SmallCap Hunter : Trying to find the dark horses with triggers

Next sector in line
Q1.Telcom sector ? ( I hear some quant funds are loading telecom hardware, telecom software, telecom infra)
Q2. What is the usual time frame by when the hot sector is known to investors ?
Q3. Which are the Big funds/ Big guys to follow, to learn about the sector in the favour ?

any views ?

I have very limited experience with small cap stocks, and most of such stocks did not give big returns for me, one reason being I invested in them with any knowledge, particularly the ones at the beginning, a few years ago. Invested in many different stocks, with mixed results.

I guess, one question that has to be asked is the expectation from such stocks, the reason why one has invested, was the expectation a multibagger, or small becoming medium and to big, in other words one that can be held for years, or anything else.

What kind of an investor you are, in the sense that, would you feel bad if you sell and see the stock go up by another 100% after you sell, or your focus in on finding on other such bets, along with the fact that you have got some experience now?

The entire process I guess is independent, in the sense that, each stock is different, as it is company with a different business, and the process is also intertwined with other factors like the expectation being met, fear of losing the profit, or cannot let the stock go because of a gut feeling that it will go up after selling.

Until one finds which style suits oneself, what kind of profits or losses are affordable, practically and emotionally, these type of questions will always exist, and they are normal. I would have feel very bad if I see a stock go down by 50% a few years ago, but now even if it falls by 20%, I will look at it and take a decision. My point is that, this is all learning, and the decision of selling even at a good profit may turn out to be wrong in the future, but this will help in understanding and taking better decisions in the future.

For someone who has 93% in small caps, I would say, can you afford a 30% fall in price at PF level, and is time on your side to build such a PF again, with more knowledge than before, and with experience.

I don’t hold any small cap stocks, although I speculate in them for shorter periods, and I try to be agile in booking profits when I get rewarded beyond my expectation, so take my views for what they are worth, with a lot of salt.

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You are right - I noticed that Quant MF has increased exposure to HFCL.

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Standalone Hotels with low Marketcap

I was under the impression that Hotel Leela (HLV) is the most attractive (listed) smallcap hotel until I came across a fellow VP’s post regarding RHL. I then decided to explore more such companies, and found the following list of hotel stocks. My criteria was ownership of one hotel (4/5 Star), negligible debt and Zero pledge.

  1. Asian Hotels East (Hyatt Kolkata)
  2. Robust Hotels (Hyatt Chennai)
  3. Royale Manor (The Ummed Ahmedabad)
  4. Savera (The Savera, Chennai)
  5. HLV Ltd (The Leela, Mumbai)
  6. Advani Hotels (Caravela Resort, Goa)

The only trigger that I can think of, is the World Cup!

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CyberTech is growing very well. Its cashflow statement is really good and also even being a small cap its reserves are increasing really very good… can someone give a detail view on its business, it will be very helpfull

Did you know that ideaForge is India’s largest Drone company and Infosys holds more than 4% stake in this company? The IPO price was 672/- (oversubscribed 106 times) while it listed at 1300/-. It is currently trading at 823/-

The global drone market size is expected to reach US$ 30 Billion by the end of 2022, and it is further predicted to experience double-digit growth, with a CAGR of 25% from 2022-2032, to reach valuation of US$ 279 Billion by the end of the aforementioned forecast period.(Source)

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Also see lemon tree as this one is fast growing and adding more rooms regularly

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Even at 823/SH it is trading at 112 PE, 3400cr MCAP for 34cr PAT seems excessive. Just at the first look, couple of things stand out.

  1. While 90% revenue is from drone sales, there is inventory of 623 days? Worth looking into it
  2. Normally such companies make more money from post sales services / additional revenue drivers from same customer - while that did grow from 0.3 to 0.5%; it does feel smallish to begin with.
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Yes, Lemon Tree is good, and they would soon start operations in their 650+ rooms’ hotel near the International Airport in Mumbai. However, for this discussion, I am evaluating listed companies with only one property.

Agree with your points, and it explains the reason for the recent fall. Hopefully Q2 results would be better and situation might improve slightly. Looking at the Q1 results, I believe that all the Drone Companies (ideaForge, Zen and Droneacharya) will trade at <60 P/E after the Q2 results.

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Excellent analysis. Froth is apparently there if a business is at 70-80 PE valuation. But it does not mean that it would not stretch to 90 or 100 PE, given the euphoria. So keep riding such winners is a good idea. One stage 2 sets in, exit is imperative.

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Ideaforge - advantages are that they are among the first to start commercial activities. But
drone market is India is starting to get heavily congested and there are more than 100 players. Goods news is that low payload and range and being left to private entities while HAL, L&T are into highly niche areas like high altiude , high payload or weapons platforms ( Archer, Ghatak)
The defence market is the biggest one in India. And Positive indigenization list that is being released by Defence minister which puts higher hurdle on imports and nudges the forces to insource. Right now, we do import a lot from China but efforts are on to start everything locally. +ve sign here: Press Information Bureau

Fifth Positive Indigenisation List

The Fifth Positive Indigenisation List has been prepared by DMA after several rounds of consultations with all stakeholders. It lays special focus on import substitution of components of major systems besides important platforms, weapon system & sensors and munitions which are being developed and likely to translate into firm orders in the next five to ten years.

Prominent items include Futuristic Infantry Combat Vehicle, Articulated All-Terrain Vehicles, Remotely Piloted Air Borne Vehicles upto 25 Km with 2Kg Payload for Army, Naval Shipborne Unmanned Aerial System, Medium Upgrade Low Endurance Class Tactical Drone,

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Is anyone tracking emerald finance? I found below new product from their AR:

The company in line with its vision to expand its offerings and to serve retail customers at large has already started working on its own salary advance solution. This product entails tying up with employers to offer short term loan as salary advance. The amount lent is then collected through salary deduction.

This is a niche product in India. This product is in vogue in developed countries like US and Europe. The company feels that this can grow into a significant business in future. The company already has experience of this product due to its earlier partnership with Rainpay India Pvt Ltd.
This solution will be completely digital and will use the latest digital technologies to provide a seamless experience to both employers and employees. The company is building this solution through internal resources.

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Yes…it is range bound 175-205…once H1 result comes out …direction will be decided.mostly northward jouyney…

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GKW Ltd
MCap of this company (GKW Ltd) is only 425Cr. It is unclear if this deal will result in any revenues for this company.

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KCP sugar industries (KCPSUGIND)…if Anyone is tracking ?

Hi,

Is anyone tracking Refex Industries?

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IIFL securities have come out with excellent numbers for Q2 FY24. The entire Wealth Management sector is witnessing tremendous growth as seen in results of Anand Rathi and other broking/wealth companies. IIFL Sec is perhaps the most undervalued stock in the wealth space

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By virtue, small/micro-caps are known to be volatile. Considering the recent run-up in these stocks, a significant correction was always around the corner.
It is all about patience, especially if you have complete faith in the management. Over a considerable period (over ten years), the small-cap funds have outperformed the other funds.

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I agree; at the same time, please be mindful of this: SAT stays Sebi ban on IIFL Securities from adding clients Hope this is not revoked.

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