SmallCap Hunter : Trying to find the dark horses with triggers

It is said that, when valuations go into froth zone, markets/stocks look for a reason to fall, any reason, and the reasons while valid, the reactions need not be logical every time.

Broadly speaking w.r.t the markets, one can think of going along with the market, act in accordance with the market, and w.r.t specific stocks, there could be a few different scenarios, one could start taking a position, and see what happens, because the price after a fall in some stocks may very well be a good support, so there may not be more fall, not that prices will not fall more, even the bluest of the blue fall, but this is another scenario. Consolidation is another scenario. One could look at the % of falls in the specific indices, or the stocks in the watch list, for some visibility.

I think, it is hard to follow the price of a small cap, compared to a large cap, so one has to be more careful.

So, depending upon the understanding of the business, and price levels, one can come up with different scenarios and the likelihood of them happening, and take decisions.

I have positions in mid and small caps, but these are only for shorter term, so on days like today, SLs come flying, I cannot stop them, so take my views with a good amount of salt.

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@LarryWink As per your observation of historical trends by Howard Marks, smallcaps have had 2years of downtrend, but where is the rally?
I am expecting atleast a year of rally starting this year or next. Or maybe we are in the midst of a longer term rally

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Benaras and TaJGVK are also worth studying.

Is anyone tracking Emerald Finance?

Refex is not only in refrigerant filing 80% of its business comes from coal ash handling which is deep cyclical in nature every 2 or 4 month they receive order.
It will increase your Blood pressure only with LC.
Hope that helps

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Anyone tracking HFCL & Blackbox. HFCL has posted a bad result. Anyone share insights of the two companies who are in telecom hardware.

I have 270 shares of refex at 671, down by 16% today…any suggestions. I can’t find any substantial information on its corporate governance or leaders! Any suggestions/ advise would be appreciated!

TRIL - Transformers & Rectifiers.

Tried to understand based on a ready report.
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Transformers and Rectifiers (India) (NSEI_TRIL) - Simply Wall St.pdf (2.2 MB)

After going through above report , What catches the eye is:
1.PE~100.
2.Fair value >800%

I tend to presume the above report might be based on insufficient data.

However screener presents more or less same PE
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Although the stock price swings are extreme, it is continously moving in only one direction.

The query - What could be driving the price ? , is it in a froth ?

D-Invested.

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Is anyone tracking sunil industry, main bussiness in railway seat .
Disc at present not invested

On the face of it, 2nd quarter 23 results of Lykis look subdued. However, on consolidated basis, the net operating cash flow has turned substantially positive for the first time after new management took over. 1.5cr, who initiated the thread in May this year, and others tracking the company, any comments?

Anyone tracking IFL enterprise ltd. Recently they have won loads of export orders for paper supply . They also have signed on Australian firm for joint venture .loads of positives but stock price falling . Any views

Bharat Bijlee also in Transformers and Industrial motors industry with low PE comparing with peers

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This didn’t age well.

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Anyone tracking Libas?

Yeah Bharat Bijlee is in Transformer and rectifier manufacturing. This is a Highly cyclical industry and material cost is a big part of the overall Sales. Even though PE looks attractive there are so many players with similar cost structure. There is no Entry Barriers and any small change in Copper LME / Steel Prices can affect the Bottom Line, as generally there is no Pass through clause in most contracts.

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I also bet on International Conveyors looking at the results which just came out. Even with lower revenues, the company managed to increase MARGINS, which tells me that they have a pricing upper hand.

Also, the business is niche and possibly cyclical in nature. Mines which are restarting or mines which need upgrades, would require new conveyor belts.

Interestingly, the public holding is kinda coming down, which is a GOOD thing.

Forward PE of 5, means there is a good valuation comfort as well.

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And the icing on the cake is the continuous promoter buying.
Only tracking.

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They seem to be making more money from their investment in the share market than their core operations. Explains why they have been investing heavily in the stocks (recently Gufic Bio and Aegis Logistics). I would stay away. They are no different than a holding company.

They have multiple business units, all mutually exclusive (Conveyor Belts, Wind Energy, Goods trading, Equity investment, diworsification?) Capital allocation and corp governance seem to be an issue here.

Disc: Tracking, not interested right now.

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is any on tracking shardul securities last two quater had been robust result

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The holding company keeps on holding stock and doesn’t sell whereas in treasury ,they keep on rotating the stocks based on performance. This is the difference.