Dear Stageinvesting,
I want to thank you for starting this thread. If i had not read it, I would have bought the dip too soon. One question I have is if I want to start a mutual fund SIP, should I wait. What would be the indication that now is a good time to start. Recency bias scares me that I might not get opportunity to buy once market turns.
Thanks a lot 
this question on deploying in MF is even more important, if one is deploying via lumpsum (with or without SIP)âŚkeenly awaiting the answer from StageinvestingâŚbut, having seen his messages, there is no rush hereâŚyou have amply made it clear that there is no v shape quick recovery here, unlike 2020 and hence, it will give ample time for regular SIP method to deployâŚhaving said that, i donât want to miss out on lumpsum on close to the bottom and hence keen to know the answer
Lumpsum is really good when it is a black-swan event related fall as the recovery is faster ( eg Kargill, Demonetisation, Covid )
Lumpsum can also be good when we see a recovery in the market âŚbut currently it seems to be months away.
This is current view based on current facts - will change my views when the facts change. But one thing is sure, we will get enough time to deploy our money back as it is not a black-swan related fall , it is a bear market correctin - recovery (whenever it happens) would be slow .
Top Wick Of A Candle- A Great Indicator
Candle stick pattern study is a subject by itself ( few people just trade based on candles)
Without getting deep into these candle-stick study, let me share with you an interesting part of the candle and how it can help you in understanding the movement of prices & likley future for the same.
In the following picture , you can see what is the wick part of a candle ( the green /red are known are known as bodies, the up or down side small ticks are knowns as wicks)
Wicks are helpful at many places, but let me point out the importance of a bigger upper wick in two type of situations
1 Breakout Situations
At the breakout of trading-range or tentative S2 breaout above 30 WMA - if the upper wick of last candle is big ,that means that sellers became dominant - buyers took the price higher but sellers kept on selling and price closed at the lower level.
This signifies - sellers wonât let the price go higher and break-out would fail.
Two examples :
Sterling Tools ( someone asked last week)
See what happend wheneve it tried to break the range âŚbig size upper wick and the breakout failed.
2. Forming a top
Whenever you find a stock is trying to make all time high but you find these kind of candles with a bigger upper wicks - it is a warning sign that upward jurney may not be sustainable. Buyers are selling whenever price tries to reach higher.
Force Motor
Hester Bio
Keep in mind , bigger upper wick in these sitatuations are only one of the warning signs - may or may not work in all cases as we need to look at other aspects also but for an average investor, it is time to be cautious.
And if youâre planning to buy this stock, it is betterr to wait for few days and you might get it cheaper . But the real upwards jorney will start when stock price starts closing above the higher levels of these big -wicks- candles.
I have another answer.
You can check the benchmark index for that fund and see how that index is performing, and then take the call of investing right away or wait. Sometimes Nifty does not fall as much as the midcap and smallcap indices. And even with dip too, we can do SIP kind of investment, buying only when the current level is lesser than previous level.
If we are confident of the fall, we can wait, otherwise build a position slowly with each predefined dip percentage. Having a position when we are not sure is also not bad, if it makes us active, helps to spend more time and makes us a better investor.
Experience is the best teacher, whichever way we gain it, and I am trying to gain it many ways, I am buying some and waiting too.
Bitcoin now at 18800âŚwill it go to near 3500? 
Letâs wait and watch. It has major implications on US markets as well as economy alsoâŚbig crypto funds are going bankrupt, negative sentiments of an average crypto investor ! A great example of euphoria in a social-media stage.
Humans never change. Understand humans behaviour and you can navigate the markets very well as buyers and sellers happen to be humans everywhere.
There are members who are more experienced than you in VP, members who may have got 25% CAGR for 20 years, members who own 1% of a company, members who started advisory services. A lot of members learn from Dr. Hitesh, me included, and he showed great respect for a very senior investor. Such is the league of VP. And they havenât made such remarks, so please refrain from making certain remarks. I have seen this before too, belittling ordinary investors, please donât do that.
