Puneeth's Portfolio(Growing Alpha)

Hello everybody, I’m Puneeth a 15 year old investor from Bangalore. I began investing on October 20th 2021, after my mother telling me to begin investing while I was still young. I’m usually curious about new things, and I loved reading books on the same. I began with Intelligent Investor(as one does) and then read books by Peter Lynch(which are still by far my favorite). Soon I started working much more on investing, as it sparked my curiousity as a scientific art, not purely quant based nor is it purely narrative. I now genuinely learning more about investing and recently I have started to learn a bit more TA as well(keyword - started).

As I am in summer holidays, I have spent >8 hours on most days on investing/reading, whereas on most days with school I would work for 2 hours or so with genuine interest.

All book recommendations are welcome whether they are about investing or not(currently on The Biggest Bluff)

Aim

  1. To learn as much as possible on all methods and types of investing without discrimination(TA, FA, long term, short term, BAAP, Buy and Hold, High Churn, Momentum, Contra Deep Val, Concentrated, Diversified, Timing the markets etc.)
  2. To achieve 50% annualised returns over a decade out.
  3. Volatility is fine but aim to never blow up(Stoplosses etc.)
  4. Never stop doing brownfield capex on myself :grinning:

Why I aim for a highly unlikely 50%?
My aim for 50% CAGR returns for the next 10 years sounds like a very very far reach and impossible to achieve without excessive leverage or risk. Even veteran investors like Warren Buffet, Munger, Graham, Templeton, Pabrai, Soros, Lynch, Li Lu or Sleep do lower annualised returns, how would I possibly beat them? For starters, they do manage a much much larger portfolio than mine, where I would have an edge. It also means that I can afford to look into micro/small caps businesses that are out of reach to many. Even though Warren Buffet has compounded his money at 20%+ for 60+ years, it would not be prudent for me to aim the same while starting out. Warren Buffets were much larger during his initial years(where I am) with smaller capital. His initial partnership did 31% over the DJIA’s 5% over the same period. But he has mentioned how in the decade preceding the existence of the Buffet Partnerships he averaged around 50% compound annual returns, killing the Dow. I’m no Warren Buffet, but I will try my best to shoot my shot. My favourite investor Joel Greenblatt also crushed the S&P while returning 45% over 20 years, a legendary track record. He focused on special situations(spinoffs, a lot of them). He also ran an incredibly concentrated portfolio, at one point having 40% of his fund into the spinoff of Marriott(although they are preferential shares with a few privileges). Michael Burry did 50% in his initial years too. Finally, I believe in the growth story of India. I do think the situation for me, being born in the country I was born in, gives me tailwinds.

I believe the target is achievable, but time will tell.

I’m also rapidly expanding my circle of competence, and I will never stop doing Brownfield expansion on myself. I will continue to optimise and improve myself constantly(Kaizen). “Those who keep learning, will keep rising in life” - Charlie Munger. I will live by that statement. I will definitely make mistakes along the way, I will try my best to prevent them, but as they inevitably happen, I will try and learn from them all.

Investment Framework

I’d describe my investment style to be a constant work in progress(as I’m still learning). I focus on companies that are -

  1. Growing their topline at 30%+
  2. Have some scope for improving margins
  3. Have scope to grow their ROCE
  4. At a reasonable price
  5. Improving WC situation
  6. High conversion of EBIT to CFO

I also maintain a fairly concentrated portfolio of <5-6 stocks. While I agree that the concentration is definitely very high, I will reason out the concentration. The number is loosely based on the stand deviation model for asset classes.

If we take each stock as a separate source of alpha with a 60% correlation, most of the power/safety of diversification is taken by just a few sources of alpha. Of course high concentration has its risks, which I’m willing to take. As of right now(subject to change as I learn) the risk to reward is satisfactory with few stocks.

Another point I’d like to mention is re-rating/multiple expansion.


This is a screenshot from SOIC’s video(couldn’t find the report itself). In periods of 1 years and even 2 years, much of the growth other than topline and margin expansion is multiple expansion(a change of narrative). Sometimes I ride a trend thats already taken place but in certain cases I like to find companies that can re-rate and show some multiple expansion. Many times a case can be made for multiple expansion on the back of ROCE growth in the future.
Usually if the re-rating has taken place it leads to muted stock movement unless held for very long term.

I also have a higher rate of churn. I don’t buy stocks for long term, or rather I don’t see the point for my small capital to not take advantage of the fact that I can move in and out of stocks in a flash. So I don’t like to tag myself as a long term investor. I’d like to further elaborate this point by giving the example of Warren Buffett.
In his early career(pre partnership days, right after meeting Ben Graham), he would buy and sell stocks rapidly, even more than the quoted 400 stocks in a decade(number is from partnership where he averaged 31% in alpha), before which he did 50% in alpha over the Dow. As an investor, I do believe an edge can be made by having different holding periods as compared to institutions, which is why I don’t prefer to constrain myself to short term/long term, wherever XIRR is visible/predictable to a reasonable degree I will hold.

