You have missed out the very long term macrotrend of urbanization, individual families rather than joint families, and the median Indian age of 27. Houses are bought by an individual in their late 30s, so about 500 million individuals (~200 mn families) will buy houses over the next 15 years. Also how does automation and AI impact demand for residential real estate? How does virtual education impact demand for residential real estate? How does better internet connectivity impact demand for residential real estate? We shouldn’t be missing the wheat for the chaff based on a given macro disruption event, and a given narrative.
India is a grossly underpenetrated market in terms of home ownership (just like every other thing because we are still quite poor). It will be more useful if we try to study the impact of macro shocks on real-estate based on actual data points rather than a narrative.
Real-estate is a pure demand supply game, and interest rates have a large impact on creating demand. Currently, home loans are offered at attractive terms (starting at 7% to salaried individuals link). State governments has started offering incentives by reducing stamp duty (link). Demand has kept growing over the last 5 years, whereas supply has shrunk (see RBI report and corresponding post). The residential real-estate prices have gone up (not down) for most major micromarkets barring Delhi NCR (look at the NHB residex chart for FY20 report). There are lots of other factors at play the importance of which shouldn’t be omitted. Anyway, we shouldn’t be discussing general real-estate in this thread because its supposed to be discussion around Sobha, which is a play on Bangalore micromarket.