AFAICR, It is probably exclusive to eCommerce and also sent to Gym trainers for recommendation. Search at Amazon India.
I am amazed that you didnāt heard about go cheese brandā¦ it is second best seller of cheese after amul. And yes, agreedā¦ Avvatarā¦ not so popularā¦
PAT for Q2 FY20 stood at Rs. 285 million as compared to Rs. 304 million in Q2 FY19. Revenue growth of 11.6% you.
Difficult to achieve their FY20 targetsā¦ double digit EBITDA margin on full year basis is almost impossible looking at current scenarioā¦ Also, I didnāt get why have they blamed prolonged monsoon for Q2ā¦ Q2 is supposed to be completely covered by monsoonā¦ It is prolonged for Q3 and not Q2ā¦ They have also removed the slide for their FY20 targets.
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They should get semi-FMCG valuation. Good branding and value addition. Milk procurement is mostly out-sourced through a network of middle-men. So, RCEP or any other FTA-like agreement of which Milk is a part, should only be beneficial for any processor. I do not like cheese, the usual variety has ~50% pure fat. I like cottage cheese 
Disc: was invested in 2018, made a fresh entry today.
Q2 results appear weak. Reasons cited: higher milk prices and disruptions in milk availability caused by prolonged monsoons which seems to have -vely impacted their gross margins. Now, on account of lower-than-estimated earnings in the 1st half of this year, it may be difficult for them to achieve their full year guidance. This may also have induced them to reduce their margin guidance to 9-9.5% for FY20.
The sharp stock correction makes the valuation look undemanding. The management is also trying to play its part to support the valuation, going by their intent to reduce the pledged shares and the new CEOs talk on how they intend gong forward. How they manage to execute their strategy going forward, without attrition at the top, would dictate where this stock could head over the longer term. In the immediate term, i think the stock has taken support in the 130-135 price range.
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Big positiveā¦
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Ratings on the amazon for Avvtaar is not very good:(
not invested
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Reducing pledge or buying more, which makes sense ?
Go through the comments. In most cases High Price, which is in line (sometimes more) with its MNC competitors, has been the reason for poor rating.
The promoter has money, apparently, and chooses to buy some stock from the open market rather than revoking equivalent amount of pledge! In my assessment, the promoter is trying to coerce retail investors to buy on the back of a disclosed promoter buying. Else why would he not utilise that money to revoke the pledge rather? We have known sufficient stories of how pledged stock kills a stock price.
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Value added products, specially in consumer discretionary space, need strong branding and positioning. Both these require deep pockets. This particular segment (Whey proteins) is a niche market and dominated by overseas brands. To compete in such a segment (MNC peers and niche market), one needs a lot of conviction and confidence; which Parag has demonstrated by launching Avataar. Branding is a time consuming process and it calls for a lot of efforts to grab market share. Ratings, on social media and aggregator sites, are a part of this process. The direction in which such ratings move implies the direction of the product acceptance with its target audience.
Why spread yourself so thinā¦ have so many products and brands with few performing. should stick to knitting. make a robust business and then go out experimenting in Gulab Jamuns
There was a question in the latest conference call on pledge of shares etc.
Total Loan amount was 55 crores. Now it is 38 crores. 100% was used to buy shares in the open market. Promoter apparently pledged shares to get this loan. Disclosing lender is a personal question was the response. But LTV seems very low assuming that the loan amount was only Rs.55 crores.
Link to the transcript
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-paragmilk-nse-earnings-204851002.html
Ceo missing the call and they saying he is on medical leave, seems like there is some problem
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Net Profit for FY19 is Rs. 115 Crore. Following are few important items impacting it:
- Bad Debt write off + provision - Rs. 46 Cr (@mmvravindra - already highlighted this). This is no way in alignment with Hatsun or Heritage. This causes concern around the reliability of accounts.
- The profit is after including the subsidy-incentives of Rs. 57 Cr- (1) Industrial Promotion Subsidy under Package Scheme of Incentives, 2013 amounting to Rs. 21 Cr (2) Milk subsidy amounting to Rs. 18 Cr (3) Export subsidy amounting to Rs. 18 Cr
- Net Profit without subsidy-incentives would have been loss in last few years (FY17). Also, other dairy companies donāt have any meaningful exports. Singapore idea is not something encouraging.
- There is an item in other revenue, āChange in Fair Value of live stockā - Rs. 6 Cr (FY19) and Rs. 8 Cr (FY20). This is not a conservative accounting policy. They seem to be recognising reversals in excess of previous years impairment provisions.
Other point:
- During FY17 and FY18 - Material cost as % to sales went down by 9% and this is offset by approximately equal increase in manufacturing costs by 8% over. Again this can not be substantiated by comparison with other dairy companies.
- Other points highlighted by other members like 3 high profile exits and new appointments. This all sounds like familiar with wherever capital was destroyed.
- Claims related to market share in cheese are in contradiction to Nielsen data. This may be so for all FMCG brands/companies - not experienced to comment on it.
- On the brighter side, reviews of āAvatarā brand products were good on YouTube. Except the pricing part of it.
This looks like a story to be observed closely and learned. I have a tracking position at loss.
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**One more red flag that I observed in latest concall when asked repeatedly about new CEO absence **
Okay. And my last question is, last quarter, we had our CEO, Mr. Venkat and this quarter he is not on thecall. Any specific reason as to why we canāt continue with same practices, the way he explained last quarter?
So any reason for not present on this call?
No, he is basically not keeping well and therefore he is unable to join this call unfortunately today. But thathas nothing to do with the overall strategy and the policies that we had discussed over full last quarter.And as we were discussing all 3 questions, we are continuing in the same line and we have seen some early**results out of it as well. So these are quite encouraging and we are moving in that direction.
Sir, it is not about continuation. I think he said that we are working on our product strategies and all. Andmaybe next call will be able to better explain in terms of what products you want to push, what we want todiscontinue or something like that. So are we planning a separate
I think that you refer to the Chairmanās speech earlier as well as the whole discussion that we have hadduring the last discussion. And today, a lot of water has flown under the bridge and the situation hasbecome tighter and tighter going by the day. So based on that, while all those initiatives are going on, theexact results that are coming out of them are suboptimal in nature and we donāt have complete clarity interms of those. And as we were discussing earlier, once the situation normalizes, we will have a betterhandle over the situation. And therefore, the exact nature of where forwards will also become more clearer
as of now.
Yes. He is still around. Yes.Itās 3 times, my friend.
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Q3 fy20 concall must had the disclaimer - ājust for laughsā. 
Beating about the bush literally throughout the concall.
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Have a small investment in Parag. I am not sure whether to sell and exit or just hold for a slightly better value. My sense so far in my brief investment journey has been that in India it is very difficult to trust small cap companies. There is a huge risk that you take when investing in small caps. Some work out, however many do not.
p.s. Massive drop today just after I posted :). Looks like under small cap with itās own issues.
Hello.
What is the red flags in balance sheetā¦ company have positive cfo. Receivable days in control. and product can seen in the market too