Buffett only shifted to long term quality investing when Charlie Munger convinced him that Berkshire could not be scaled with small cap, high churn investment methods, at which point Buffett made the move to the next best option to hold stocks with a wide moat for the long term.

Coming to a sometimes misunderstood and disregarded form of analysis, Technical Analysis. It seems like an overwhelming amount of fundamental investors use Technical Analysis and Supple/Demand analysis for investing like the legendary Stephen Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, George Soros, Michael Burry, Jack Dreyfus.
I have read both Mark Minervini books, and the classic, “How to make money in stocks” by William O’Neal. I sometimes look into technicals and VCP’s(any form on contraction and tightening towards the right like cup and handles, cups, etc,), confirmed uptrends, channels where one could expect supply or demand etc. It is not a major part of my ideas(eg. bought Krsnaa in a downtrend with high amounts of overhead supply) but I do want to learn it better.

Portfolio

Since I started in October 20th, my portfolio(to date) has returned ~16.8% whereas Nifty started its downfall immediately since then and has returned -9%(I have booked profits in the past in Fineotex Chemicals, Affle, and breakeven on Tanla)

My current portfolio stands as such -

Companies Weightage Ccst
Coffeeday 5.6% 30.1
Gujarat Fluorochem 19.5% 2234
Krsnaa 34% 605.3
Cash 40% N/A
  1. Coffeeday - I bought this at the time I read Intelligent Investor, as it was a net-net. I read through their turnaround plan by management, where they elaborated on some of their assets, and I decided that it could be an asset play and was definitely not a worthless company. When I bought the company they had put Sical Logistics to sale(sold a couple of months back I believe), I believed there was some value to their coffee estates, they had 3300 crores in receivables from MACEL of which I believed atleast some could be recovered, they had a lease from The Jesuits on their corporate building in Bangalore which I believed could be with 100 crores or so. Promoters also never sold their shares(only invocation of pledged shares) and even though the company wasn’t of great quality or health I bought it. I do plan on selling(results today).

  2. Gujarat Fluoro - The thread in valuepickr will do much mroe justice than I can.

  3. Krsnaa - I have a full thesis on Krsnaa here and on website [KRSNAA.pdf (72.7 KB)]. But mainly, the diagnostic sector has had a bad time for a while now, and Krsnaa is the company least susceptible to undercutting in the B2C segment while also the fastest growing diagnostics company. The also have pretty low utilisation rates, when the utilisation rates rise operating leverage comes into play. It was also comparatively cheaper than other business(I believe on account of B2G receivables concerns even though govt has always paid out in the past decade)

There are a few companies that I’m tracking right now.

  1. Sandhar Technologies Limited - full thesis here(and on website)Sandhar (1).pdf (152.9 KB) But mostly buying the trough ROCE, OPM when RM costs are likely to fall(interest cycle at bottom, commodity cycle at peak).
  2. SJS - Play on premiumisation and 25% or so topline growth, some operating leverage too.
  3. Rolex Rings - Low Float(6.94% literally) + High DII, Promoter + 22% type growth has proven to be a good recipe in the past.

Out of these companies, Sandhar is the only one that I definitely plan on buying.

Credits

I have learnt a lot from investors like Peter Lynch and Joel Greenblatt(My idol), Mohnish Pabrai, Ashish Kacholia etc.

A few other investors I have learn a lot from include @hitesh2710 sir, @Tar sir, @sahil_vi sir, @ayushmit sir, and of course Ishmohit sir and SOIC team of which I am a member @Worldlywiseinvestors and I have probably learn the most from.

23 Likes

I have no knowledge of the stocks you are invested in, but here is some rudimentary gyaan.

While I do understand your unbridled enthusiasm, my suggestion would be to focus on learning, if you are interested. I know it is hard to practice without a target, but the target here is a moving one, the 50% CAGR. Sometimes we hit the bull’s eye, sometimes we are the victim of someone else’s bet. You would know this as time passes. And from your write-up, I can tell that you have started on a path, gained some knowledge, and you can gain more I believe, summer holidays or not. So don’t think this as a numbers game, this is not, not yet. And if you want to think this as a game, then we are Humpty Dumpty in the middle of Wall and Dalal streets.

And here is one acquaintance you can make, given you both are of the same age, in case you have not already. @Jay_shankarpure

It is wonderful to see youngsters in VP, even makes me wonder what I could have done if all this information, knowledge and avenues are available when I was your age.

