep an eye for Diamonds in the Dust :grinning:

Yes Bank | Qty 78K | 33%
Note: Yes, I am one of those who invested for ages and continue to hold for more than 5-6yrs. I have avgd aggressively to bring down my losses however stopped this madness about a year ago when the price was hovering around 12rs and my avg buy price is 27rs.
I have strong belief in Banking and Financial sector for coming decade+ as they will move the economy and with the ongoing transformation with YB, I am comfortable to keep this elephant in my portfolio hoping in next 2yrs, it may cross my buy price.

IDFC First Bank | Qty 14K | 8%
Note: I have strong belief in IDFC FB Mgmt team and their approach towards retail banking. The deleveraging of the corp loan book which they achieved shows the mgmt capability to be aggressive in the already chaotic Banking sector. The gradual increase in retail loan book and vision to become next HDFC Bank is why I am stuck to this theme. PS: I also hold savings account, FD and CC with them. That’s my commitment. I have decent profits of approx 35% at CMP

RBL Bank | Qty 2.5K | 8%
Note: I had purely invested for a swing trade at the levels of 216rs and am currently stuck in this counter. I don’t like booking losses and am comfortable keeping the holdings with little avg here n there when it hits rock bottom to my belief. Avgd buy price ~190rs

IBull Housing Finance | Qty 1.2K | 4%
Note: This company has gone through a lot of rough patches and I thought it was on the verge of transformation when the qtrly results started improving for couple of qtrs but the stock price nosedived when RBI search news at their office broke out. From thereon the mkt is bearish and stock is on freefall. I have been closely monitoring their financials and the company has decent loan book increase along with stock currently trading below its book value of 356rs so can be a multibagger in long term. Also I know that they have been religiously repaying their interest and principal for NCD and Debentures and havent defaulted which means they are here to stay for long term. Currently at loss of 40%

Equitas Holdings | Qty 3K | 3%
Note: Not done with my banking list yet. :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:
I have strong conviction with this specific small finance bank and they are here to become behemoth in micro financing catering to the lower earning section of the society. There is lot of competition as well in this sector however, I belive Equitas is well poised to grow with the overall economic boom theme in coming decade. Things will be much clearer when the merger completes with Equitas Small Finance Bank. I have a good profit and it’s already a multi-bagger for me holding since 2020

UPL | Qty 1K | 7%
Note: This is one of the heavyweight largecap stocks which is part of my portfolio stability structure and given the global market catered by UPL, I feel UPL is poised for growth. I would wish the UPL mgmt team starts aggressively reducing their debt but that is happening at slow pace. Overall it generates a good dividend for me as well. My aim is to reduce the qty to half at the levels of ~800 when it turns multibagger for me and then invest in upcoming agro/speciality chemical themes.

Sudarshan Chem | Qty 700 | 5%
Note: This is one stock in which my overall research and study collapsed big time. This is a unique company with not much competition in pigment manufacturing and globally ranked 3rd (was 2nd earlier). I had high hopes that it will continue the last run-up of chemical theme but this did not budge a lot and has corrected further in current bear market. On the company con call, I do not find the mgmt looking to be transformative and ambitious but just remain as business as usual. I had small profits till last year but got eroded recently. Will be exiting this script upon some reasonable profit as I am invested since 2020. currently at loss of 18%

Bharat Rasayan | Qty 10 |
IPL | Qty 250 |
Paradeep Phosphates | Qty 2.5K |
Note: Holding smaller qty of the above scripts as slowly will be increasing qty in these as they will grow good in long term. Also will be will be increasing the qty gradually and switch in between these while reducing qty in UPL. Currently sitting in double-digit profit in all of these.

INFY | Qty 400 | 5%
Note: When I think of growth between largecap IT, I believe INFY will be faster in growth compared to TCS. They are cash rich for sure but mgmt really does not know where to invest further and grow. Eventually they have to come up with better value proposition else they are the next ITC in making. Given that IT business is asset light, the revenues are good and it provides stability and dividend pay to my portfolio. Invested for many years and will continue to hold. Already a multi-bagger for me and I always accumulate during corrections such as cmp ~1396

Latent View | Qty 500 | 4%
Note: I purchased this script recently with my thought process of having 1 stable+1 growth stock in each sector. Being from IT industry I surely know that analytics is going to get big in near future and is consumed by not only IT but other industries like OIL n GAS and Manufacturing, Pharma. etc. for their sales, manufacturing, and business forecasting. The application is tremendous and only time will tell if I am right or wrong. This is again a long term bet and will keep accumulating on dips. currently at loss of 20% at cmp.

MGL | Qty 250 | 3%
Note: I added MGL in my portfolio last year just to go with energy theme and purely based on technicals assuming it was in oversold zone and ongoing business. However it stabilized at that level and fell further in current bear market. Honestly I do not know what to do with this one but will only take a decision to exit once it turns green with decent profits to beat the FD rate of my loss in time.

