How would you go about exit from Axiscade? Or You are considering it as a stock for 2-4 year irrespective of the valuations?
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Hi Phreak. It is great to see your post after a long time 
. Your previous posts on Ceinsystech, Bluejet and Axiscade were top notch esp on Ceinsys and Bluejet , however I was slightly sceptical about Axiscade due to valuations but its recent spectacular bull run post government’s increased focus and allocation on defense sector is amazing. I think that Bluejet has lot of potential due to its unique products. BTW I am intrigued by your learning about Music therapy, Can you please put more light on this? I also love to play chess and do quizzing as these activities soothe my mind .Got damn lucky to have reached on hot seat on KBC with big B. 
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Sorry guys I haven’t been active here. I have been disinclined to write and add noise in an environment that is already very noisy. I feel it is very counter-productive and adds very little value. I have hence withdrawn from all social media and focusing on picking up music - which sops up a majority of my time, because unlike anything else I have managed to pick up, this one is genuinely hard since I am not wired for it. Have also been running long distance and reading books quite a bit - probably my best ever pace which seems to be a direct impact of improving focus without social media.
I continue to remain invested in same names and have no recent transactions. Ceinsys result was the best of the lot but i feel the best is yet to come here. 1200 Cr order book with another 800-900 Cr to be added this year and hopefully execution this year will be of the order of 650 Cr which means the closing order book could be in the range of 1400-1500 Cr which would be very healthy. I also like that Surej is being inducted into business and hope the two acquisitions progress well and we get to know more by end of year (which should happen before he takes over from Prashant in Jan '26).
Axiscades has had a slew of order wins and strategic partnerships (MBDA, Indra) and future looks bright. I hope they raise capital in AAIPL and DAC capex finishes as planned this year (phase 1a that is). If things work out they could have a strong hold in both radar electronics and missile electronics (DBF, seeker, onboard avionics) in the near future (which would give them a strong hold in LCA, kusha, brahmos). I like it that they have reduced head count in non-core but still selling of HE completely this year would be a very good sign. Further offsets coming through in MBDA would also be a good sign. Found the PEP related stake reduction a bit absurd though but willing to give a long rope as long as execution is on track (and they don’t sell in open market).
Bluejet has disappointed on the margin front but its nothing abnormal (absorption costing is the norm across the industry). Market was expecting a strong PAT number having followed export data and was rightfully disappointed (since price had run up 20%+ after export data came out). The molecule itself is doing really well growing 60%+ in Europe and strong growth in US as well. It should cross 1 million patients this year and if growth sustains on this base, capacities could get used up quite fast next year. Near term though it needs to be seen how capacities are split between Bluejet and Neuland. Market has adjusted for this and price will probably hang around these levels until clarity emerges on this I feel. There’s a stake sale pending here as well and I hope its done through a QIP and not through open market (There’s simply no liquidity here for the same, at least at current levels).
I see that earnings has become some sort of lottery ticket for quick gains but just as lottery am certain there are more losers than winners following this strategy. I think its important to sit tight when no else appears to be able to.
I don’t have a general market view - it requires indulging in geopolitics which is as noisy and as absurd as macroeconomics. I intend to write and contribute more book reviews in the near future since I have about 100 odd books read but not summarised/reviewed.
Disc: Invested in the names mentioned, no recent transactions.
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Your words reflect the depth of wisdom you possess. It’s people like you who make the ValuePickr forum truly exceptional. We all look forward to your insights with great anticipation.
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since I have about 100 odd books read but not summarised/reviewed
Oh…this number is bigger than all the books I have read in my life…my B. Tech. included 
You are one, and only one, and so I want to say one more time that we all look forward so much to your posts. One request, my sense is that you have acquired deep knowledge across multiple industries like - Pharma/CDMO, Defence, Geo-spatials and many more. When you feel appropriate then please write your qualitative analysis of these industries. For example - what is the structure of the industry, which companies have competitive advantage and why, main products and services, main players, moat if any, risks etc.
Thanks,
Krishna
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You’re an inspiration sir, Happy to see more post on this valuable Phreaks world in valuepickr
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again great insight and teaching
Hi Manoharan Sir . I always love to read your post which reflects your deep thoughts and analytical prowess . This post again served the same .I earlier lacked confidence in holding good well researched stocks but my perspective has now completely changed after observing your in depth research for selecting stocks and then having rock solid conviction to hold those ones in your PF unless your original thesis for holding those got distorted .BTW Your passion for reading books also reignited my lost habit of reading books during my engineering college days . Thanks a ton for sharing all these inspiring things 
.