You said you believe in the growth story of India, for this I would say - ‘you are India’ :grinning:

Welcome to VP.

13 Likes

The only key point here i would like to mention is to maintain discipline in stock Market and consistency.

1 Like

Another acquaintance @Malhar_Manek is also of your age group.

If we can sustainably achieve 25% over 10-15 years we would create tremendous wealth imo. Running after very high cagr has a risk of taking imprudent decisions which one might not take otherwise. Having said that i do fully understand where you are coming from & do also seek to maximize my cagr (subject to downside risk protection that i want to prioritise)

7 Likes

Yes sir, 50% is ridiculous. Agreed, number 1 will always be survival. Goal has and always will be long term in nature

2 Likes

Very inspired by your journey and Investment Framework @GrowingAlpha . Keep up the great work :+1:.

A lot to learn from teenagers like @GrowingAlpha & @Malkd (The researching skills of Malhar are at another level in terms of finding microcaps & smallcaps )

:raised_hands: :raised_hands:

1 Like

Hey Jay, thanks!
I’m a frequent user of Shodh, especially the capex tracker! Great work!

1 Like

Great that u liked Shodh @GrowingAlpha :raised_hands: . If u have any feedback for Shodh u provide to me on Personal DM

1 Like

Absolutely jay, we’ll keep in touch.
Shodh is a brilliant idea!

1 Like

you Have said that you learnt a lot from Ashish kacholia. Kindly give me some links, sources, books or articles of Ashish Kacholia as I find it very difficult to get anything of Ashish Kacholia. He seems to be extra shy…No media interactions, no blog, nothing. .He is like an invisible person. Sometimes i find him more invisible than Radhakishan damani…Please lead me to some of his works. Thanks in advance. As far as your return expectations of 50% is concerned, from my side no comment, as I myself never got it…

1 Like

Sir this is his latest interview found it on twitter
It might help you

3 Likes

Have exited both Fluorochem and Coffeeday.
Fluorochem at 2850 with 30% profits.
Coffeeday at 59.5 with 60% profits.

Currently the portfolio is as follows -

Companies Weightage Cost
Krsnaa 34% 605.3
Cash 93.75% N/A

The numbers look weird because I’m looking at it as a yearly basis and therefore each position is calculated as against my starting capital. So the realised gains made in Fineotex, Coffeeday, Gfluoro, Tanla(breakeven), Shreepushk(almost breakeven) is not considered as part of the capital employed.

As of returns to date since Oct 20th 2021(when I began), Porftolio has returned 22%(includes realised and unrealised) over capital. The below table compares them.

My PF CNXSMCALLCAP NIFTY50
22% -22% -12%

Now as is evident by my cash position, I’m currently waiting out a further declines in indices for a while. Took the step of selling on the 3rd of June when the Cnxsmallcap showed bearish signs and it has followed through till now. Will wait out another week and deploy into Sandhar Technologies.

This is an edit because I had made a separate post on the selling/PF returns etc but deleted it, and I re-wrote it as part of the TA edit.

I’m currently not in station, and I’m writing this on my Ipad, but the major reasoning of exit on Gujarat Fluorochemicals is technicals(+broad market cues), no more comfort in valuations(valuation differential fro SRF is now non existent), coming FY growth likely to not be as high as other opportunities.


This is a SS from the Ipad, but todays selloff means that more supply is likely to come. I could of course be dead wrong(in fact, I probably am), but I do expect the company to sell off even more with upcoming supply. Lets see how it does in the coming week.
I understand the irony of selling a stock on technical analysis on a forum called Valuepickr but my main objective is to learn no matter the stigma around certain methods and topics. I am also aware that timing the market is very hard with low chances of success.

Of course I have been meaning to sell the company for a while now, only the timing was done on TA. I don’t use TA if fundamental value was there(bought Krsnaa in downtrend and Sandhar isn’t a confirmed uptrend either). I’m likely to replace it with other opportunities. Why pay 40 times earnings for 20-25% type growth when better opportunities like Sandhar are there. If later I find no opportunities I may re-enter the business, I may also re-buy coffeeday.

Hi @GrowingAlpha, I must say your framework is very interesting.
It is good to know that even you prefer maintaining a concentrated portfolio. I also hold/am planning to add some of the stocks you are holding/tracking.

Since you have such a high allocation in Krsnaa, I would like to know your answer the following question:

All the best for your journey in the world of investing!

Hey Valorem, Krsnaa is a b2g(which has its negatives) not heavily b2c dependent.
Krsnaa operates in a space where nobody(atleast not on krsnaas scale) plays.
Also krsnaa’s prices are already lower than every competitor including tata 1mg.
@Chins has shared the numbers on it in krsnaa’s thread.
You can read my full thesis here, it addresses these things.