Trident | Qty 3K | 1.5%
Note: I have regretted not buying trident at the level of 6rs during covid times even though after researching enough about it. Recently, I found it to be in lucrative levels and hence added it in my portfolio. The strong value proposition of this company is its market reach globally which is going to be affected with upcoming slowness in next few qtrs if consumption slows down along with mgmt which recently went through rejig but I am hoping the rigor continues. I will continue to accumulate it at lower levels for very long term if it gives good profit.

Coffee Day Ent | Qty 10K | 8%
Note: This is one stock on which I am bullish to become multibagger in next 18months. I have it in my portfolio since Jan22 and had decent 60% profit in few months but that was un necessary run up. Currently the stock is stabilizing at 60-70 levels and with upcoming qtrly results, increase in sales post covid and reduction in debt post demise of promoter. They have huge chunk of subsidiaries, along with acres of coffee farms. They are slowly decreasing the debt after the scam was unearthed and expecting returns from recent sale of assets and stakes in Embassy tech village+one of their mining subsidiaries. The stock is trading way below its book value and next few good qtrs will hopefully make it cross the levels of 100rs.
I have taken similar bets in few other companies like above and have made multibaggers in decent time period of 1-2years. (Greaves Cotton, ATGL, Prince Pipe etc.) If I am successful in the above, I will increase my bets on such transformation themes.

Apart from above I have small qty of Adani Wilmar and will be accumulating slowly for my FMCG sector which I have sold out completely.

This is 20% of my investment, with the remaining 20% in US mkt (Employee Stocks), 40% in Real Estate and remaining in EPF/PPF/FD Etc.
I have slowly started building/accumulating/growing my portfolio in US stocks with Vested as the bluechip in US is big time beaten down right now.
I would be very happy if I can get an honest opinion of this community and your thoughts.

Happy Investing! :pray:

8 Likes

I have done research on CCD and had updated on thread there in forum and agree with you that is going to be multi bagger given management commentary in the report and turnaround. Good luck

The latest results are out and they have barely reached a positive of 6cr profit.
I am hoping with an increase in consumption, they should slowly move the profits into double digits and gradually reduce the debt pile. There are a lot of unknowns with the company so need to be very cautious as we being investors are always a few steps behind what’s brewing inside the company and management but so is the risk with any other small-cap company.

I realized that it’s the last day of this AY '22 and hence wanted to close it off by sharing the current standings and all the rejig done so far to my portfolio.

My biggest worry was my portfolio concentration within the financial sector as it comprised 56% of the overall portfolio and has now reduced to approx ~40%. The biggest change has been partial profit booking in Yesbank and have decided to follow swing strategy which is to buy below 18rs and sell above 25rs (Based on the head/tail wind). Read some VP posts from @manhar and it actually made sense.

Some of the holdings % may have changed just because of portfolio rejig and I would mention that in my post. With that said here is the current holding details:-

Yesbank | 20%
In my last profit booking, I only sold the ones which were in green and continue to hold remaining chunk and will continue to apply swing strategy. In fact the opportunity came so fast recently during last Friday’s 23rd Dec massacre but till then I had already re-invested. As per my initial coverage of YesBank, I am still bullish on this script. It has lot of tailwind as the bank stabilizes and lending picks up further in the coming year and margins improve. I am also hoping further institutional and MF houses accumulation to happen in the new year and also the existing Institutions may continue to hold on to their high quantities as they see greener pastures.

IDFC First Bank | 7% (Unchanged)
IDFC FB is on a great path of growth and with added confidence in management and numbers paint a beautiful picture. This script is already a multi-bagger for me and I am expecting it to become 4X in AY23

RBL Bank | 7.1% (Unchanged)
I am at the cusp of breakeven on this script and hoping in next coming qtrs, I should be able to exit from here. My expectation from this script was only a decent 15% return in short term however the mgmt. related issues made the stock plunge and I became a long term investor. My expectation still is 15% and will modestly exit when I reach TP. I might use this fund to accumulate other existing holdings.

IBull Housing Finance | 3.5% (Unchanged)
Although I have strong belief in the housing market sector and was hoping this script would turn out to be a darskhorse but things arent going great here. The loan book growth isn’t promising and their cost of borrowing is very high compared to peers. The small fin banks have also upped their lending game and I don’t see a moat. I personally feel they should sell off their portfolio to a bigger fish and quit the game. The brand value is no more there and nothing extraordinary happening here to enthuse anyone. Its a tough game and a turnaround for IndiaBulls would be a pure magic. Currently at loss of 20% and will reconsider holding after breakeven if I see a positive change in loan book and lending. Fun fact Book value @359 :slight_smile:

Equitas Holdings | 2.6% (Unchanged)
This one has also turned multibagger for me and honestly, I very much like this smallfin bank for what they are doing in the industry. With the HoldCo and Small fin Bank merger happening in the coming quarter, things will get further simplified. My sincere expectation is 20% return in AY’23 and I am happy to hold till perpetuity.