I am still learning, I am evolving and I have come a long way from where I have started, and I have clearly mentioned that I am gaining experience, work under construction. I could very well be utterly wrong with my current choices, but each future decision will yield better results. Many thanks to the wonderful folk of VP. And we all learn in different ways.
Finally, what suits you may not suit me. There are crores of people in India who may not have heard about mutual funds and invest in chits, as long as they are getting what they want, they donât bother about anything else, they donât need to.
Suum cuique.
Fundamental and technical investing are two different things.
For example, Buffet has never bought according to technicals. Buffet buys when there is opportunity.
Market is big, everybody has its place.
Cheers
I thought if I should reply or not and decided to do so because you are posting useful technical analysis and etiquettes should not spoil the flow of information.
Iâm a firm believer of technical analysis.
You may be talented, genius but if you are not humble, people wouldnât care.
You cannot call someone average without knowing them personally & even otherwise.
Generally,
Past few years, if someone is running a small business or just started investing, they have been going through demonetisation, GST, slowing economy, COVID, vaccinations, health issues, mental health issues due to being at home alone and now inflation. Despite all this, so many people in this forum have been researching a lot and posting detailed company threads and helping fellow investors become better. So, let that spirit stay like that by being respectful to each other in disagreement.
All the best. This is just a friendly nudge, donât take it otherwise. Put the information out there without bias and let people take their own decisions.
Agree everyne has a place.
Yes Buffet does not follow technical analysis as technical analysis is based on the volume /price action. And big-investors like Buffet create that volume/price action by themselves.
Technical -analysis helps small,medium investors to see what big-money is doing.
People like Buffet create data-points for technical-analysis , as he is one of the big-money and buys/sells in huge volumes. For him, fundamental nalysis suits better.
Other point about Buffet - his style may not suit each and every investor . Investing at large scale , buying/selling few % shareholding of a company is very very different from what a small/medium level investor can do.
Other point is time-horizon and financial goals in oneâs life. Buffetâs time -horizon and financial goals can be vastly different from a small/medium type investor.
ON Lessons -Apart from learning many valuable lessons from Buffet, the biggest lesson for me has been his big cash positions. He sits on a pile of cash ( a high % of his portfolio ) and waits for the right time to dive -in.
Based on above bearish patterns, letâs look at few of these patterns happening live in the markets in next few weeks/months.
( Lots of charts showing similar patterns, just sharing few. Be cautious on overall markets , it ay bounce but structure on many charts not so encouraging)
Rectangle Breakdowns
Redington (discussed few days back at higher levels
AB Capital (Shared a month back)
Alcargo
Rupa (shared few days back also under textiles)
Titan
H & S breakdowns
Canara Bank
Pidilite (shared few days back also)
Prince Pipes ( shared few days back)
Disclaimer: (i) These charts are for study purpose only. No suggestion , no recos. Just trail and watch.
(ii) Nothing happens overnight or in straight line.
(iii) Few or all of these patterns may fail also. If markets were so easy, anyone can become billionaire
I was in a similar dilemma as mentioned by @richdreamz
Dear StageInvesting,
You are extremely talented and a helpful soul. I am proud of your endowment.
Genuine appreciation, please accept it.
Almighty has been kind to give you enough strength and intelligence to reach a Higher Stage. Of course owing to your own hard work & focus and hence you should take Pride in what you do, in such a refined way. Kudos!
The recent messages from the forum users and moderators is an indication that something is amissâŚno, not in the chart analysis but the tone.
I would humbly request you to take notice of same and acknowledge (to self).
That was the message, since you may not like long, beating around the bush, philosophical type response.
Since I am getting a platform to share my views, allow me to elaborateâŚthis will be boring, long and at times off topicâŚthose interested can continue to readâŚitâs a Sunday afternoon for me and I have ample time
Valuepickr is an excellent forum and I am proud of being part of this forum, to observe, read various posts & learn and then maybe after few years take the liberty of sharing own viewpoint (like I am doing now).