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@phreakv6, would love to hear your thoughts about Sai Life. I am sure you would have studied it while researching Bluejet :-).
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Hi @phreakv6,
I’ve always loved reading your insights, and I’d love to know your thoughts on the recent rise in yields across the Western world. US 10Y has been above 40 Month EMA since February 2022.
Do you think this trend will continue or even worsen? What will be the broader implications? Given that the U.S. has long been the primary driver of global demand, how could these developments affect the rest of the world? And finally, the old playbook where the Fed cuts rates and equities rally, does it still hold, or has it been fundamentally broken?
If possible, I’d value your perspective on these questions.
If I can try and pitch what i have understood of the above macro situation.
- Post covid there was massive money printing by the US fed which ballooned the Total outstanding debt. It has risen so much as to now the interest expense is as big of the total receipts the US govt is generating.
- This money printing and QE hasn’t resulted in any manufacturing or rebuilding of industrial complex in the USA. US has also realized that it cannot even take a near peer or any big power in a war like situation (proved in the Ukraine Russia war). It also now cannot afford to be part of long wars which require continuous funding.
- Here comes the tariff and the whole game of reversing the capital flows where in US consumer has been acting as the consumer of last resort. All the trade surplus nations specially China have managed to become the manufacturing hubs at the expense of USD being the reserve currency and the surpluses being invested in T-bill of USA.
- Now the empire is vulnerable and also its military is pretty dependent on China rare earth metals for further stock piling and manufacturing. Thats why till date China has been able to negotiate way better than other countries when it comes to tariffs.
- No country would try and blow up its bond market but it’s also pretty clear to the treasury investors that US bonds aren’t that storage of safety, hence the rise in bond yields.
- The feasible way to manage the current system is fiscal dominance along with inflating away debt. For this the USD has to be sacrificed along with cut in interest rates. Thats why the DXY is in a secular downtrend along with the push by trump to force the fed to cut rates as soon and fast as possible.
- This also paves the way for GOLD/Bitcoin to act as the new neutral reserve currency status as these two cannot be printed endlessly and reprice themselves as and when more fiat currency gets printed.
- US will try and manage the long end of the long-term T-bills and sacrifice their currency for this.
Still trying to know and learn more of this macro situation. Sahil Sharma has written a long thread on the same few months back.
Thanks
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I did a presentation on similar topic, that I uploaded to VP, should it interest. One startling fact about massive money printing by the US: Half of all US dollars ever created were printed in the last 4 years.
The presentation below
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Hi Bharani Sir (@phreakv6),
If and when you get a chance, could you please share your views/take on the CFO resignations at Ceinsys? 3 CFOs resigned in 3 years with the latest one resigning couple of weeks back. How do you view these KMP changes?
Thanks in advance,
Ramanjan
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Dear Phreak
Many tks for your most useful inputs.
Any updates on Bluejet. Fall has been relentless after nos . how is latest export data ? hear asperion doing quite well in US.whats your view n advice on Bluejet as many VPers invested
Promoters are over 3 generation pedigreed one with good track record and co also as can be seen in enclosed writeup
Rgds
Vivek
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@sushant1 kkrai @suresh_s @justanoop22 @rupak007 - Thanks for the kind words.
@buyrightsittight - I am yet to complete work on Sai. Will post if i ever finish it
@avneesh - I have no view on yields. I think @dj123 and @sougataG have covered it very well.
@rb91 - Yes this has been an irritant. I think the nature of the business has changed so much here every year due to acquisitions and changes in focus. Also currently i think the US acquisitions weren’t being guided by the current CFO mr. Sabharwal (Which is the primary job of a CFO). They have the ex-CFO of Rahi already on their payrolls and he appears to be the one driving the acquisitions. I don’t see Mr.Sabharwal in the concalls either, so i don’t think we would be missing much in terms of his contributions. If future business is going to be 70% international from the 5% now (mainly driven by the acquisitions), i feel Kelly Yagi might become the new CFO when Surej takes over
@vivek_6954 - I don’t think the fall is only due to margin drop. It probably was substantially in the initial bit due to failed expectations, but it has also probably been exacerbated by there being no BA in July exports. This has however happened in the past in a couple of months if i remember right (maybe March '25). August data isn’t complete but there hasn’t been any as of the first 20 days (BA exports are usually between 24-30th, in the last week) - so the only thing that can save the stock which is so much export data driven is some appearance of BA in the data. BA is currently the cocaine of people punting here.