5 Likes

Well the past week right after I sold due to technical cues has been brutal(-5% & more to come based on charts). Holding significant cash to deploy later has helped in dampening the effect.

But relative strength is visible in auto sector, and more particular to my case, Sandhar & SJS(of course tracking the others too like Lumax, Sterling etc.). Will look into adding them/it soon, a buying opportunity seems to be right around the corner(within 1-2 weeks but not sure).

Financials is a sector that I refuse to touch so won’t be playing the upcoming credit cycle(not that I understand it fully tbh). Outside my :o: of competence, and don’t understand banks much.

Krsnaa is a position that I might have to average down on, but hesitant to do so as it is already a large position, grappling between the value being offered and the downtrend in charts, leaning to fundas but let’s see.

Currently unable/busy to read into new businesses as deeply as I would like to as my new school timings are 8-5 with exams both saturday+sunday. Will take a while to get used to it.

Screening for new ideas is the tedious part, many I stumble on fintwit, some here on this forum, some in superinvestors portfolio(mostly Ashish sir), and some by screening for growth on screener.in.
It would be of great help if people could share any business ideas similar to what I’m looking at(assuming many people are looking at similar businesses), namely -

  1. Improving ROCE profile
  2. Topline growth >30%
  3. A fair conversion of EBITDA into OCF(depends case wise but >60%)

Currently tracking but not looking to buy yet -

  1. Xpro
  2. RPEL
  3. Rolex Rings(removed)
  4. Gravita
  5. Hari Om(removed)
  6. Transpek
  7. Anup
  8. Sudarshan(removed)
  9. Chemcrux
  10. Chemcon
  11. Tarsons

Thank you!

1 Like

To add to this list:

  1. Prevest denpro
  2. Tatva chintan
  3. Ksolves
  4. Shivalik bimetals
  5. Ugro
  6. Mirza international
  7. Kilpest / 3bbb
  8. Kpi green
  9. Saregama

Some with lower topline cagr (20-25%) possibilities but rerating possibilities:

  1. Iifl finance
  2. Idfc / idfc first bank
  3. Mastek
  4. Laurus labs
  5. Niit
  6. Pix transmission
  7. Racl gear tech

Some where bottom-line can grow 30%:

  1. Pds
  2. Intellect design arena

Huge disclaimer : i am invested in 80-90% of these, and closely tracking the rest. I can sell out at any time. Do your own due diligence, build up your own conviction, please do not do mindless cloning. I am not a sebi registered advisor.

9 Likes

Interesting framework.

One question: what you meant by “removed” ? Did you mean, these are removed from your tracking list ? If yes, any specific reason for Rolex ring ?

thanks

Thank you sir, almost all of the businesses I’m aware of, its an interesting list.
Will definitely dig deeper into Shivalik, PDS, Prevest.

Will definitely do my own DD, and again thanks for sharing, very helpful!

1 Like

Removed - not tracking closely, still brush through inv. presentations though.

At any point of time I’m tracking 50-60 companies(all mid/small caps) and most are a quick no. Indian markets, especially on the lower end of m.cap spectrum has an overwhelming number of opportunities. So I have the luxury of saying no, just like b’lore rickshaw walas. Also the list I shared is less than half of all companies I track/looked into, some of which Sahil sir has put in his lists too, some other microcaps, some poor cash flows but good growth etc.

Nothing against Rolex, has a solid funda thesis that will most definitely play out. Also float iirc is 6.5%, which is another thing which interested me, as we have seen the combo of low float(high promoter, DII) + Growth in topline has resulted in expensive vals for the business. But Rolex rings growth is a 17-22% types which is not enough for me as it trades 30x pe rn. Better opportunities available is the main reason. I will mention that the charts are good here, strong demand for the shares.

2 Likes

Check out FIEM Industries, it might meet your CAGR criteria as both growth and re-rating triggers are available. Its an auto-ancillary catering to 2W with presence in lighting, mirrors and plastic accessory segments. In spite of the 2W downturn, the company has grown revenues over the last few years while defending EBITDA margins. ROCE is in a secular uptrend due to increasing asset turns due to LED migration in automobiles.

3Y PAT CAGR has been 19% in a declining industry where their revenues have only grown by a 3% CAGR. Decent spare capacity available. Great working capital discipline and CFO/PAT ratios.

Company has everything lined up for growth + re-rating when the 2W demand scenario improves. Valued at 0.86 P/S, which is not at all expensive.

Wrote a post comparing FIEM to Minda a few days back on the FIEM thread here

1 Like