Jubiliant Foodworks
CMP 430
Before anyone asks a question on this, here are our 4-5 months old posts.We first discussed it when price was near 610 (in October ) and then at the levels of 570 (in November).
Has been playing out well.
Keep in mind that whatever we share are probability set-ups.
We keep trying to improvise ourselves by learning constantly to make better projections but we too fail many a times as market tries to befool the best -of -the- bests.
First of all please keep in consideration that we analyse charts from long term investing prespective ie for more than 6 months time horizon . We don’t share any views for short term trading ( i.e for a week or for a month)
Shriram Finance
CMP 1279
Seems that stock is consolidating in Stage 1 (Wave 2). Need to cross /close above the treading ranges ( as shown by red lines). These read-lines are the resistance levels.
In short, we need lot of big hands to enter to absorb the overhead supplies. Currently the momentum seems to be weak.
Weekly Chart
Welspun India
CMP 69
Again a stage 4 stock - trading below 40 WEMA .Weak on RSI as well as in sell zone in almost all time-frames on MACD.
62 is an important support level and if that breaks we can see it going in 50-55 zone.
Low probability : In very short term ,it can go to 72 (76 in best case).
Untill it does not cross 86 , no hopes !
Weekly Chart
Himatsingka
CMP 70
It seems that promoters themselves have diluted their private holdings.
A beautiful Stage 4 stock. Forget 40 WEMA, it has not been able to cross even 9 WEMA for last 9 months.
Seems something is very wrong in the company - it needs something very rotten for a stock to fall from 400 to 70 - won’t be surprised if it touches or goes much below Covid lows ( 44)
If it does not stop near mid-40s, the worst case scenario is that it might become a penny stock (<25) in case things don’t improve.
On upside - levels near 100 have strong resistance .
Monthly Chart
Avanti Feeds
We categories companies in 4 types
a) Good companies ,good investments ( growing companies at reasonable price or avaialble at discount)
b) Good companies ,bad investments ( Overvalued +sector headwinds)
c) Bad comanies, bad investments ( degrwoing, promoters ethics,bad -sector)
d) Bad companies, great trading-opportuities ( trading/story/pumping)
Currently for us , Avanti falls in category (b).
It is a stage 4 stock as per Stage Analysis .
Chances are that it can fall below 300 if it does not stop near 350-360 range.
On upside, there are resistances at every level.
These can only be broken if few big hands jump in and buy huge quantities .
Weekly Chart
Disclaimer :This post is just for learning few methods of price-patterns. Views are personal. No buy/sell recommendations. These are probability study methods and chances of success/failure depend upon various factors.
We analysed this sector in June ,22 - nothing much has changed - few stocks have fallen badly while others have moved in a range in last 10 months.
Few other stocks that were not in the above post 
Similarly ICIL , Kitex are also in Stage 4.
For any upmove , a stock needs to stop falling - should make a base i.e. should move in a narrow price range and then it should cross/close above 40 WEMA and finally it should close/cross above nearby trading -ranges for few weeks to come into stage 2.
So long way to go especially for this sector.
@StageInvesting How are these stocks looking?
EID Parry
KCP
Rajapalayam Mills
Ramco Inds
Sundram Fasteners
EID Parry
CMP 525
We’re using monthly chart here as it seems to be in wave 2 - the correction phase - also known as Stage 4 .
Very clearly visible as it has broken the parrallel channel that we’ve drawn from bottom of minor wave ii.
Next stop can be near 455 - 38.2% retracement of whole rise from March 2020.
After that it can go to 430 - 40 months moving average.
Now whether it stops there, only time can tell.
Keep in mind that this movement won’t happen very fast as we’re analysing it on montly chart - it would keep moving up and down in coming weeks and months but overall trend is down till wave 2 is over.
KCP
CMP 101
It is also in Wave 2 - stage 4.
98 is crucial level - most likely it would break .
A=C is near 80 , hopefully it would stop there .But if market conditions are bad, price can go much lower.
Monthly Chart
Rajapalayam
CMP 637
It is also in S4 -wave 2 . But it is in oversold zone .
RSI is very low, so it can bounce back a little.
But that does not mean that it can start moving up.
For that it should make a base ,stabilize and volume buying should come.
On downside , 580-90 is strog support zone ( most likely it would come there.)
Weekly Chart
Ramco Industry
CMP 142
Don’t feel need to share the chart. It is in correction area- Stage 4. Can come near to 110.
Sundram Fastner
CMP 969
Seems to be in early phase of Stage 2 .
But currently it is struggling near trading-range. Should correct a bit now.
Needs lot of patience here. One needs to wait for it to cross and close above trading-range for few weeks.MACD should go to buy-zone and RSI should get some strength.