What I personally think is there’s a inventory de-stocking at Esperion, partly because of handover of some part of the supply chain to DSE. ESPR was controlling supply of all market until now but later in the year they are going to be handing over Europe control to DSE as per their calls. This will help reduction of inventory at ESPR (good thing if you are an ESPR investor - you can see the stock has done so well in the last month due to this). Now how DSE handles its own supply chain and when Esperion starts restocking (they will need supplies only for the markets they are controlling - which is only US currently and going forward Japan, Canada, Australia, Israel etc.) remains to be seen. Its very clear based on exports that Neuland has a relationship with DSE - whether that’s an exclusive relationship (without Fareva in the mix) again remains to be seen.
Another thing to note is EU:US is something like 65:35 (or 70:30) if am not mistaken - which means if Neuland gets exclusivity with DSE, the worst case for BlueJet is a big drop in run rate from current levels (once Esperion starts restocking that is). But US growth has picked up considerably this year due to better insurance terms and over time, there’s a good possibility that Japan, Canada etc. bring Esperion’s market control share to 50:50 and if Fareva continues supply to ESPR - BJ might come back even in this scenario in a few quarters.
I have personally not done anything here post results - I have only around 10% now after the 35% drawdown from top (10% dd from my avg cost price around 720) and also due to relative outperformance of other stocks in pf. I am comfortable with this position size and might increase/decrease it after I have better clarity - or might end up buying Neuland as well which has always been on my radar (but at a better valuation).
Market has been sideways and boring for me so I am not spending much time. Due to good performance of Shaily earlier in the year followed by Axiscades/Ceinsys, the pf has been up between 15-25% up for the calendar year. I don’t expect much more and feel it will be sideways for the rest of the year too. Would be happy to end the year around these levels.
Disc: I am a novice and not qualified to advice. Please do your own research
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@phreakv6 Given the phase 3 results for Orforiglipron, do you still think orals are a big risk to Shaily’s business in the near future? Seems like the effectiveness of weight loss is lower for oral GLPs in comparision to injectibles. This is the link for phase 3 trial result: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lillys-oral-glp-1-orforglipron-104500826.html
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@birsha_haldar Orforglipron weight loss of 12.4% is poor in comparison to wegovy’s 15% and certainly the expectation was for it to be on par with Wegovy (that’s what was in the price - so the stock took a beating on the day of trial result). I think it is still a neutral and not a positive for Shaily. What would have been positive is if it had to be discontinued due to TEAE (Treatment emergent adverse effects). Since its tolerated on par with other GLP-1s, it will still very likely get into market.
With a weight loss on par with wegovy, lilly would have had tremendous pricing power and margins - with it being a sub-par product, now lilly will have to compete on price and forsake margins. This is bad for Lilly but when forced to cut prices, the weight loss per $ spent would come into play. Especially in emerging markets, this would be played based on affordability and volumes - so here I feel sema generics are still not in the clear from Orforglipron threat - for someone weighing 80 kgs - orfor might reduce weight to 70 kgs while generic sema will reduce it to 68 kgs - when you see that way, its not much of a difference to the end user. Now if Orfor is priced on par or cheaper than generic sema, it can still be a very tight competitor since biologics will need expensive manufacturing, sterile packaging, pen, cold-chain etc.
There are other orals as well like VK2735 which has also disappointed, esp. since it has lot of adverse reactions with a efficacy lower than wegovy. The other oral small molecules by Structure, Roche are in phase 2 and can be in the market by 2029 or so. So at this point, in the near term orals, only Orforglipron is a credible threat to generic sema in emerging markets, especially given Lilly’s muscle and business acumen. In developed markets, Orfor might be used by payers as leverage to cut costs of wegovy. PBMs make these decisions and if Lilly offers them strong discounts, they can under cut wegovy on price and capture market share in developed markets as well (esp. US).
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