Tejas Networks - Product based IT business in a favored sector?

This does not seems to be a matter of concern as Tejas kitty is already full and they have to prove and deliver on their commitment of existing orders from BSNL. Also BSNL order is just playing ground for Tejas to prove to the world that they have the requisite capability to deploy end to to end network on such a large scale. Next 18 months would be critical in assessing the growth and execution trajectory and any international order wins in between. On the Italy order, they have proven their capabilities as well recently.

Additionally the “Rip and replace” campaign in US and now spreading to UK & EU will ensure that the demand will flow to India who is a trusted partner and companies like Tejas will tend to benefit.

This BSNL thing seems to be some sort of internal politics which is very much prevalent in PSU’s. So long we have the support from our Telcom minister and govt to increase domestic manufacturing of the telecom products and make it for the world then these type of news is just noise.

Happy for the learned members to share any opinions for everyone’s benefit.

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Price variation allowed is 20%…Tejas offer was 21% above Nokia…if Tejas reduces its price by 1%, then it becomes eligible for 50% of the total order…i think in the post tender negotiation phase, tejas may get 300-/500 crores from this order

Secondly, it looks like a planted article.

The BSNL NOKIA is not a done deal…

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Can someone elaborate potential impact because of this?

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Per my limited understanding and knowledge, the tie up with academia is a step in right direction as it entails management vision of:

  1. Harnessing the Indian tech prowess and selling to the world at competitive price points.
  2. Collaboration with academia will ensure that the company has the pipeline of engineers from top tier institutes. Similar sort of industry- academia tie-up’s are also now visible in other companies like Fineotex chemical who has also tied up with Sasmira institute for collaborative R&D.
  3. Consistent allocation of the financial resources in R&D and innovation to remain competitive with biggies like Ericson, Nokia etc.
  4. US based MNC’s like Manvenir are quite optimistic on the demand for Open RAN in India set to grow next year and is ramping up capacities to cater to the demand. Though the tie up with IIT is for 5G RAN but seems that this will have some common linkages.
    Open RAN to ramp up in India by next year: Mavenir, Telecom News, ET Telecom
  5. Additionally the existing contract with BSNL is for the deployment of 4G telecom gears at 1 lacs site which will eventually needs to be upgraded to 5G. Hence this deal may provide add-on’s for Tejas subsequently which will open up 5G RAN opportunities for which this licensing agreement has been entered into.

But for now, we have to track the execution capability and how margin profile (though would not be material as far as BSNL contract is concerned) pans out going forward.

Disc -Invested and Biased

Potential is huge!!! BSNL network which Tejas is currently upgrading for 100,000 sites to 4G under TCS consortium can then be upgraded to 5G. India being the leader of global south will also be able to capture those 5G markets, since most of those countries will not be able to expend money for expensive 5G RAN equipment and systems. Even Tejas would be able to participate in the US Rip and Replace program aggressively with this deal, once the technology is tested by the US authorities. Similarly the European markets too.

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Check out this article. British Telecom couldn’t comply with the UK government ruling to rip off Huawei core telecom equipment. The deadline passes. BT can be penalised 10% of their revenue or UK£ 100K a day till it rips off these Chinese equivalent.

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A good article on RAN and O-RAN technologies in cellular network infrastructure, and US initiatives to ban Huawei RAN equipment worldwide and to promote O-RAN technology to ward off possible cyber attacks in future.

Given the massive size of the order and high stakes involved, it remains to be seen how much of what is stated in the news item will have an impact on the ongoing order with the TCS consortium and upcoming 5G upgrade offer.

Disc: Have invested in Tejas networks and is the largest holding.

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Looks like players like Tejas will have to fight very hard with the BSNL establishment to get their voice heard.

Disc: Largest holding in Tejas and hoping that the government will prevail upon BSNL like they did with the 4G order.

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Yes. This is an home grown Direct to Mobile technology developed by Saankhya Labs and IIT Kanpur. With this technology, you will be able to stream videos to your mobile phones without SIM cards or any Internet data packages. This technology is going to be transformational globally. India’s technology to the global market. This will be very useful for the last mile connectivity for people living remotely. Out of 280 million households in India, only 190 million have television sets. India is planning to use this new dedicated D2M spectrum also for establishing a nationwide emergency alert system. Videos can be transmitted like radio waves that can be received by the public on their D2M phones just like audio transmission is being received by a radio. Market potential is very huge. Africa, South America, Asia and even western countries. I dont know whether Saankhya and IIT have patented the technology. Tejas owns 64+ % stake in Saankhya.

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Is the Q4 result an outlier? What is happening on this counter?

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Q4 numbers are crazy, is that level of growth sustainable or one off

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Not a one-off. They have a huge order to fulfil in the next year.

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Yes they have good order book , but they don’t give any guidance, so difficult to anticipate numbers for forthcoming quarters.

And trading at such multiples, if even growth slows gradually in forthcoming quarters stock may give steap correction.

Looks intresting but kind of afraid to build positions at this multiple

The Q4 profit is largely due to PLI received/recognised in this quarter. PLI of 156 cr may not be there every quarter.

Disc. Invested

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q4 results with concall notes
q4 fy24 tejas net.pdf (3.5 MB)

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Your projection for FY 25 is very close to Emkay’s report, post Q4 results.
Emkay_Q4 FY 24.pdf (1.3 MB)

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