Weekly Chart
One common point in these scripts is all been held by Mr. Govind Parikh.
So definately assure a good fundamental story lies here.
Hi can u guide , when to use weekly chart and when to use monthly. As in above post u have used both
Hi @StageInvesting … Thank you for your updates. Please share your views on Mahindra & Mahindra and Honda India Power.
Thank you
Hi Sir ,
While studying VEDL ( Vedanta ) and as per observations feel it’s in Wave 5 and forming bearish EDT wadge like formation…
Request your kind guidance as i am in very early stage of Elliot study.
Monthly Charts
We always start with monthly charts wrt long term view .
We look at two things:
First :If some share is below 40 months moving average (40MEMA) and also in sell zone on MACd cycle , then recovery in short/medium term is difficult .It might give some upside moves but they might be limited to a range.
For any significant uptrend, a stock needs to convincingly close above 40 MEMA.
Second :Other reason to start from monthly charts is see whether stock is bottoming out on longer time frame or it is still in free-fall zone. If it is in bottoming out on monthly chart, then we try to see the signs of Stage 1 formation on weekly charts ( though price may be below 40 MEMA)
Hope it helps.
Pls share your thoughts on varroc engineering now…months back you were positive on it and price is still consolidating and right at support level now…
@StageInvesting
Hi and thanks a lot for your efforts to educate us on EW and Stage analysis.
Would love your 2 cents on
Thanks and God bless.
Rahul
Tata Consumer
CMP 726
We covered it in October 22. 
Price was 756.
Seems director was trying make the movie longer by adding some extra scenes that has no link to the climax (price was moving up and down )
Now it has broken many supports.Now let’s see whether we’re near to climax.
Expecting C=A target to be met.
Weekly Chart
Sir,
could you please provide your views on Indian Hotels. few months earlier you were bullish on it. it posted blockbuster results this quarter as well. Appreciate your views.
Varroc Engineering
CMP 280
No hopes. It is below 40 months moving avearge for more than 2-3 years.
Be careful if it breaks 260 , then it can plunge to unimaginable lows.
Monthly Chart
Samrat Pharmchem
CMP 612
Every good story either comes to an end or need to have a pause ( you need a sequel).
As per EW, a stock moves up in 5 waves ( these 5 waves constitute larger wave 1) and then enters into correction zone (larger wave 2).
We feel that this stock has now entred in wave 2 ( a deep correction)
Initial stop is near 570 levels - channel low as well as an old support level (blue line)
But we won;t be surprised if it falls further - near to 40 MEMA levels ie near 380-400 levels in coming months.
Monthly Chart
Newgen Soft
CMP 435
It is debatable whether IT stocks have made their final bottom !
As per Stage Analysis , it seems to be entering Stage 2 but we would be cautious here as there are lot of left side resistances - blue -lines.
In these kind of cases , we would add postions in a staggered manner - as the stock crosses and closes above the key resistance levels. But of it start breaking down, we would exit.
In very-very short term, it can correct a bit and can re-test the cirrent trading range breakout level.
Weekly Chart
Kopran
CMP 124
Well, this is on an endless spree of breaking- hearts.
Don’t see any sign of stoppage here. Let’s leave it to its own whims and wait .Can correct further.
Weekly Chart
Borosil Renewables
CMP 503
As of now , seems to be correcting.
It is in Stage 4 as per Stage Analysis method.
Has lot of resistances on left hand side.
We would be cautious here because if overall market corrects, then we can see it going down to 400 (even bit lower).
To show any significant upmove, first it needs to cross 590-620 range convincingly.
Weekly Chart
Indian Hotels
CMP 318
Yes we remember that we posted about it in May 22 - price moved from 220s to 350s.
But as of now , it seems to be in its last legs (vth wave )of upmove of current cycle that started from Covid -lows. It can end at anytime. Vth waves are tricky , hence very difficult to judge.
From a long term investing prespective, we will wait on sidelines and would enter only after is gives a reasonable correction. Why to buy a full-priced ticket so late for a disco when the party can end at anytime !
Disclaimer :This post is just for learning few methods of price-patterns. Views are personal. No buy/sell recommendations. These are probability study methods and chances of success/failure depend upon various factors.
Vedanta
CMP 314
Well, as per us it completed its 5 waves ( larger wave 1) few months back.
No the question is whether it has completed its correction (wave 2 ) or we’re still in wave 2.
Need to track it closely. Depends upon global macro -factors - inflation/recession , dollar movement etc etc.
Hence fingers are crossed as of now.
Mothly Chart
Thank you very much, your stage analysis has helped me protecting my gains , ( still I make some mistakes, but learning from your charts. And try not to be stuck in such shares at wrong time.
Request your views on Mahindra & Mahindra, Carborundum Universal, & Eclerx