People from all walks of life might be visiting VP forum, some registered users, others might be just visiting casually.
The forum provides a platform to engage in healthy discussion and learn something new.
In market, for a transaction to happen, there has to be a seller and a buyer and as per William Feather:- One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.
A theist (opposite of atheist) visiting a place of his/her faith maybe there to share his sorrow or joy. Not all people who visit a hospital are ill, some are there to take care of them (The Doctors). Posts from @ChaitanyaC & @richdreamz tried to share their viewpoint, this is after the two moderators hinted previous engagements.
Greek philosopher Socrates after knowing most quoted - "The only thing I know, is that I know nothing.â
Similar sentiments were also shared by Mir & Zauq
My favourite
Your move, chief
Dear StageInvesting, if you are still reading, have witnessed many talented and extremely intelligent people missing out a lot in life, because of the human aspect/soft skill whatever one wants to name it. vice vs virtue : both starts with V, as the two characters in Mythology do with R.
Humbleness is a must have virtue
The man who sleeps on the floor can never fall out of bed
You are smart and have talent, i wish you all the best and hope you keep engaging positively and grow in every aspect of your life.
My sincere apology if any of my words hurt you. it is human nature - a physical attack (not life threatening- a small tap/push on physical body) is ignored/forgiven at times or the wound even heals fast. However, the wounds created by words take a long to heal because it hurts my egoâŚmy identity. This vice has to be monitored and controlled carefully.
Peace.
Well- on lighter note -would like to say in proverbial sense that I seem to be a bull entered in a China shop - ie a different approach person than the usual ones.
Any ways , as a technical + fundamental investor , we also tend to to get multibaggers- only thing is that we try to ride and exit at the right time.
Unfortunately , history of this thread is only 2 months old, the time when we entered the BEAR market so there is no multibagger idea to show as track record.
Would like to say that try to understand technicals little more serioursly and you would realie that combined with fundamental reseasch ,it is a good approach for long-term investing. May be if this thread continues here for 3-5 years , people like you would get the proof ( donât want to brage about the past as thereâs no thread to show that )
Rest is everyoneâs choice - few people donât want to come out of comfort-zone ( of one way of looking at the things ) and no fault of theirs- most of the people live their lives in comfort-zones of one set of beliefs.
This thread is an effort to help those who apprach the life in more open-minded fashion.
Sometimes this happens because the buyer and seller operate on different time scales
A short term holder might buy to take advantage of a rally during a bear market and his holding period might be in days whereas a medium term holder will exit if he sees medium term prospects not good. Whereas a long term holder like a promoter might buy with a different time scale
This is best explained by James dalton in markets in profile
Bear Market Vs Bull Market Corrections
Buying-the-dip vs waiting !
For investing one should try to understand the difference in these two to have a better investing approach.
As per Elliot Waves basic, market moves in cycles and there are waves in-between.Every big upside/dowside wave has 5 waves with -in. Once the 5 waves get completed, the trend in other side starts.
Similarly as per Dow theory ( Dow Jones Index is named after him), there are different phases in the market as following
The practitioner of these theories try to find out when 5 waves are complete or to identify the distribution phase.
The study is based on counting the waves as well as looking at volume/price actions to understand accumulation/distribution phases. This analysis is combined with macro-environment and economic cycles .
Many a times , economic down-cycle and bear market overlaps and many a times there is time -lag as market works as a robust future -discounting mechanism.
Because when one sided 5 waves move is over or accumulation phase is over, the bigger bear market starts that can last for months and years.
Till the time, you are in one side upward going 5 waves or in accumulation phases , buy-the -dip makes sense. But when the 5 waves get over or accumulation phase ends, it is the time either to sell or wait till the time next upmove cycle starts.
From the day one,when we began this thread, we are suggesting to not-to-buy the dip .
Stages-Based-Investing model also works on these theories and makes the identication of different pahses.
