I see that for a 500 point dip in Dow, post the Fed-hike, there is hardly 65 points dip in nifty (I mean, looking at SGX nifty)… I had noticed this trend that the fall in Dow/Nasdaq is hardly replicated in Nifty. in the last several months…there is some reaction by a token amount in comparison to the degree of fall in US markets. On the other hand, if there is a green candle in Dow, Nifty doubles up with lot more gusto, in upward direction. Are we really decoupled? Somehow, I sense that all the known negatives are already discounted in Nifty and nothing seems to shake it up. I am keen to know your (@StageInvesting ) view on the post-Diwali fall that you had hinted, now that Fed has done its part…thx a ton
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India has been an outperformer as compared to global equity markets and it seems that it would continue to remain so.
Global equity fund managers need some place to hide (after rout in China and recession expectatiosn is Europe/USA) ,India is providing a good opportunity.
Another factor is sector-roation - in last two and half years , there has been a beautiful sector -rotation and that is helping our markets to stay strong .
As far as Index is concerned, that does not really show the situation of the broader- Indian markets. It is not equally weighted index and can be managed easily by managing few heavy -weight stocks.But still , we might fall in coming months . Closing below 17900 would be the first signal.
For investors, the opportunities and challanges lie in broader markets - and the journey has not been smooth. Many so-called great stocks have corrected a lot , they might remain sideways for coming weeks.
Our view is to remain on sideways with one foot in the water ( 25-30% exposure) where either growth-stocks have corrected a lot and are showing some signs of bottoming out and looking for opportunities in turnaround sectors (power, PSU banks, Pharma etc)
Would post our 3-6 months view once we get clear signals of the future trend !
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Thx always , for prompt response. The Covid low for Hong Kong China Index was 8800 in Mar’20… and today it’s at 4900… down 40% from there! To put it in perspective, Nifty COVID low was around 7600 and today it’s at 18,000 i.e. up 140%!!
Somehow , it beats me to fathom that we can be lone out performer like that in a connected world , we live. Will await keenly for your views. Thx again
Follow-up 2
CMP 90
A=C comes to be near 80 but C waves happen to extend many a times …so more pain expected.
Monthly Chart
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TFCI -Follow-up
CMP 89
If everything goes well and the stock is able to close above 90.50 , we might head towards 124-128
At 124-128 level , wave 3 becomes equal to wave 1 and that also coincides with 61.8 % retracement level of the whole fall as well as that is another resistance zone.
Disclaimer :This post is just for learning few methods of price-patterns. Views are personal. No buy/sell recommendations. These are probability study methods and chances of success/failure depend upon various factors
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Unichem Labs -Follow-up
CMP 455
Earlier covered it a month back at 383.
Today it might close above 2nd trading -zone.
If everything goes well, long way to go.
Weekly Chart
Keep in consideration that weekly chart views take few weeks/months to play -out.
Disclaimer :This post is just for learning few methods of price-patterns. Views are personal. No buy/sell recommendations. These are probability study methods and chances of success/failure depend upon various factors
Redington -Follow-up
CMP 159
Well ,the stock seems to be in wave 3 .
We have few immediate nearby resistances , once we cross them -long way to go.
Weekly Chart
Disclaimer :This post is just for learning few methods of price-patterns. Views are personal. No buy/sell recommendations. These are probability study methods and chances of success/failure depend upon various factors
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Dear Sir, I am regular follower of your thread and thank you for your updates. Need your analysis on Ganesh Benzoplast ltd.
Hey @StageInvesting, First many thanks for your stage based analysis. Could you please share your views on welspun Corp. Which stage it is currently appear to be.
Dear Stageinvesting,
As per Stage box - it shows around 400-410 as resistance - but as per the daily chart the support is too steep. Do you think it can hold on to the resistance of 400-410- just a bit nervous , was planning to exit on the result but still holding.
Thank you.
Paypal is in the zone again 
Any target for Microsoft?
Paypal
It might plunge more deeper, lower than the previous low (65) . Let’s wait it out.
Microsoft
CMP-214
It has achieved the previously projected target . It was given 6 months back.Let’s wait as more pain might be there . Next support is near 190-192.
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Welspun Corp
CMP -219
No clear direction .
As of now, don’t see anyjing special on it except that it is sitting on a crucial support (40 WMA) , it it breaks this then we can see it touching lower end of the channel ie.195-205.
And on upper side ,it has few strong resistances in the range of 235-245. It needs to close above these at least for 1-2 weeks if it has to move up. It failed to sustain longer-time-frame break-out in last few weeks.
Weekly Chart
Disclaimer :This post is just for learning few methods of price-patterns. Views are personal. No buy/sell recommendations. These are probability study methods and chances of success/failure depend upon v
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Ganesh Benzoplast
CMP 149
Stock is now in blue-sky zone ie. no left side resistances.
Volumes are also picking -up gradually but would love to see more stronger volumes.
If we were you, we would keep riding it till it keeps moving above 20 DMA and would partially exit if it breaks it and would be fully out if it breaks 40 WMA.
Weekly Chart
Disclaimer :This post is just for learning few methods of price-patterns. Views are personal. No buy/sell recommendations. These are probability study methods and chances of success/failure depend upon varius factors.
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@StageInvesting Thx for giving your views on Bajaj Finance. I had also asked another widely analyzed stock HDFC Bank …awaiting your views on that
TVS Srichakra
Is it strating a new wave?
Well it is at a crucial juncture - 2750 is an important level.
If it is really strating the next wave - it might first go to previous All Time High .
Monthly Chart
Keep in consideration - it is a monthly chart- they play out in months and sometimes in a year.
Disclaimer :This post is just for learning few methods of price-patterns. Views are personal. No buy/sell recommendations. These are probability study methods and chances of success/failure depend upon varius factors.
Jubiliant Food-Follow-up
It seems B wave bounce was smaller than expected. And now we’re in wave C.
For detailed analysis, please see the above post (written about a month back).
Disclaimer :This post is just for learning few methods of price-patterns. Views are personal. No buy/sell recommendations. These are probability study methods and chances of success/failure depend upon varius factors.
Bitcoin Update -After 6 months.
Bitcoin made 52 weeks low today .
Would it go near 10000 in this fall ?
Or it would go to 4000 ? Let’s see . These are important support levels.
Disclaimer :These are probabilties set-up studies . These are based on historical price patterns among different securities. But these can fail and there is no guarantee on either side. Use your own studies and discretion. We are just sharing it for learning purposes- please don;t take it a buy or sell recommendation.
