Bluejet healthcare - Boutique CDMO

Prdnt_investor · September 2, 2025, 5:20pm

Analysis of recent fall from @phreakv6

I don’t think the fall is only due to margin drop. It probably was substantially in the initial bit due to failed expectations, but it has also probably been exacerbated by there being no BA in July exports. This has however happened in the past in a couple of months if i remember right (maybe March '25). August data isn’t complete but there hasn’t been any as of the first 20 days (BA exports are usually between 24-30th, in the last week) - so the only thing that can save the stock which is so much export data driven is some appearance of BA in the data. BA is currently the cocaine of people punting here.

What I personally think is there’s a inventory de-stocking at Esperion, partly because of handover of some part of the supply chain to DSE. ESPR was controlling supply of all market until now but later in the year they are going to be handing over Europe control to DSE as per their calls. This will help reduction of inventory at ESPR (good thing if you are an ESPR investor - you can see the stock has done so well in the last month due to this). Now how DSE handles its own supply chain and when Esperion starts restocking (they will need supplies only for the markets they are controlling - which is only US currently and going forward Japan, Canada, Australia, Israel etc.) remains to be seen. Its very clear based on exports that Neuland has a relationship with DSE - whether that’s an exclusive relationship (without Fareva in the mix) again remains to be seen.

Another thing to note is EU:US is something like 65:35 (or 70:30) if am not mistaken - which means if Neuland gets exclusivity with DSE, the worst case for BlueJet is a big drop in run rate from current levels (once Esperion starts restocking that is). But US growth has picked up considerably this year due to better insurance terms and over time, there’s a good possibility that Japan, Canada etc. bring Esperion’s market control share to 50:50 and if Fareva continues supply to ESPR - BJ might come back even in this scenario in a few quarters.