Varroc Engineering
CMP 455
Let’s track the other one !
Broke out today with crazy volumes.
Wave III of 3 started. As of now in wave i of III , made the first entry ,would wait for a pullback in wave ii of III. for adding more.
If I go with EW targets, the figure looks really big.
NEXT IMPORTANT resistance is 528
In stage 2. Weekly MACD also giving buy signal.
Disclaimer- Chart for study purpose.
When they raid the barn, they get all the chickens - MM
Be careful in Indian market too, we are going to get a long pending Wave 2.
Nifty
As mentioned last week, we moved up in B wave, now the downward journey has begun.
Final confiramtion will come once we break 16960…wave C can go upto 16160 .
The fall can be more deeper but depends how the structure develops in coming weeks.
Would keep an eye and reveiw it by the end of next week again.
What are the targets in quess?
As of now - no targets.
Quality of breakout would suggest whether it can run ahead.
All the current set-ups are in danger-zone …can fail anytime as overall market sentiment is not supportive.
Check the post on Nifty.
When market falls, there are very rare sticks that can maintain their upmove.( When they raid the barn, they get all the chickens)
The stocks ready to give breakouts generally breakdown and take a rest till the market settles down.
Is stage investing applicable to consistent compounders which compunded over long periods of time?
Yes .
Try to enter when the stock enters in Stage 2 rather than at any random point. That would help you deploy your money at the right time ( opportunity-cost )
And get out when the stock enters in Stage 4. That would help you save yours profit that you might have build over long period of time.
Here are 3 examples from last 2 years of my entry /exit in HDFC Life , Solara, IDFC First
No hoping against hope …ride in when the momentum is on your side and exit when it runs out of the favor. ( Entries /Exits should be plaaned on gradual basis- as sometimes you get few whipsaws at 30 WMA ( or 150 DMA)
Keep in mind that no-one can catch excat tops and bottoms, but following this method , you can save lot of your time as well as drawdowns.And it keeps your emotions/baises on the bay.
But if you are a very -very long term investor, you can use 40 Week Moving Average . That might save you lot of entry/exit points .
Also there are some additional method to follow where to exit at 40 WMA ( not all breaches are exit-signals )
Examples of Reliance and Aarti Industry — by using 40 WMA – you can ride maximum of the upside-momentum.
But if you’re next level investor, Buy & Forget type, then 40 Months Moving Average should be tracked.
Here is example of Indusind Bank… once 40 Month Moving Average was breached…check the level of the fall and it never came back at the same levels.
Hope it helps.
Long Term Investing -40 Months Moving Average
Very -very long term investors can use 40 Months moving average to ride on consistent compounders for decades.
The example given above was of IndusInd Bank-how it broke 40 Months Moving Average and went into a free-fall.
Here are 2 more examples in this context from US Market:
Amazon
Recently has broken 40 months moving average after 13 years ( 2009-2022) - but one would have made multibagger returns just by simply tracking the stock on this moving average.
Apple
Still moving above 40 monts moving average from 2009.
Blockquote
As updated 10 days back - Cupid worked, NGL Finechem failed miserably (came very close to previous lows)
So what will be the next trigger for buy/sell for both…
Cupid already in Stage 2 - can add on correction.
NGL Finechem - far away from 200 DMA ,it is in Stage 4.…need to wait .
Let it settle down first, make a base i.e. S1 ( moving with in a range after forming the bottom)…then let it cross 30 WMA with volumes …in short long wait.
Cupid : -check the above post.But as of now ,wait for the correction as RSI needs to cool down a bit.
from 596 to 525 ----as pointed out 12 days back.
You don’t know the bottom once a stock enters S4.
Nifty - in correction- most likely this scenario to play out !
Open the charts posted 9 days back. Let’s see.
JKIL - Playing exactly as per the chart
Posted when price was 214, came down to 201 …today touched 250 ( in a bad market). 6-7 set-ups out of 10 don’t disappoint if you understand the technicals well -enough and keep a stop-loss while investing.
Be careful guys - we are in a bear market now - in Wave 2 , in Stage 4 .
We might get a counter-bouce today (short-covering ) and few bounce-backs here and there in coming days but overall the trend remains towards downside.
Small rallies might come and bear-market rallies are fast and furious - deceiving everyone that we’re back in a bull market. But these are opportunities to sell .
In short - it is a ‘Sell-on Rise’ market.
What about strong fundamental compainies 
Market is driven by liquidity , as of now liquidity is being sucked by the central banks .
When a high tide (liquidity ) comes , even stones start floating and when a low tide comes even fish start suffocating. And currently ,we’re in low-tide , low liquidity situation.
Stock prices of almost all good companies have already run ahead of their rational valutaions-level, time to catch-up.
Stock prices of good companies might go through 2 types of correction - price correction as well as time-correction.
Can you check leading companies in
Hotel sector…Indian hotel, lemontree, eih,
Defence… BEL, BDL,
Paper…jk paper, satia inds, tnpl.
Naukri -InfoEdge
CMP 4100
Seems to be a perfect shorting candidate .
In Stage 4, Wave 1 complete - now in wave 2
And a head and shoulder on the top.
What else one can ask in life
Disclaimer :These all are probabilities - can or can’t happen. Chart for learning purpose.
Sir
Indian Hotel, Lemon Tree - both are in long term uptrned - currently facing channel resitance. May correct a bit more ( with overall sentiments also being subdued/negative)
In Defence - BEL seems to be completing its last leg. Till the time it is above 225 , can go upto 270-280 . Below 225 , should give a deep correction (currently monthly RSI also overheated)
BDL - can go near 1000 with ups and downs ( market sentiments 
), RSI need to cool down a bit on both weekly/monthly time -frame before the start of next leg.
In papers : JK papers looks good …long way to go …currently facing channel resistance…can correct a bit alongwith overall markets but looks like that one can hold it if bought from lower levels .Even TNPL seems to be in good position, but this also facig upper channel resistance, may correct a bit in coming days as weekly RSI is overheated.Satia -Very confusing chart as per EW , so unable to comment.
Disclaimer: Holding JK Papers,TNPL, Indian Hotels from lower levels, views can be baised.