UPL | 6.2% (Unchanged)
I am very bullish on this largecap and it had turned multibagger for me in June’21 but I was aiming for the moon. -ve returns in the current AY but I am heavily profitable. I will continue to hold UPL as the agro chem sector in coming AY is going to act as a defensive sector in my portfolio. I am +ve that this script will be in ~900-1000rs range by end of AY23
Also I am going to slowly concentrate below chem holdings in my portfolio to 1 large cap (UPL) and 1 small/midcap.
Bharat Rasayan | 1.5% (Unchanged)
IPL | 1% (Increased)
Paradeep Phosphates | 1.5% (Unchanged)

INFY | 5.2% (Unchanged)
Infy has been through lot of bashing recently and with looming scare of economical turmoil in US and Europe, the script is trading at a reasonable buying space. This is a perpetual stock in my portfolio and I continue to accumulate when it falls a lot. The current buying range should be in 1300-1400rs for long term accumulation and dividend gain.

Latent View | 4.7% (Increased)
Analytics is a new-age tech and its application in various sectors is huge. I will continue to accumulate this script during fall and I am expecting it to be a consistent moneymaker in the years to come. I don’t see any alarms as well for now.

MGL | 3.1% (Unchanged)
Stuck in this script and require 8% to breakeven.

Sudarshan Chem | 4.5% (Unchanged)
Seriously stuck in this script and I am not at all interested in avg as I don’t see any interest in this script and in overall pigment chem. currently at 20% loss and awaiting opportunity to exit.

Coffee Day Ent | 8% (Unchanged)
I am continuing to hold CCD and expecting a nice turnaround in this script. I am very much keen on the Q4 results and if it plays well then expect a slow and steady run up to 100rs and further reach its book value.


NEW ADDITIONS


Affle India Ltd. | 7.1%
I was waiting for a good entry point in affle and finally was able to grab it at decent lower levels. Its one stock that is again a new-age digital tech company playout. The overall consumption in the digital space has exploded manifolds companies like such will surely be the beneficiary of the tailwind due to the intrinsic demand. I will accumulate further if it goes below my buy level in proportional quantities and expecting a good return in long term.

Sonacomstar BLW | 3%
I picked this up in the recent fall and although the script has given -ve 43 return in AY22, the demand in the domestic auto sector and EV space is slowly picking up and will act as a market mover in AY23 for Indian markets. Auto sector demand exhibits domestic consumption and given that India’s growth rate is expected to be way better in the coming times, this script is poised to surely benefit. Will continue to accumulate further if it falls.

Apart from this, I have smaller qty of Trident, AWL, Prince Pipe, Bector Foods, Symphony, and Vikas Lifecare.

I am little bit weary about the next few qtrs and hence sitting on a sizeable amount of liquidity for some better opportunities and just sipping some savings bank interest from IDFC FirstBank :wink:

Also hedging my portfolio with some FUT contracts to shield against expected volatility in near future.

I have slowly started taking positions in other US Stocks and accumulating Adobe, Alphabet, UI Path and Amazon on monthly basis in smaller quantities for years to come.

My goal getting into New Year 2023 is to continue to experiment with various portfolio strategies which include but not limited to:-

  1. Portfolio Hedging Strategy
  2. Concentrate the portfolio to Max 10 stocks and reduce the amount of brain churn and simplification
  3. Slowly build and diversify into dividend yielding portfolio to reduce screen time

I checked my XIRR and it comes to 21.9%

Finally, I would like to wish you all a very Happy New Year 2023 and Happy Investing! :pray:

6 Likes

Hi…In agrochemical space , i was confused between UPL and PI industries. Ultimately i invetsed in P I industries. What is your opinion about both these companies and if starting from scratch, which one you will prefer?

Pi is an innovator contract manufacturer with Indian generics business. Whereas UPL is a distributor and generic agchem company. Pi, Deccan chemicals and Srf are perhaps one of a kind company in the Indian context. Given all 3 have built an agchem crams business with topline of more than 2k+ crores.

UPL is a giant in its own space. However, corporate structure is too complicated to understand given the number of acquisitions they have done in the past.

Pi’s business will be more non volatile to an extent vs the likes of UPL.

Problem for Pi remains their inability to diversify into pharma. As agchem innovator synthesis has a limited tam of 5-6 billion. Srf is already guiding to take Pharma to 30-35% of spechem division.

Sorry for butting in and answering this :slight_smile:

3 Likes

Hi Mudit. Thanks for your interest!

To be honest, I know nothing about PI industry apart from general info which is available everywhere.

My conviction with UPL is due to the international business they have built and slowly increasing their hold in South America wherein just like India, farming is a primary source of income. UPL is a multinational agrochem global brand. (I believe one of the top5 in the world from revenue perspective). Their focus is primarily on Crop Protection solutions and is a technology-driven company. They have many subsidiaries and a very complex corp structure but the growth trajectory from company perspective is poised for good.

The real concern is increasing debt and I have somewhat low confidence in mgmt specially Shroff and family. You know there is something fishy when the promoters are buying yacht through companies in British virgin islands and acquiring real estate in dubai through nested subsidiaries (Src: Pandora Papers).
Overall, the above has not affected the company so far and they have above avg dividend payout. Some info from ticker tape for your consideration.

In case anyone has read the latest concal transcripts, plz elaborate what was mgmt narrative on reducing the debt. Thank You!

1 Like