For China mkt, shouldn’t we need to see Shanghai index instead of Hang Seng (which is for Hong Kong) ?
Both make sense but HSI (HongKong ) gives advance signal and it has more of modern Chinese companies that have been listed internatioally.
Hongkong is a small country , very few of own compnaies , index mostly made of Chinese companies.
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An old post from May 2022, price was near 4000. CMP 2650.
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Hey stage investing what’s your view on gold?
There are 2 posts on the same in last 25 days. Please check the same.
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Market Mood Index from TickerTape
One can plan his/hers funds allocation to the equity-market by taking the help of this as one of the indicators.
It works well as per our experience.
It takes many factors into the account and has been back-tested.
One can access it here and can learn more.
We don’t have any relationship with this website, just sharing for awarenes.
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If closes at these levls, heading for a false breakout of the H&S. If that happens crossing above right shoulder can lead to big moves…
Our Portfolio
Created over last few weeks
Sharing allocation and CMP.
Would be providing the logic later on.
Your views and feedback invited .These would be really helpful in our investment journey.
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A stock taking long time to go up and comes down in 1-2 days tells that sellers are dominating and it lacks momentum. It might go up a little bit but won’t cross the right shoulder top IMO. Also the volume profile matches a head and shoulder top. Volume is decreasing from left to right. Also the hns top formed near a long term resistance that can be seen in monthly charts.
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Hi StageInvesting,
What are your views on Cosmo First?
Cosmo First
There is nothing much to think about it .
As of now it is currently moving below all the key moving averages- 20 DEMA,40 DEMA, 20WEMA,40 WEMA
If one wants to ride on for long term, he/she should wait for it to cross and close above 800 and then 850 convincingly and with volumes.
Otherwise it would keep moving with in 10-15% range. If it does not move up in budget rally (if there is one) ,then there are all chances that it might go near its recent low (657) or below.
Disclaimer : Views are personal and we’ve a right to go wrong. Use your own studies and discretion to take any step.
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Stage Analysis Method
From the beginning of this thread, we’ve been trying to create awareness about stage-analysis method and EW.
These are important and can help long to medium term investops to plan their entires/exit and position -sizing.
While stage-analysis method is simple, learning Elliot Waves takes a lot of time and efforts.
Hence for beginners, we always encourage to learn and start with stage-analysis method.
We already shared a write-up on Stage -Analysis -When to enter and exit the stocks on the basis of stage analysis.
This is a very simple and time-tested concept.
Here we’re sharing a random video on technical-analysis that talks some basics of stage -analsyis .
Although it does not go into depth of stage-analysis , but it is good for beginners.
For more in-depth understanding, one should go through the article shared above.
The video is in Hindi and we don’t know the person. We found it relevent for beginners, hence sharing.
Stating again, please do read the article before you start applying this concept.
There’s more to stage-analysis beyond what is being discussed in this video.
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Added Shriram Finance (5%) by reducing 1 % each from item numbers 2,5,7,11,13.
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Interesting portfolio. Is this all based purely on the EW charts setup or do u\ur team hv also done sm fumdamental analysis in these??
Regarding Equitas - U bought a holdco that was abt to be merged and was thus a sort of arbitrage only. So thr wont be any further charting per se post the record date. If u bought on basis of TA, did u referred the SFB chart in this case??
Disclosure :- Holding Equitas nd few other stocks frm ur list bt purely as arbitrage or fundamental bets. M a total novice whn it comes to TA nd charts so pardon if the queries seem basic
HI
Good calls. whats your view on Apar ind n Surya Roshni
Thanks for the feedback.
Our approach is fundamentals first, technicals later.
For example, in the case of Data Patterns ,Five Star and Pradeep Phospahte, we don’t have long term chart ,hence technical analysis can’t be done here.
Similarly techinical based approach can’t be applied on PR Analytics as it is very thinly traded stock ( mass psychology does not work here)
In case of Intellect and Asahi , we’re trying to bottom-fish.
In above cases ,we like the companies and find the valuation fair ( may be these would become attractive if the market keeps falling).
Sandur, Zee, Gravita, Tata Investment ,Eclerx- we find these reasonably valued as well as we like the story. And we checked these on technical basis also .
Equitas Holding - We like the valuation of the bank but you’re right that we bought holding company for the arbitrage.
Caveats
a) Technical structures can change anytime so go with position-sizing model . We buy in instalments as we get more confirmations ( and can exit too if the structure gets broken badly ) .
b) We have deployed only 30% available cash in current positions.
On certain stocks, we
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Views on Navkar Corp please?
For medium to long term as it has recently became debt free.
Views on iifl finance as charts looks interesting recently gave breakout after good consolidation and good earnings growth
Sir your valuable views on CDSL and CAMS
Follow-Up
As pointed out several times in last one month, it is playing out.
We’re participating in the global rally via following stocks.
There are initial signs of bounce back .
Now whether it is start of a new bull run or it is a bear market rally - we will only know in coming weeks and months.
We’ve taken initial position in last few weeks - following the price action- of more positive signs come, we will add more positions.
EWY -South Korea ETF
CMP 65
Weekly Chart
Trying to enter Stage 2.
KWEB - ETF for China Internet Companies
CMP 35
Weekly Chart
Trying to establish Stage 2
Broke the trading range 1 and now trying to break trading range 2.
Tesla
CMP 181
Is it start of wave 5 ! Let’s wait .
The confirmation will come if it crosses its previous high.But let’s first wait for it to cross/close above 40WEMA for a week or two for building good position in it.
TDG’
CMP 728
A 3 years break -out with volumes.
Zoom
CMP 78
Is the correction over?
Break-out from wedge is the first signal. Clear RSI divergence.
Will add more if it gives all confirmations of Stage 2 in coming weeks.
NVDA
CMP 209
Early Stage 2 signals.
MELI
CMP 1214
A defence sector play in US
Early Stage 2 signs.
Disclaimer :This post is just for learning few methods of price-patterns. Views are personal. No buy/sell recommendations. These are probability study methods and chances of success/failure depend upon various factors.