Macro environment as well as Elliot -wave count suggests that weâre in bigger wave 2 (Stage 4) and weâve been warning that correction is going to be brutal as we entered the bear-market few months back.
No post in this thread is based on gut feelings. All the macro-factors , matehmatical models , historical evidences have been shared in this thread.
So be careful- there are times to buy-the-dip and there are times to sit on cash and let the storm pass.
For more knowledge, please go through the thread from the beginning.
What macros are we considering here? And what developments you think are bound to come as in time of w3 on a bigger TF? Also this could be an extended w5 as we had 2 waves of normal length (Possibility) and this has possibility of being a w4 of w5, Currently flat (As w4 tend to be flatâs if not witnessed in w2) and a final shorter 5th wave of bigger w5 can also occur, Only if this current 5 wave move is completed well and co-relate with wave personalities, As we already had 3-3 and this could be 5
This forumâs people are bullish biased and seem quite sensitive. He says something about people being smart-on-surface and people take umbrage about that.
Why would you - are you the âsmart on surfaceâ that he describes?
Itâs kinda like twitter - with silencing voices you donât want to hear. If you donât like to hear what he has to say, donât read it and mute this thread. (I only got to know what he is saying with all those deleted posts cause Iâm subscribed to this thread by e-mail).
Since last two years Iâve been reading posts after posts on how the companies are so great and all and all I could think is what hogwash, everybodyâs going up ONLY due to liquidity and the moment the liquidity goes (due to inflation) all this hogwash would be washed away - and yet nobody takes umbrage on that.
Would like to say that his ideas are very helpful and would like that he is giving target.
Let me put in my two cents worth here.
No analysis technique - fundamental, technical, quantitative, objective, subjective, astrology (!!!???) etc is fulproof. Nothing. All analysis techniques can and are often wrong. Otherwise, all investors would be billionaires.
SInce all techniques are probability-based, to say anything in the markets with utmost confidence is actually foolhardy. History has proved that to be right time and again.
I am personally a practitioner of technical analysis. It is probabilistic. We need to give it its due but also understand its limitations and how and when it can blindside you. TA does not work well at market turns. That is why you will find TAs just projecting the current trend in the future. If the market is bearish, they forecast more bearishness and if it is bullish, they forecast more bullishness.
The most important aspect that investing teaches us is to be humble. Because everyone makes mistakes and we need to allow for our mistakes.
Actively search for disconfirming evidence. Having only bullish views and disliking the harbinger of poor news (or shooting the messenger) is not a good reaction. If you are bullish, hear our the evidence carefully from people who are bearish. And vice-versa. Ultimately, we need to decide our investments based on our timeframes and our mindset and risk taking ability. If I am investing to create a generational portfolio, I may welcome a sharp decline. If I am a trader, I might be happy to go short etc etc. The difference of opinion is what makes a market.
There is no place on VP for people who are rude to anyone. Please maintain the decorum of the forum. Deal in facts. Form your own opinions.
I think this statement must be carved in stone and in our minds, Thanks @basumallick for sharing this wisdomâŚand it is precisely this realization which makes all of us âhumbleâ
Again a very important aspect in order to maintain our sanity both in times of euphoria and distress avoiding both FOMO & panicâŚthanks
Yes, thats what makes a market and hearing each other with respect is what makes this so beautiful!
Dear Basu ji
Would like to know the reason for following .
The following post (My Long Portfolio ) has been removed by admin-saying that it is an advertisement .
We are not selling any services . We were challenged by one guy and many other are making fun of us saying that we canât get long term mutibaggers by technical - analysis. But we intend to prove otherwise in an open forum in coming years.
Please give us a chance . If weâre successful , people would learn something new. If we fail, we fail and would be proved stupids. Let time be the judge.
There are many people here who run PMS/Advisories/You Tube channels - their posts and threads are not removed. Why this differetial tratment for out post ?
If the moderators and few of other guys are not happy with our contrarian view, we would exit this platform. But please be fair . Thanks a lot for your attention.
