Lessons from History: Global Equity Parallels: 1920–1930 vs 2020–till now

[sougataG]

Made this presentation for our Navi Mumbai Investors Group. The idea for this presentation got inspired when I noticed the eerie similarities between the decade of the roaring 1920’s and the present decade of 2020’s, while reading a few books on economic/ social history, namely

Principles for Dealing With The Changing World Order by Ray Dalio
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by by Carmen M. Reinhart, and Kenneth S. Rogoff
The Storm Before the Calm: America’s Discord, the Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond by George Friedman
End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter Turchin

and few more. Hope you will like it. Comments/ thoughts welcome

D: Please note I am not an economist or an investment advisor. And it is not investment advice.

[Ayush_Singh]

Nice presentation.

I do not agree with Market Imbalance slide completely.
I believe we should exclude China from GDP and global equity and then see.
The reason being China is like an anamoly where the equity market is severely suppressed due to it being mostly govt. controlled and they can simply wipe companies or take control if they want without any issue.

We always have to have a separate slide(one with and one without China) if the anamoly is as big as China if we want to see the real imbalance.

Just my thoughts.

[sougataG]

Interesting point you have raised. The only reason the slide is there is because when you are looking at world GDP or Market Cap, I don’t think it would be wise to exclude the world’s second largest economy and then expect fair picture. Thank you for your comments.