Sobha Developers - Steep discount?

Few points:

This unorganised to organised thing is a market narrative. What actually happens is the more efficient players gain market from inefficient ones. By saying unorganized to organised, we imply that unorganised are inefficient which is just not true. For example, another narrative generally floated is retail investors are stupid and institutional ones are good. If that was the case, we wouldn’t be having this discussion on this forum. In economics, this is postulated as productivity growth. I have explained the impact of productivity growth on business cycles in more details in the cyclical investing post.

The affordability graph, and for that matter any other metric should be looked at from a relative prism. I track multiple indicators such as affordability graph, RESIDEX prices, etc. The broad trend is prices are way more affordable now than in 2013.

The long term trend is urbanization, younger demographics, increased GDP/capita. This happens over decades whereas themes such as WFH, unorganized to organized, GST consolidation, are market fads to keep participants excited. Real estate is not a 1 or 2 quarter cycle, it takes ~3 years just to deliver a project. Typical downcycles and upcycles last much longer than other businesses. The current downcycle ended in 2017, in 2018, 19 and 20 every reputed company has sold more flats YOY. So this is not a 1 quarter phenomenon that I am jumping on. I have covered this in much more details (from also a money supply perspective) in the cyclical investing post.

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